ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, GOOD CREDENCE

FIRST RACE

SHAKER SHACK is by top debut sire Bustin Stones (22% with juvenile first-time starters) and the first three foals from this dam are all winners, including stakes winners Oak Bluffs (20 career wins, $704k in earnings) and full-sister Bustin Out; has an aggressive rider named. BUSTIN SHUFFLE is also by Bustin Stones and she is a full-sister to a pair of multiple winners, who were also both debut winners; new trainer has made a favorable early impression since taking over for Contessa, who had a history of popping at a price occasionally with first-time starters. SHESADIRTYDANCER owns valuable experience and may be set to improve for the run after being conservatively ridden first time out and finishing a no-threat 4th; blinkers on.

SECOND RACE

RADIANTRITHYM is an 11-time winner but she is looking for her first victory in over a year and her first win in NY, though she has hit the board in four of her six starts on this circuit; was off the layoff when unable to get to Keep Your Distance on the lead last time after sitting a good trip and she had real trouble at the start two back. SOLITARY GEM back to NY with a trainer change to Linda Rice and she figures tough in here if holding her recent form; won three in a row with competitive figures to kick off 2020 and is entered at the right level here on the cut back. DIRTY BIRD dropped to win two back sprinting then got in too tough in her next start when forced to fan very wide to the stretch from off the pace; good fit here and will likely be a fair price.

THIRD RACE

MORE THAN STRIKING ran fast enough to win this race in his first two starts then stepped up in class to no avail in Florida; dropped back down in class for this trainer last time and contested the pace going a mile, before proving to be no match for heavily-favored Bebe Banker in a fast race. The lone win for WAYNES FOOTSTEPS came on turf but he has run well in both sprints since switching to dirt over the winter, one on fast dort and one in the slop; had no real excuse last time while matching on the pace all the way with the eventual winner but he earned a competitive figure and his new trainer has solid numbers off the claim. PASSCODE made two starts on the drop last summer at Saratoga and ran well enough to contend here both times without winning either one; long layoff.

FOURTH RACE

Thinks it’s fair to give MONOMOY GIRL the benefit of the doubt for that return effort, where she won easily but didn’t run a particularly fast race over a wet track; viewed simply as a means to an end it was pretty good and she is simply supposed to win this race if she is going to make it back near the top of this division. MOTHER MOTHER’s last two starts may be a sign that she is heading the wrong way but she has legit trouble at the start both times; think the one-turn mile works for her and she is better than her overall record would indicate. VEXATIOUS is versatile and capable of a race that would give her a look here if she can get the right trip, which she did not get when returned from the layoff at Oaklawn two starts back; wins infrequently but shows up every time.

FIFTH RACE

HONEY WON’T is versatile enough the be effective sprinting and routing - not as easy on turf as it is on dirt - and her form has been trending up for Mott since that tough trip effort sprinting at Aqueduct last November; was facing a rival in Kitten’s Cat last time who is as good as anyone he faces here and ran a winning race that day while coming up short. QUARKY broke his maiden at Tampa and

has run well at Monmouth and Gulfstream, as well, but his best races have come over Belmont turf, where he is 1 for 5 with 4 2nds and has earned all of his best figures; had no real excuse last time when denied by longshot Mad Munnys but he was off a short layoff there and was being carried out by that rival all through the stretch. Last time was probably the time to have YES AND YES as he followed up a solid return effort at a big price with an easy, front-running score over weaker going this trip, but he ran well there while earning a new top figure an will be forward once again.

There is strength on the AE list here so wait for scratches before making final decisions. BROVIA is first-up on the list and, if she gets in, will be looking for a better trip that she had in her turf debut last time when trapped on the rail all through the stretch and never coming clear. QUEEN KIMBERLY has not run well in her first two starts, both sprinting on dirt, but she was dueling on a fast pace for the level when last seen, before giving way in the stretch; should be forward from the start with Carmouche up and she is bred for this being by Freud and a sister to three-time turf winner Zorzor. STUY TOWN BABY made no impact after having to steady a bit early last time, but she was off the layoff there and may have needed the race; ran much better in her prior turf start at this level and can rebound at a square price.

SEVENTH RACE

GOOD CREDENCE was impressive breaking her maiden in the slop as a 2yo, before stepping up in the Maid of the Mist and contesting the pace to no avail; appeared to need that last one where she broke through the gate prior to the start and then flattened out late after looming at the top of the stretch; can do better second off the layoff with blinkers on. SINGLE VERSE won once and finished 2nd four times from her first five starts as a 2yo, with two of those runnerup efforts coming in stakes races; goes turf to dirt second off the layoff and won’t have to improve much on that 72 Beyer she earned for the maiden win last year. BUSTIN SCONES finished gamely and got up for 2nd ahead of the top one last time, where she was also returning from a layoff; owns the top Beyer in this field, earned in that good effort for 2nd to Cash Offer off the bench last September, but her other races don’t match up to that run.

EIGHTH RACE

HAN SENSE is dropping for this but he was claimed out of a win for $50k late last year and he has been in good form since then while placing in a pair of stakes and then regressing in his last two vs. better; tough in here if he can get back in form following a little break. HEAVY ROLLER and SUPER DUDE exit the same race at Churchill, where they finished 2nd and 3rd in a race that was won last to first; the latter was closer to that pace and has won in NY in the past, though he might be a bit better around two turns. HEAVY ROLLER versatile in terms of distance and trip and he continues in good form for Atras.

NINTH RACE

UNCLE GEORGE took some money in his debut here early in the meet before settling in as the third choice at post, and he did some good things there while settling off the pace early and then coming with a determined finish to get up; well-bred colt takes the next logical step for Clement, who is 27 for his last 136 with last-out maiden winners on turf, 20%, $2.74 ROI, nd 10 for 31 with debut winners in that sample (32%, $3.39 ROI). FLY FLY AWAY a stablemate of the top one and also well-bred, being a half-brother to the top turf sprinter Disco Partner; win his turf debut in game fashion at Saratoga as a 2yo and has made his two starts since vs. stakes company; lasix on for his 3yo debut. TURBO DRIVE earned a solid figure for his maiden win late last year but his other turf races fail to match up to that race; second off the layoff for a dangerous trainer but he must improve.

TENTH RACE

AFTER PROM PARTY a 5yo with only three starts behind him and he was listed as a vet scratch earlier in the meet, but he was green first time out and Finger Lakes while being allowed to finish on his own power, then returned from the layoff at Saratoga and improved despite breaking poorly; starts back at the right level as a new gelding for Englehart, who is 6 for his last 16 (38%) with maidens returning from layoffs of 180 days or longer in dirt sprints ($2.70 ROI) - 3 for 9 with maiden claimers in that sample. LORD CAMDEN made one dirt start last year vs, much better and showed some early speed in that spot that does not turn up in the running line; turf to dirt second off the layoff and getting significant class relief for this. WARDENOFTHENORTH debuted for $30k early in the meet and was never a factor but that wasn’t a terrible effort and he just didn’t appear to be sharp for that race; can do better with that one out of the way as he makes his first start for Rice.