ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, FLOWMOTION

FIRST RACE

EMBEED is kin to Dupree, who earned over $300K and won eight races, all dirt sprints, and he was also stakes placed; this colt should offer some value despite the fact that he sports some decent works for trainer Kathleen DeMasi, who wins at a solid rate with firsters. ROCK ON LUKE is the one to beat on the strength of the 80 Beyer he earned in his first and only start, back in November; layoff clearly a concern but he probably wouldn’t have to repeat that effort to win this. MOONSHINE NOW didn’t break well in that debut run at Saratoga; makes his seasonal debut with Lasix added and 2019 leading rider Paco Lopez aboard for trainer Christophe Clement, connections that make him a threat by default.

SECOND RACE

THE ZIP FACTOR was heavily beat in that debut, considering trainer Jane Cibelli doesn’t normally have her runners cranked to win first time out (the barn is 0-for37 first time out in Maiden Special Weight races), and that can be viewed as a testament to this colt’s ability; he didn’t get to show much in his bow after he hit the gate at the start and was floated out down the backstretch by a rival firster racing greenly but he adds blinkers for his dirt bow and can be expected to improve today with that first race under his belt. ANOTHER SHOT is the first starter out of the dam, who was winless in two starts, but he has some works that hint at ability, which is always a good sign for Kelly Breen-trained firsters; board tells more. PICKIN’ TIME is also from Breen, who names Paco Lopez on this colt; kin to six winners, including the stakes-placed Royal Urn, but he has to deal with the rail, a tricky post for an inexperienced runner, especially at this distance.

THIRD RACE

JO JO’S CANDY has been away for 16 months but she lands in a very good spot for her return, as she is a proven turf sprinter in a race that’s light on same and she can use her speed to her best advantage; encouraging that she’s not plummeting in class for her first start back, and this is a high-percentage outfit. Trainer Jose Delgado also is represented by IRISH FIX, who failed to threaten in his seasonal debut at Tampa back in March and was subsequently shelved again; that was against much better than these, however, and he has back figures that fit well. SCARFREE was caught up in a race-long duel and was also forced to steady in his first start in over a year; dangerous if able to take a step forward off that effort.

FOURTH RACE

Like The Zip Factor in race two, DR. DOYLE moves from turf to dirt for trainer Jane Cibellu, who wins at a high rate (26%) with that angle, as well as with horses off this type of intermediate layoff (24%, with a $3.35 ROI); dam posted all of her three wins on the main track and while two of her runners were best on the turf she did produce Nellie Mac, who won five races on the main track. ONE MORE NIGHTCAP was well bet for his bow but he was fractious prior to the start, and that was a race run over a sloppy strip; lots of upside despite the layoff for trainer Pat McBurney, who does well with

horses making their 2nd career start. SCOOP THE

CASH has proven speed and draws inside and will take them as far as he can under Antonio Gallardo, leading rider at the recently-concluded Tampa Bay Downs meet.

FIFTH RACE

CHANNEL STUFFER settled for the show as the favorite when last seen but he was hurt by a controlled pace, set by GENTLEMAN JOE, and he figures to improve in this spot given a better pace scenario, which he should well get; makes his third start off the layoff today. MARKSMAN may be at his best going longer than this but he has to be considered threat based on his best figures; this is his first start since October but he is a threat if ready, especially if he gets the expected fast, contested pace up front. FAME TO FAMOUS wasn’t badly beaten in a stakes race at Gulfstream last time out, and the resulting Beyer was the best of his career; clearly a threat off that last figure, and if he’s able to run back to it he’s a legitimate win candidate at a very square price.

SIXTH RACE

SKY PROPOSAL is another intriguing Breen firster with the kind of works that strongly suggest she has some speed; dam won her own debut as a 2-year-old and went on to place in Florida Stallion stakes races and she has produced five winners from as many starters, including Puntrooskie, a graded stakes-winning sprinter who earned over $433K. SIBA has deceptively good breezes showing for her debut and she figures to be overlooked some in the wagering due to low profile connections; unraced dam produced a debut winner in Lettherainsettleit. LOST LAKE’s dam won three races overseas, on turf, and sire Noble Mission was also best on the grass but she’s been working swiftly for this; board tells the story.

