ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, PHILOSOPHICALLY FIRST RACE

JERI BELLA drops in class and perhaps more than you think. Even for state-breds, those Oaklawn races were very tough. This mare beat open claimers three back and then beat over half the field home facing money allowance foes two back. She didn’t break well in either of those starts. Now she comes here for Broberg and with a 2nd best of 35 work on the 30th. We know that this mare can win off a layoff. ALL ABOUT CLARA has always likes this dirt. Her last race was a nice even effort going 6 1/2 furlongs but we thought it would have better. Connections add a half furlong and maybe that helps. SKIP’S SONG is the other Broberg runner. The morning line thinks this mare has the better chance. Last race Beyer is better than all but we don’t love the cut back nor the fact that this mare has never run on this dirt.

SECOND RACE

RED CLAY MAGIC draws best and goes second time for Asmussen. This gelding won gate to wire going today’s distance at Churchill only 8 back. He draws the attack post and catches a race with only average pace. JACK BE QUICK escaped money allowance foes at Oaklawn and found local restricted claimers more to his liking. He has won three times at today’s tricky distance. That Beyer two back was OK and the three races before that this guy caught non fast tracks. DOC CURLIN went favored last out but only ran OK. Second time this dirt might help but more so the extra half furlong as distance tab is 3-2-1-0.

THIRD RACE

PHILOSOPHICALLY ran great in her debut even though she was trying two turns on the turf. She did so versus a good group at Canterbury. That race came back key when 4 of 8 returned to hit the exacta (win figs 64 and 54). This filly should be better as a 4YO. The House barn is 16% off a long layoff and show a flat bet profit. LADY LAURA is by a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam went 4-0-0-1 on the green and earned 10K. Lone turf sib is 12-1-0-2 and earned 52K. Asmussen won with a first turf runner last week at 9-1. Oh, last race came back key when

2 of 8 returned to win with figs of 57 and 36. WIDOW

OF NAIN ran evenly in her debut and is all set to improve second time everything. Her turf breeding is quite good. TEXAS PROMO GIRL exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 71 and 60.

FOURTH RACE

DONNA’S COURT broke dead last in his return try and then made a middle move to find the front end but then tired some to finish second. This gelding was improving earlier this year and has now reeled off figs in the 50’s in three straight. Sure, you could say he has a penchant for less but we think we are dealing with a different animal now. SLAM’S MAN just likes it here. A nice score last out at almost 30-1. Connections find a logical spot today and this gelding did break his maiden from the rail. MALASONG ran huge at Lone Star and got a Beyer top in the process. So why come here? He is working at Lone Star. The racing is easier here and this gelding has won on this dirt. New barn is only 6% off the claim. Other speed is a worry.

FIFTH RACE

NOT FADE AWAY ran OK in his most recent but that isn’t what we like best. He goes second time this dirt but that isn’t what we like best. He adds 1 1/2 furlongs but that isn’t what we like best. He has sneaky speed...that’s it. There isn’t any pace in here. If Flores sends we think this guy never looks back. RICH ICON draws the attack post. Those tries 2, 3, and 4 back were OK Beyer-wise. This gelding shouldn’t be that far back of whomever guns. CHARMING BULLET is a grinder so maybe seven panels will work better. Form cycle hints at better. FREIGHTRAINFREEMAN exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 58 and 53.

SIXTH RACE

POSSE GONE WILD tried the grass and two turns for the first time last out and ran great when finishing third at 5-1. Second time everything can only help. Del-Cid leaves for the 5 so Kevin Smith gets to be the hero. Working out a good trip from the 2 hole in a six horse field shouldn’t be too tough. SHE’S A FINE DIME has improved her Beyer speed figure in five straight. Three of those came on the green. Her turf breeding is actually OK so maybe she isn’t done improving. Her return try was a very good second at almost 10-1 but then this barn is 0 for 14 second off this type of layoff. That sample size is small so don’t let it bum you out if you like this filly. BIG RED ROSE ran OK off the layoff and now puts races back to back without a layoff. She did make a nice middle move in her most recent. WEAVEMEAWINR is by a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam went 4-0-0-1 on the green and earned 3K. Two sibs failed to win on the green but one did hit the board. BAYLOR exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 63 and 72. SINGMEBACKHOME exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 72 and 63.

SEVENTH RACE

ALL IN BRONSON has hit the board in her only two local, dirt, starts. She didn’t get much pace to chase last out and now goes third off the layoff. The 4, 5, and 6 all have some speed so today’s pace has to be better. INTERATIFWITHLEU looks quickest to us. Going from one turn to two helps with front end chances. Current form is poor but we actually like that as other speed more apt to let this filly go in the early running. GEORGIA DAWN drops in class and maybe that alone is enough. She did beat over half the field home in her most recent.