ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, GREYES CREEK

FIRST RACE

If you looked up trainer Brian Williamson’s win record over the last five years at Keeneland, you might be disinclined to favor BEAVER HAT. But Williamson’s operation has changed with the demise of Arlington and the Chicago circuit, and has more recently focused on Kentucky and Arkansas. Last fall, the most recent KEE meet, he only won one race, but his 12 starters went a 1-3-1, a good record, especially considering all the top 3s were between 3.8-1 and 16.2-1. To me, Beaver Hat is a clear contender based on the entirety of his two-turn dirt firm, and he even got in a timed work following the June 20 race. Positional pace an asset. You know in KEE maiden-claimers you’ll find pricey auction buys that aren’t panning out. Tend to downgrade the expected performance range of such horses, like CERNAN, since their upside seems inherently low given the way they’re being valued by current connections. Cernan did show some mild progress last time and might appreciate getting back to two turns. Speaking of two turns, while horses that show spark rallying from far off the pace in a sprint debut often are bad bets making their second start in a route race, AMERICAN HUMOR does have a stamina-leaning pedigree & gets a positive class boost.

SECOND RACE

Wow - this $10K starter / $20K claimer, f & m sprint went over like a lead balloon: six horses including two that don’t seem worth nearly the $20K for which they’re entered. TAKE CHARGE ERICA faced tougher than this last time when she didn’t make the lead, which she seems to enjoy, but here she could easily wind up lone speed. If the morning-line is right and she’s three times the price of HEAVENS WHISPER, well, then that’s value. Heavens Whisper has been racing with no real break since December 2018, appeared to come to a peak in the spring, and seems more likely to run worse than she did winning last out than any better. SUNSET PAULA JO won at KEE last fall, albeit going 7f rather than this 6f and for different connections.

THIRD RACE

Hold on - the first 2yo race of the year at Keeneland and Wesley Ward has no entrant? What they say is true - 2020 is a year like no other! Not going to claim to have a good feel for this 6f dash, because I don’t. What’s weird is how many Asmussentrained first-time-starting 2yos go off at odds that feel fair - perhaps that’s because his young horses that are fast often don’t work fast. Notice with PRETTY IN PINK that she went straight to KEE to begin the public work pattern, and she might end up another of those first-timers from this barn that pays a fair price. SPUN D’ETAT also has been working at KEE, and while on bare pedigree she looks much more a two-turn prospect, Amoss is very good with 2yos and first-timers. PATTY H lost a lot of ground in a decent if unspectacular career debut. Can win but suspect she’s overbet.

FOURTH RACE

If you watch turf racing over a good amount of time at Laurel Park, you notice how difficult it can be to make up late ground, and, true to form, in the fourth race on May 30, running positions barely changed at all through the final furlong. I HEAR YOU was fifth at the stretch call and fifth at the finish, but after breaking from post 12, she spent much of her career debut in considerable traffic. Thought she came home with good energy, as must have connections, who send her to KEE for the second start. She’s the first foal from a dam who won the G3 Valley View, a turf route, on the KEE course. Trainer Stidham over the last five years at KEE has a $4.05 ROI in turf routes. FORTY ZIP was drawn wide to begin with, then hit the gate at the start, with predictable consequences - a loss - trying to rally from 12th. Should be ready to show more. FATE FACTOR ran well on this course last fall and comes off a good race. FLYING THE COLORS could be more like even-money than the 9-5 morning-line price, and that short number will

be based only one one out of her four starts, albeit the only one of them in blinkers.

FIFTH RACE

Taken a good long time for 4yo SEARING CHASE to make the races, but now he’s got a long string of encouraging drills and has attracted one of the very top riders for his career debut. Pricey auction buy traces to some very famous bloodlines on dam’s side. Capable trainer not as well known as many, which should help the price. If SAVVY shows anything like the improvement he made in the second start of his last form cycle in this, the second start of his current form cycle, he will be tough. KEE has been his home base for quite some time now, as well. Fair to say LUCKY ASSET had an eventful trip while getting acquainted with the inner rail in his most recent race, still coming home at least a mildly encouraging fourth behind Savvy. These connections come up with a surprising number of runners, and this one’s Turfway debut came against a W Ward-trained horse that ran a strong race.

SIXTH RACE

GREYES CREEK was the 2-1 favorite debuting in a Saratoga dirt sprint as a 2yo, so you know he was well regarded from the start. Tricky rail trip first out, then twice was rained off intended grass starts, followed by a year-plus layoff and a tough-trip turf route in his comeback start. Out it all together and the last-start maiden win at CD which included a very fast finish - looks more like a point of departure than a one-race outlier on his top end. ANDESITE didn’t get much of a run in the BC Juv Turf and just missed winning the Pilgrim - which means what? Structor, who won both those races, has yet to start this year, but there’s evidence that the 2019 2yo turf division fell on the lower end of the scale vis a vis top-level competition. Cox barn obviously more than capable with long-layoff comebackers, but suspect this one gets overbet. MY AMERICA showed some signs of getting it at age 3, but his campaign was cut short in August. Work pattern for good trainer is very encouraging and suspect he can outrun his odds.

SEVENTH RACE

ADMIRE leaves the claiming ranks and enters starter-allowance competition after finally getting close to his better 2019 form in his most recent form. Speed he showed there can put him on the lead in this two-turn mile that confers an advantage to inside draws like his. FRA MAURO took a small step back in most recent start, June 5, but HOF owner-trainer holds steady in starter-allowance competition and the short-stretch, two-turn mile could be right up his alley. FATHER G had what looks like a very useful comeback run June 18, and the trainer has excellent numbers with horses making their second start after a layoff.

EIGHTH RACE

CAMBRIA clearly is better than her BC Juvenile Turf Sprint; Chimney Rock finished second in that race, and Cambria beat him at Kentucky Downs. Blinkers off for career restart, which suggests W Ward believes she’s matured and is more focused now. Work pattern is a plus. Could get nice setup at a square price. DIGITAL will win this race if it’s rained off turf and despite the outside draw probably has a very good chance on grass, too, which he’s never tried. The cutback from routes last out worked well, but once again, he seemed to settle for second after it looked like he was a winner - which has been a habit of this colt. MAVEN is Ward’s other entrant and he could absolutely be the right one. Has quite a bit of speed. Cambria gets five pounds from him and the other males in the race.

NINTH RACE

Homebred NAUGHTY PRINCE already has been gelded and is late to make his career debut. Doubt his long-term future is especially bright, but W Ward has boxcar numbers with first-timers in maiden-claimers, and with a lesser-known rider named, this feels like a horse that the owner might want to bet first time out. SECOND LINE DAVID out of several routes and into a long one-turn race that might really suit him. Only marginally below the claim price paid with an encouraging brace of CDT drills since the most recent start. CAROLINA AIRNESS very flat last time in second career start following much better debut showing. Blinkers off with an MSW to $20K maiden-claiming drop has the feel of something much more competitive coming.