ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, RAGGEDY DOLL PEACH

FIRST RACE

SATELLITE just ran OK here and now goes second time this dirt which often helps. New barn is in the mix and Broberg as good as any (27% off the claim). We don’t think this race came up all that tough. Eikleberry your clubhouse leader in the jockey standings. MONEY BROKER has some speed but so do a few others so a stalking trip from the 2 hole might work best. Local tab is just fine. LOGAN’S LEOPARD dueled last out and then paid the price. Second time this dirt can only help and we like this inside draw. Any chance the other speeds take a look at his last race and let him go early? Or is this gelding actually better with a target? The 5 or the 6 could show speed so pacewise this race is a real mess. AQUAMARINE exits a key race where 2 of 9 returned to win with figs of 62 and 52.

SECOND RACE

LISTEN TO ROSE beat Oaklawn foes only three back and did so around two turns. We don’t care that he only beat Arky-breds. He actually improved his Beyer when facing first time winners two back and beat four home. Then he comes here and runs evenly but still improves his Beyer again. Now he drops in class. WHATA SHOW OFF got some play last out and ran OK. Now he goes third off the layoff. Last summer he got a 75 here but that was in the slop. CANDY WOMPUS closed well last out but that was sprinting. The Van Winkle barn is better than most on the stretch-out at 16%.

THIRD RACE

MADISON’S QUARTERS is a new turf horse. What surface do connections find off the long layoff .... turf. What if this 4YO is better now than as a 3YO? The leading rider knows this filly well. DOUBLE BEE STING got matching Beyers of 69 the last two times that she tried this sod. Those weren’t claimers either. State-bred lures Arrieta and goes third off the break. What if a turf race was the goal since this mare returned to racing? Or at least a route of ground? RAGING GOLD DIGGER is a solid turf horse that has tactical speed and

goes for a 19% turf barn. Eikleberry is the normal jock for this horse but opts for our top pick. Hey, a better price, right?

FOURTH RACE

DREAMING OF BLUE is by a 16% debut sire. Her dam went 15-3-3-1 and earned 84K. This is dam’s first foal. Works are just right and the leading rider gets a leg up all from an outside post. GIVE EM SHADE has speed and will be a price. Plus, she gets in light. Our favorite kind of speed horse. ROSES FOR DOUG just ran better and did so on this dirt. She draws the rail again and Arrieta keeps the faith.

FIFTH RACE

RAGGEDY DOLL PEACH is a homebred and notice that connections find a debut spot where this filly can’t be claimed. Sire gets 11% debut winners. Her dam went 39-8-4-8 and earned 366K. This is dam’s first foal. Lots and lots of works. ZANSHOES finished second versus Oaklawn foes only two back. Special weights before and after were just too tough. The Cline barn is 22% route to sprint. CAUSIN MISCHIEF has improved her Beyer in every start to date. She gets off the rail and adds an extra half furlong. SARJENALLI is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam went 8-1-1-2 and earned 24K. Three of six sibs won.

SIXTH RACE

DEPUTY DORA ran great the last three times that she tried the turf (4, 5, and 6 back). Her last three weren’t bad but we have pocket excuses for all of them. She should be fully acclimated to here and gets good race flow. BENTLEY’S DREAM tries two turns on the grass for the first time. Why not? Her back class is better than all. GINGER ROSE is versatile and often a good price. She has always liked this sod. Her most recent was a Beyer top. What if she just got good? Connections could have found an easier spot but they didn’t. HISSY MISSY is by a 0 for 14 debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. One of five sibs won on the grass with another hitting the board. A GIRL LIKE ME is by a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam missed the board in only turf start and this is her first grass foal. PARTY LIGHTS is by a 7% debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the green. Lone grass sib is 2-0-0-0.

SEVENTH RACE

WATER PATROL just won for fun and just missed a Beyer top in the process. His efforts at Tampa 2 and 3 back were solid. What if he is just at the top of his form cycle? If so, can he hold it for one more start? Connections find a good spot as if that is the case. FIRST TO THE WIRE goes third off the layoff and second time this dirt. He didn’t get a clean trip last out. Expecting more today especially with Arrieta up. SAVAGE WARRIOR went favored last out and did so for Diodoro but just didn’t fire. Now Arrieta rides elsewhere. This barn often zigs when we think they are going to zag. Let’s test that theory today.

EIGHTH RACE

SAUCY AT MIDNIGHT is the value. Outside post can’t be helped while helping said price. The Litfin barn is just hot, hot, hot. This mare is bred to like the grass even if she has only tried it once. That was a sharp win at Sam Houston only three back. Oaklawn foes two back were just too tough. What was wrong with her most recent? SEYNATAWNEE ran OK last out and it was her first turf start in a while. Now this mare goes right back to the grass. State-bred will be another good price. FRANCES ANNA is the safe pick. She just won on this sod and goes for a very good barn in Shawn Davis. This filly has speed and should find the front end as main pace foes are drawn outside.