ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, DOUBLE CROWN

FIRST RACE

WONDER BLONDY has yet to run a bad race on turf, drops to a new low, and can win this if she can stay in touch with what figures to be a moderate pace. COUPLE OF NIKKIS has better tactical speed than the top pick and could make amends after just missing as the favorite in a similar spot. VEER came up empty after forcing an honest pace for $16K and won’t mind the shape of the race. She could be dangerous in a race that figures to unfold at a slow clip.

SECOND RACE

TOWN POLICY came back with a couple of sharp works after not being much of a factor in his first start since 2018. He looks primed for this, though, and he certainly won’t mind the move back to dirt. STAR JUANCHO faded after being between horses in a three-horse duel in a tougher spot. He’ll appreciate the easier company and could get a nice trip sitting just off what should be an honest and contested pace. E J’S REVENGE hasn’t fired in two starts here but he is coming back quickly for Taylor who since 2017 has a 30% strike rate and $2.43 ROI with horses coming back in a week or less.

THIRD RACE

UNCORK THE BOTTLE might not have cared for a track rated good in his latest and won’t mind being back on turf where he hasn’t been worse than second in three starts. His race at Tampa two back puts him squarely in the mix and he ran well over this surface the only time he tried it. JUSTINTHENICKOTIME ran a decent race in the English Channel and the runner-up came back to finish second in a Grade 2 at Belmont.He fits nicely here after just missing in a first-level allowance race with a $75K claiming option. GIVEMETWENTY easily owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure, but he got away with pretty slow fractions and that probably won’t happen here. Nonetheless, it was a big effort and being lightly raced he figures to improve in his second try at a middle distance.

FOURTH RACE

CRYSTALINA is the most consistent in the field and she is also versatile so Fuentes will have more than one option. She gets in light and could be tough to run down if she gets her head in front early. LET’S GO LUNA has improved substantially in her last two and with a decent interim work she could be coming up to a peak effort in her third start for Minguet. BUST OUT LADY was fractious in the gate and then came up empty after chasing the speed from along the rail in her latest. She drops to a new low and it is encouraging to see Zayas keep the faith. Maybe he knows something we don’t.

FIFTH RACE

SWANEE BEACH came up empty after forcing the pace in her debut in a $25K maiden claimer that was washed off the turf. She’s had a couple of decent works since and figures to move forward with a race behind her. She is also a half-sister to 3-time turf winner Paynter’s Boy so she could take a shine to the surface. LADY LARKO improved when she moved to turf in a key race in just her second start at Tampa and that was another good effort in a $16K maiden claimer here. She could be dangerous in the third start of her current form cycle. CACTUS KITTEN is bred for the lawn and debuts for Maker who can have them ready to go. The past five years he is just 9%

with horses debuting in maiden claiming races on turf that were a mile or longer, though. Nonetheless, Zayas is attracted so we’ll assume she’s live.

SIXTH RACE

The 4-time winner LOOKINLIKEAQUEEN only got beat by 2 lengths in her latest despite getting off to a rocky start and having a less then stellar trip from there. She comes back at the same level for Crichton who has solid number with claimed horses running back the first time. GHOSTLY BEAUTY also had a rough trip while finishing a neck behind the top pick. She got bumped around early and then went pretty wide around the stretch turn. DYNATOWN, the runner-up in the same race, has a right to move forward in her second start of the year. All three do their best running late and there should be speed coming back to them.

SEVENTH RACE

PLUM FUNNY has been working like he can run a bit and being out of Plum Pretty, who won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Grade 1 Apple Blossom, he probably can. The homebred son of Distorted Humor is trained by Ralph Nicks who the past five years has an 18% strike rate and $1.87 ROI with horses debuting in maiden special weight races. PERLMAN had rough trips in his first two starts but has been working well for Ward who has strong numbers in all the relevant categories. Perlman is also by Distorted Humor and is the first foal out of 2-time Grade 3 winner. BREWMEISTER finished nicely after getting squeezed back to last at the start of his first start this year. He is eligible to move forward as is ELUSIVE EDGE who was the runner-up in his debut at Tampa.

EIGHTH RACE

LA INCONDICIONAL showed she belongs at this level with a solid third despite getting hung out wide on the first turn in her first try with open company. She could be a handful with a better trip. Once again she drew a tough post, though. PICASSO MOON makes her first start for Dobles who has solid numbers with new runners and looks like the one to beat if the race gets moved to dirt. No wins on turf, but she is cutting her price in half and could do some damage if she clears early. KYLLA INSTINCT has back class and is eligible to move forward in her second start back.

NINTH RACE

DON’T GET KHOZY gets tested for class but with four wins in her last five stars she could be up to the task. Her latest in a $75K optional claimer was particularly impressive. Once again she should have an honest pace to work with. The likely favorite BOERNE is coming off a solid effort in the $75K Game Face, is the main speed and could be gone if she gets away on her own. ADDILYN had a rough start when she finished third in the Game Face. She probably isn’t the winner but at the least should be part of any exotics ticket.

TENTH RACE

TWENTY FOUR SEVEN couldn’t have gone much wider around the first turn and then never got close to the rail in his narrow loss for $16K in his first start for Joseph. Expecting a big effort here and with a better trip he could turn the tables on FARLEY who overcame adversity to win the race. FARLEY looked good winning two back and not surprisingly faded after chasing a fast pace in a tougher spot May 1. He’s had time to recover and should be right there if Prado can get him to settle early. AMERICAN NINJA had to steady sharply going into the stretch turn and then rallied to just miss in a slightly longer race at this level. He could win this wide-open event if he shows up with his best stuff. SIR SEAMUS nd moves into open company but he is a sharp horse right now and could be dangerous if he clears early.

ELEVENTH RACE

DOUBLE CROWN was impressive beating 3-5 Grade 1 placed Green Light Go in the $75,000 Roar and has had three solid works since. Easy to imagine him taking another step forward with just three starts behind him. His tactical speed should give him an edge over WITH VERVE who rallied from last to finish third in the Roar. Verve came back to run evenly going a mile in a $100K optional race won by Sole Voilante, a Grade 3 winner who was the runner-up in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. CAJUN BROTHER is perfect sprinting, looks like the main speed, and with a clean break could take them a long way.

TWELFTH RACE

CHILL HAZE has had a couple of decent works since his dull effort as the heavy chalk for $16K and could come back firing for Barboza who the past five years has a 44% strike rate with claimed horses running back the first time. DR. SAMADI ran a huge race in his debut and his pedigree suggests he should easily handle the added distance. No surprise if he gets up in time. CURLINGO could win this, but it would be hard to take a short price on a horse that cost $900K and is dropping into a $25K maiden claimer in just his second start. Strong numbers for Pletcher in all the relevant categories but the drop after just one race is a big concern. Plus, he did not not show much in his debut.