ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, STORMY D

FIRST RACE

NICK THE CARDSHARK drops in class and price for his first start since April and he lands in a sprint where his tactical speed should give him an edge, as this opener is a little light on pace; he and his uncoupled stablemate, HIGH FIVE COTTON, could be the main speeds in here, and their past success over this strip adds to their appeal. The latter comes off a route try against better in his seasonal debut yet he is likely quick enough to remain prominent from the start under jockey Ferrin Peterson, taking the reins from Tomas Mejia, who has presumably chosen to ride NICK THE CARDSHARK today; these two could complete a two-speed exacta for trainer Jose Delgado if in fact able to set a controlled tempo. COBH has been closing well of late, including in his latest when sent a mile; he’s winless at this common distance and he’s likely better going longer but he may be good enough here if able to stay relatively close from the start.

SECOND RACE

MORGANTOWN faded after he was caught up in a duel in his first start off the short rest last time out but he may be able to shake loose in the opening stages today under Paco Lopez; he can rate off the pace if need be but those bullet works since his latest suggest he’ll come out firing here, especially considering the expected race flow. LIKE WHAT I SEE gets back to a sprint but he’s not likely to be too far off the top pick at any point, as he does have the tactical speed to stay close and Joe Bravo, a masterful judge of pace, in the saddle; does like to run 2nd, which tempers the enthusiasm some, but he’s certainly on the short list of contenders. BAZOO has the rail and some speed, and he makes his first start off the claim for a barn winning at 25% with same; may get first run at MORGANTOWN.

THIRD RACE

NEVER ENOUGH TIME turfed in her first start in nearly a year but perhaps that was a prep for this, as she is proven on the main track and the barn does very well 2nd time off the layoff and moving from grass to dirt; she was forced to rate off the pace in that speed-filled sprint last time but she can be expected to try to steal this under jockey Antonio Gallardo. NTH DEGREE will look to run her down late, as she has a decent stretch kick and she has been working well as she prepares for her first start in four months; would appreciate another rival softening up the top pick in the opening stages, as well as a clean trip from the rail. DIVA’S REVENGE could be a pace factor but she has also come from off the pace with success; a winner of three of her last four before she went to the sidelines last year, she’s dangerous if she is ready for her return.

FOURTH RACE

CHRISTOPHER impressed with that late run for the place here last week and he seems very well spotted to make the last run against this group, if he can run back to that effort; that shouldn’t be an issue if he gets some help from the pacesetters and there is some established speed to his inside. MAKE A STAND is the one to beat on the strength of that last effort and Beyer, coming off a nice try for the show at Belmont in his first start off a fourmonth break; obviously tough if he’s able to post a repeat of that Beyer, which was the best of his short career. MATTY’S EXPRESS may have been overmatched when last seen at Tampa but his prior

Beyers are plenty good enough to make him a top threat in this one; figures to make is presence felt late.

FIFTH RACE

HERO FOR HIRE faded in her return from the hiatus but that was no easy spot, as she had to work hard to make the lead in that elongated sprint and the effects of the layoff and the dynamics of the pace caught up with her late; shortens up a sixteenth today and lands in a sprint where she looms the primary pacesetter, and if she can shake loose and slow down the splits some she figures tough to reel in. The possibility of a “bounce” in her 2nd start back following a taxing return try does make her a little vulnerable, however, and ARCELOR would be the main beneficiary should that be the case; the latter races below the level of the claim two back and she’s easy to see as a huge threat here, as she was consistent against better prior to the layoff. PRINCESS MIKAYAH doesn’t have the best of win percentages but she could awaken here on the class drop, coming off sprints against open claimers in New York and now facing non-winners of a race in six months.

SIXTH RACE

There’s plenty of speed in this abbreviated sprint, and that includes RAY’SWARRIOR, but he has also shown that he doesn’t necessarily need to be setting the pace, as he has prompted the pace and made a late run in the past with some effectiveness; looms tough here if able to work out that type of trip, as a quick, contested pace seems likely. SHAFT OF LIGHT makes his first start since November and he’s another who has speed but can rate, and could fall into an ideal stalking trip; big drop off the break is a concern but he needn’t run to his best figures to win this, it seems. SIR ROCKPORT was a game winner when last seen; up in class for this but he is clearly still sharp despite the recent break, and he’s proven at this distance.

