ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, MRS. DANVERS

FIRST RACE

ALDA was outrun early in her career debut but there was a pace duel in front of her and she made a nice late run into it to just miss getting 2nd, before galloping out well in front of that field; bred to do better with this added distance and her experience gives her an edge on the interesting firster STEAL MY SUNSHINE. STEAL MY SUNSHINE is by a top debut sire and the first four foals from this dam are all runners, including Grade 2 turf sprint winner Conquest Panthera and multiple Grade 3 winning dirt sprinter Happy Like a Fool, who also finished 2nd in the Group 2 Queen Mary as Ascot; Ward 23% with 2yo first time starters in turf sprints in NY over the past five years ($2.61 ROI), 7 for 25 at Belmont in that sample (28%, $3.30 ROI). FUNWHILEITLASTED was no factor in her debut at Tampa last month but she appeared to need that race while racing greenly and getting outrun after an alert start, and she was finding her stride at the end of that race.

SECOND RACE

STONEY BENNETT returned from a long layoff at Laurel with his speed intact and stayed gamely over a wet track, before succumbing to a railriding winner late; looks like the best speed in this field and figures tough with the return effort under his belt. VINCERO’s recent from doesn’t make him competitive but he has caught three straight wet tracks and his fast dirt form directly preceding those races will give him a chance in here; will be a fair price as he goes off the claim for a lower-profile trainer. ZONIC and JAVELIN have both struggled to win races along the way and their running styles always leave then vulnerable to pace and trip; look for them late if the pace gets contested.

THIRD RACE

EBONY went 0-7 last year in France after winning her lone start as a 2yo, but she was stakes-placed twice going long after earning her way into a start in the French Oaks; doesn’t appear to have landed in the strongest field here for the level and Motion has a way of winning with theses horses - foreign shipper, first time lasix, turf, route: 14 for his last 50, 28%, $2.98 ROI; 3 for 6 at Belmont in that sample, $6.33 ROI. HUNGRY KITTEN is very wellbred and she has shown flashes of talent along the way while lacing early speed; needs the right trip and not sure that the added distance helps her, but she can factor here with the right trip. WHATDOESASHARKSAY ran what was arguably the best race of her career when breaking her maiden over course and distance last year; liked the ride she got last time when going right to the lead but she was no match for a better field that day.

FOURTH RACE

ALLURE FORTUNE ran well while contesting the pace over a tough distance in her lone start as a 2yo, but didn’t fire off the layoff last time in a race that was won by her stablemate; gets significant class relief for her second start back and will be hard to beat with anything approaching that first run. BELLEZA has her second career start rained off the turf last November and was no match for The Great Johanna, who would go on to win three more times from her next five starts; has the layoff to overcome as she drops in class but doesn’t have anyone as talented as that rival to deal with. CENTRAL EXIT ran pretty well in her first two starts at this level then was no match in her final start before the break; returns off the claim for an excellent trainer and is still eligible to improve.

FIFTH RACE

ANOTHER had no chance off the claim last November when caught outside and away from the stronger inside paths on the Aqueduct turf and facing a much better field, and he has encountered major traffic issues in each of his two starts since, nice fit at this level if he can finally get a trip. TRICKY MAGICIAN never panned out after a somewhat promising start to his career but he has run some competitive races ar around this level recently; concerned that he hasn’t run his best races in NY but he has some speed and could work out the right trip in this race. WAR FILM went right into graded stakes after winning the first two starts of

his career and just wasn’t quite goo enough while doing his best vs. that tougher competition; third off the layoff form top connections and still has more upside than most in here.

SIXTH RACE

HARLEM HEIGHTS showed speed in her two races as a 2yo and was last seen getting caught up on a contested pace in a race that went to closers and has since produced three stakes winners; bred to go on and can factor here if ready off the layoff. BACK CHANNEL contested the pace in her debut after breaking a bit slowly and she prevailed for 2nd despite being no match for heavily-favored Primacy in the stretch; always expect better for the second-time starters out of this barn. ORSAY didn’t run on turf last time but her career debut on dirt was pretty good and this is the surface she is bred for; can have another chance and she won’t be that short of a price this time.

SEVENTH RACE

NO WORD looked good winning his debut at Saratoga as a 2yo and he had a bit of a trip when only able to get 5th in the Pilgrim in his next start; has improved as a 3yo and showed that he can handle distance when stretched out last time despite having to follow horses in the stretch after failing to come clear. ON BASE was never a threat to BUY ME CANDY when making his career debut at Tampa but he raced very greenly in that spot and was finishing with some interest at the end; was still green last time but won that race easily and he finished that race off well over this trip. BUY ME CANDY didn’t run his best race two back but he looked pretty good in his first two starts and rebounded last time while contesting the pace all the way and only getting run over late; still not sure this is his best distance but he has speed, which can be an advantage in this spot.

EIGHTH RACE

MRS. DANVERS looked like a potential stakes horse as a 2yp and she returned from the layoff last time with a useful run into 2nd behind the speedy and talented Indian Pride, who had the run of the race in that short field; hard to go against in this spot while getting the distance it appears she has been waiting for. GRAND CRU CLASSE brought $335k as a 2yo in training but didn’t debut until May, where she handled a wet track while showing easy speed and won easily with a 77 Beyer; bred to stretch out and has forward to go. THE GREAT JOHANNA a NY-bred who upped her game after returning from a long layoff last year to win four of her seven dirt starts; not getting any class relief here after failing to factor in the Critical Eye off the bench.

NINTH RACE

FLEET STEPPER finished behind two of these same rivals while making her debut last time but through she was racing on as well as anyone in the late stages of that race; one of many eligible to take a step forward in this spot. COME STORMING getting class relief for this and she is fastest on the way in with tactical speed; didn’t really have an excuse last time but that was a better field and she should be in position right from the start as she takes the drop. WICKED HAPPY one of the six back in here from that June 14th race, where she raced wider than most and was staying on late without threat; can easily find the necessary improvement here with a better trip.