Course conditions give Toinette edge

Day 4 of the five-day Keeneland July meet is excellent. Even the short-field Ashland holds intrigue, with at least two very good fillies, Venetian Harbor and Speech, battling, and Envoutante out to give trainer Kenny McPeek a sweep of the card’s big 3-year-old races, the Ashland and Blue Grass. McPeek and owner Peter Callahan boldly try the filly Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass, angling for a Kentucky Derby option in a Grade 2 race against males rather than a first Grade 1 win in a short field of fillies. One might argue Venetian Harbor has shown more than anyone in the Blue Grass, where I mildly favor Shivaree to lead all the way at 8-1 or better. At Belmont, Monomoy Girl tries for her ninth straight win – she was disqualified from one of them – while making her second start after an 18-month layoff in the Ruffian.

Jenny Wiley

It was wet Thursday at Keeneland with continued rain possible through the Saturday card – and that can help Toinette beat Rushing Fall for the second time.

Toinette caught a wet course in her only previous trip to Keeneland, in April 2018, when she handled Jenny Wiley entrant La Signare (who will NOT be as high as 30-1 in this race) over a course rated good and likely wetter than that. When Toinette beat Rushing Fall in the 2018 Edgewood, rain had fallen and the course again was wetter than the listed condition. Toinette is absolutely fine on firm ground, yet I feel much better about her on a course with give to it than I do about several others in the Jenny Wiley.

Toinette is not a Grade 1 winner in great part because she’s gotten only two chances. She was too far back in the Matriarch last fall, and might have been past her best so late in the year, and she didn’t stay 1 1/4 miles in the 2018 Belmont Oaks. Her form otherwise is rock solid, her prep race for this start was ideal, and posted video of her recent works suggest a mare in blooming health. From this draw, I think Flavien Prat can position her just behind likely pacesetters Rushing Fall and Jolie Olimpica and just outside Juliet Foxtrot. Rushing Fall, in particular, is a formidable rival, but at the price, and with the chance of a wet course, I’m married to Toinette to cut her down.

Shakertown

In a way, it’s a terrible idea to include the Shakertown Stakes among these plays:

There are too many plausible winners and too complicated a dynamic in a 14-horse field roaring 5 1/2 furlongs around a turn. I am and have long been a Bound for Nowhere fan, and he figures to be favored racing on his home track in a race he easily won in 2018, but Totally Boss entices at the likely price. The line has Totally Boss at a reasonable 8-1, and I would play him to win at those odds.

The odds get inflated because Totally Boss’s last two starts look poor at first glance on paper. He actually had no chance in either start. He was buried on the rail in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and wiped out before the three-eighths pole last time at Churchill when Real News lost his action and zagged several paths off his line, causing Totally Boss to be sharply checked. Totally Boss needs all the potential pace entered – and there is plenty – to show up, needs a clear trip to get home at this 5 1/2-furlong trip since he truly prefers six furlongs, but he is good enough to make this happen and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. has been on fire at this short meet.

Delaware Handicap

Dunbar Road is going to be odds-on to win the Del Cap, and while she’s clearly the most likely winner, I think the price will be too short and will try to beat her with Saracosa. Yes, Dunbar Road excelled over a wet track last summer at Saratoga, but as we all know, wet tracks are not all created equal, and there’s a good chance of rain on a steamy day at Delaware.

Saracosa was a 31-1 shot winning a minor stakes race over the winter at Fair Grounds, but rather than being a fluke, that race served as a point of departure for even stronger performances. Serengeti Empress got away from everyone in the Azeri Stakes, where Saracosa was third, and this mare performed creditably in a tough, deep Apple Blossom. She was beaten only by the promising Chad Brown-trained Royal Flag last out. She has the right grinding style to improve at nine furlongs and should relish a wet track.