SEVENTH RACE

DANGERFIELD has seen his Beyers dip of late but he hardly ran bad races in his last two despite running 1 3/4 miles two back and facing better in his latest; he’ll be looking to make the last run but there is speed to his inside and out and he should be well spotted behind the leaders under Lopez. CALCULATED RISKER is another who figures to be well spotted off a contested pace; like the top pick, he emerges from an optional claimer/starter race at Churchill, and he was flattered when the winner returned to score again in his next start (84

Beyer). OLDFASHIONED CLUB will be up close or on the pace from the start; he does like to win, with six victories in 15 career starts, and he comes off a game try at Delaware Park in his latest.

EIGHTH RACE

MARKET BUBBLE makes his return from the layoff for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr., who does well with runners returning from a break; this gelding has speed but can also rate and make one run, and that versatility should give jockey Jose Ferrer some options as he tries to work out a trip in a race with a fairly uncertain race flow. BEBEAU was rained off the turf at Gulfstream last time but he didn’t run a bad race at all, settling for the place after dueling for the lead from the start; this is his preferred surface, however, as evidence by his Beyers, and he should be a forward factor from the start today. LION CHARMER has a decent late kick and would benefit greatly from a lively pace up front; some of his recent races at Tampa proved to be productive, yielding several next-out winners.

NINTH RACE

LIZ’S CABLE GIRL returns to her favorite strip and to the statebred ranks and she looms formidable if she’s able to run to the Beyers she was posting here last summer, when she won the 2019 edition of the Spruce Fir; off the board in all three starts at the Oaklawn meet but that was against tougher, and she can be expected to fare better with the locals in her first start for trainer Tom Amoss. PRANCING WARRIOR may be able to shake loose in the opening stages, and that type of trip is always an advantage, particularly over this track; needs to fire her best shot to win it but that becomes easier to do if she’s able to get clear and set her own pace. BOOMERANG MISS returns to Monmouth and statebreds, and she has run well here in the past; claimed out of her latest at Turf Paradise by trainer Michael Moore with an eye on this meet, and perhaps this race.

TENTH RACE

FLOWMOTION ships up from Gulfstream with some of the best Beyers in the field and coming off a loss where she had a very legitimate excuse, lacking room at a pivotal point in the race; given clear sailing from her outside post she figures to be running late under Lopez, with trainer Jane Cibelli potentially looking at a very nice day, with several live runners. SMALL HOPE likes to run 2nd but she’s a win candidate in her first start off the short rest for trainer Kent Sweezey; she draws wide, which is no bargain, but she has the tactical speed to get position. BIG WONDER is even wider but she’s also quick, and she could clear the field with aggressive early handling; overall win record makes it tough to use her on top but she’s an exotics threat if she continues to improve in terms of Beyers.

ELEVENTH RACE

CHUB ON DA RUN makes his 2020 debut but he has been working nicely toward this return from the layoff, and he’s obviously a threat based on the Beyer he posted when last seen; has the speed to stay close and may get first run at expected leader MORNING JACKPOT. The latter might be able to establish a clear lead in the opening stages, a luxury he has not yet enjoyed; given that scenario he figures tough to reel in, though much of that depends on the speed shown by firsters such as CRAFTY DON. The son of Don Six is kin to two multiple winners in Boomerang Miss (eight wins, $169K earnings) and Optic Way (six wins, $272K) and lures Lopez for this.

TWELFTH RACE

CLIFFY could not catch up with loose speed and eventual winner Ed’s Dog in his latest but he should get a contested pace to chase in this finale; figures to be well spotted behind the confirmed frontrunners from the start from his inside post. LET’S RUMBLE and HIGHWAYTWENTYSEVEN are the main pacesetters; the former seems the more likely of the two to shake loose, and he could prove tough to catch if that is the case, but the latter does draw inside of his main pace foe and the Beyer he posted two back gives him strong credibility.