ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, MORETTI

FIRST RACE

CHARLOTTE WEBLEY dropped last time and showed her speed to get the trip she wanted but was simply no match for the favored winner, who finally got out of the gate and pulled the trip she needed to break her maiden; doesn’t face anyone as good as that rival this time and looks like the horse to beat. REMOANE faced to top one back in March while making her career debut and raced on gamely to about midstretch before tiring; goes turf to dirt and drops in class while adding lasix for the first time. MISS ROSS has had her chances already and is vulnerable to her more lightly-raced rivals going forward but she did have a rough go of it off the layoff last time when shuffled out to last and then being forced around very side to the stretch.

SECOND RACE

BALLAGH ROCKS isn’t all that trustworthy as a win candidate but he has plenty of back class, can clearly still run, and projects to get the right trip here in a race that lacks early speed; being coupled with Tiribhuvan makes him unbettable but I couldn’t find anyone else to fall for. NORTH DAKOTA is the one I really wanted to try, as he appears to have improved significantly in recent races for Shug and should be a price; the lack of pace works against him and this is obviously a big step up in class. Not sure I loved the stateside debut from TRIBHUVAN, though he did make a wide move before gaining ground in a race that didn’t set up well for him, and he gets a pass for the Fort Marcy where his rein broke early on; was finally getting better at the end of last year in France.

THIRD RACE

CENTER AISLE looked good winning first time out with a good finish while putting away next-out winner Say Moi and she had an excuse last time when breaking poorly and then going greenly in the stretch after making a wide run off the turn; the dirt horses from this barn are not nearly as reliable as the turf runners, though they are bet just as heavily, but I’ll go with this filly’s potential in a race where the likely favorite could be vulnerable. FRANK’S ROCKETTE is that favorite, and she deserves to be based on her overall form and her improved figures as a 3yo; she has found a way to settle several times along the way while appearing to lack much fight when challenged but she is clearly the horse to beat. MISS PEPPINA isn’t fast enough to be competitive here - yet - but she looked good winning first time out, mostly on her own power, and she did not run poorly in either the Adirondack or Spinaway when behind FRANK’S ROCKETTE; it hasn’t been a very effective move recently, but Gullo has had a ton of success going turf to dirt over the years.

FOURTH RACE

BAY STREET MONEY caught yielding ground vs. a big field in his debut and was taken back to last early before making a mild inside run through the turn and racing on evenly late; had a right to need that race and he is bred to stretch out, which can not be said for some of the others in here. MR JAGGERS was ahead of BAY STREET MONEY when third-best last time in a race that was an improvement over this 2yo form; likely to go favored once again and he looks like the horse to beat. BAIL OUT is tough to take on top after settling for secondbest is six of his 12 turf starts but he has figures that fit, can get the distance, and will be a price due to his low-profile trainer.