SEVENTH RACE

BERNIE’S MISTRESS doesn’t have a pedigree that suggests turf will be her best surface, and the barn doesn’t excel with grass sprinters, but this filly has high speed and this is a race featuring an uncertain race flow, but it’s certainly not overflowing with speed; probably wouldn’t mind seeing this race switched to the main track but she does loom the one to catch regardless of surface. ABUSE OF POWER is out of a dam who won a couple of races and was stakes placed on the grass; kin to stakes winner Street Storm as well as turn winner Grey Wizard but the appeal of course lies in the connections, as trainer Chad Brown is always dangerous, especially in these maiden grass events. UPLIFTED was away slowly in her career debut here last year over this course but she was moving well late; obviously has some upside for a barn which excels with horses coming back from a layoff as well as when teamed with jockey Chris DeCarlo.

EIGHTH RACE

MISS MARISSA was in against better in all of her starts last year and early in 2020, and though she faded in her return from the layoff last time that was on the turf, which she doesn’t seem to prefer at this stage of her career; has the speed to stay close and should be just off the leaders from the start. LASTING UNION was a game winner vs. maidens in her latest, a solid effort which resulted in the best Beyer of her career; she’ll need to run back to that figure to win this but it could well be that she prefers two turns, as that was her first such race to date. CHEROKEE MAIDEN faded in her first start vs. winners at Churchill Downs last time after she sat off the early pace but she can be expected to be put on the lead today by Paco Lopez, given her inside post and the pace makeup of this field; Beyer she posted two back and the connections give her strong credibility.

NINTH RACE

CALL ON MISCHIEF was behind MISS J MCKAY in their last meeting at Belmont but the former never really had a chance to run, stuck down inside for the entire race and then forced to check when things got tight, and she wasn’t asked thereafter; lots of room for this proven turf sprinter to improve in this Blue Sparkler Stakes, as her outside draw should mean clear sailing for her. MISS J MCKAY is the one to beat as she comes off a solid effort for the show in the Lady Shipman, rallying with some interest from the outside after racing off the early pace; she won the Colleen Stakes over this course last year but was disqualified for drifting in and interfering with a rival but that effort, and subsequent solid efforts in stakes races on the grass, clearly make her formidable in this one. WE MISS SUSIE could be the main danger if this race is switched to the main track, a possibility given the prospects of strong storms in the area on Friday night; trainer Jane Cibelli is five-for-15, with nine runners hitting the board, in off-the-turf sprints going back five years.

TENTH RACE

GROOVY SURPRISE gets a tepid nod in a perplexing NJ-bred sprint, as she has the speed to shake loose if pushed hard in the opening stages by jockey Jose Ferrer, who can be expected to do just that; barn not known for winning off the layoff but this filly does seem well spotted in terms of race flow. ROMNEY MARSH was in against better in all of her starts since the maiden score in her debut, including in her latest, when in an open AN1X allowance at Laurel; this switch to the statebred ranks figures to move her up. BRAMBLE BAY posted both of her two career wins on the turf but she didn’t run badly on the main track two back; makes her third start off the layoff and retains Bravo, who won with her last time out at Gulfstream.

ELEVENTH RACE

STORMY D is a stone closer, and thus in need of some pace help, but given that she will be tough to stave off in the lane here, as she has a solid late kick and is in very good form for trainer John Rigattieri; she benefited from a clean inside trip to score at Tampa last time but she was game to get up and the resulting Beyer gives her strong credibility with the locals. CHECKBOUNCIN BILLY is one of the expected speeds and she comes off a game win of her own last time out, albeit on the main track; that effort, and her proven ability on wet tracks makes her the top pick should this race be switched to dirt. UNABRIDGED beat lesser at Tampa last time but she posted a Beyer that puts her in the mix with these; trainer Derek Ryan always a threat on the turf at Monmouth, especially with last-out winners.

TWELFTH RACE

DRIVE IN takes a big class drop in his 2nd start off the claim, and the efforts she turned in prior to that make her a clear threat today despite her lack of route experience; trainer Kent Sweezey, has a very interesting — albeit esoteric — positive stat working in his favor, posting three wins from four starters (lone loser finished 2nd by a half-length) with maiden claimers `stretching out on dirt off this type of “layoff” since 2017 (stats courtesy of DRF Formulator). R AWESUM BETTY has two-turn experience under her belt, which perhaps gives her an edge on most of this field, which lacks same; ran well enough in defeat in each of her last two and can only improve given faster early splits up front, not to mention a clean break, which she didn’t get last time. BIG BOSS LADY stopped on a loose lead in her latest but the sloppy track provides an easy excuse; switches to trainer Jose Delgado, who has solid stats with most types, including with new faces.