ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, SHE CAN’T SING

FIRST RACE

Old school trainer Ian Wilkes doesn’t mind losing a race as a means to an end, and suspect the CD comeback run last out for CIVIL SERVANT was a stepping-stone to this star. Wilkes had a sharp second-after-layoff winner, Savvy, on the Wednesday card, and this gelding, who is bred to handle his first try at two turns, has caught wet tracks his last two, perhaps not to his liking. 12-race maiden COPPER KING has racked up more than $100K in earnings, so it’s hard to knock his lack of win-willingness. He’s been a consistent contender under a variety of conditions and should factor again here. LOOKING AT LIBERTY had a spot of trouble in his most recent race and has evinced ability in both his starts, but I wouldn’t take the published odds as a win price.

SECOND RACE

THERIDEOFALIFETIME gave chase to Jackie’s Warrior, a sharp Asmussen-trained debut winner who got an 81 Beyer Speed Figure, well above par for a 2yo first-timer. This filly is the first foal to race out of Cosmic Evolution, who won the Debutante Stakes as a 2yo, and she should benefit from the added furlong here. But uh-oh - Ignacio Correas, trainer of the top pick, surely has his eyes on a different Asmussen-trained first-timer, DIRECTIONAL, who could easily be very live. Filly came into KEE in late May and surely got plenty of early lessons and foundation at the Asmussen family’s El Primero training center outside Laredo. The dam is a sister to the graded-stakes-winning, Asmussen-trained sprinter, New York Central. SWILL did her early published breezing over the KEE track and has an encouraging work pattern for her career debut. Grand scheme of pedigree suggests she might be prepping for a rich maiden race at Kentucky Downs?

THIRD RACE

SHE CAN’T SING clearly is capable of better than she showed in her most recent performance, as evidenced by the way she ran two starts ago. Barring scratches, she should get a fast pace at which to run here and can swoop to the lead at the furlong pole, though probably at odds lower than the morning line. Something went amiss for SLAM DUNK in her most recent start in late April at Gulfstream, and she’s a solid fit in this spot if you draw a line through that race. CROWN JEWEL just found one better last out when overbet rising from a maiden win to this N1X class. That “one,” Club Car, is solid but unspectacular and there were only six in the race. Probably and underlay today.

FOURTH RACE

EVIL LYN claimed out of her last for just $40,000, but given the short field in the Appalachian, the chance she can go to the front and control the pace, and the new connections’ willingness to give this a shot after three works, an upset is possible. That chance, as much as anything, has to do with the horse who will be trying to run her down. ALMS did have a wide draw last time and was coming back from layoff, but the trainer is very good getting horses ready off works, and I expected to see more from her in the Tepin, where she was favored. That slightly disappointing showing came after she was redirected from what was said to be her original spring target, the Florida Oaks, and I just wonder if she’s hit a flat spot after her excellent 2yo campaign. WALK IN MARRAKESH was indeed blocked through the stretch of the Tepin, but I felt she might have extricated herself from that spot if her rider had more horse under him.

FIFTH RACE

GUARANA is the gorilla in the Madison. She’s gonna be odds-on but is too tough for me to try and beat considering the ceiling she hit last year in the Acorn and the seemingly perfect prep she had at CD for this start. BELL’S THE ONE’s best form had come at Keeneland until she rolled to a sweet upset last out at Churchill in the Winning Colors. Ran so well there it might make one wonder if six

furlongs is really her best fit. Don’t think she’ll bounce; do think she’ll have to improve again to beat the favorite. AMY’S CHALLENGE looks like the clear speed here, and the rider can mess with the horses drawn inside her breaking from this outside post and working his way over to the rail down the backstretch. She’s hard pressed to stay 7f but ran well in this race last year and could hang on for a share.

SIXTH RACE

Could be the race of the day in terms of the sheer number of high-quality entrants and all the moving parts. I see six plausible winners ranked in order of preference: TOTALLY BOSS, BOUND FOR NOWHERE, EXTRAVAGANT KID, Leinster, Wildman Jack, and Texas Wedge. Totally Boss is 8-1 on the morning line, which would be a very appealing price on a horse totally capable of winning this. Had no chance in the BC Turf Sprint from post 1 and was eliminated last out when Real News lost his action and came out into him on the turn. The three races last year between June and September were top shelf showings, his work pattern since the comeback is extremely encouraging, and this outside post should at least lead to a clean run. BOUND FOR NOWHERE was touched off by Imprimis, who was at the peak of his powers, in this race last year, and won his two other sprints on the KEE course, which he loves. Beaten at 1-2 last out in SoCal, and while there were reasons for that loss, it still, to me, raises the possibility he’s a quarter-step slower at age 6. Could go either way for Extravagant Kid drawn down at the fence - either he gets through after saving ground and has a great trip, or he gets buried in traffic. Don’t like the inside draw for Wildman Jack at all, and he probably wasn’t even “best” in his last start.

SEVENTH RACE

For several months, VENETIAN HARBOR was regarded as the best filly in her crop, and she still appears to be very near the top of it. Dealt wicked fractions at Oaklawn last time, run down only by the excellent Swiss Skydiver while 10 lengths (!) clear of Shedaresthedevil, who crushed the Indiana Oaks on Wednesday night and is really good in her own right. She easily could turn out to be more a miler type, and those last two works look almost TOO fast. Interesting, the move from Santa Anita to San Luis Rey for the final preps. Interesting, as well, that they go back to Rosario. She’s going to the front and I don’t think SPEECH can catch her. Guess the Speech camp wanted no part of Swiss Skydiver since they kept Friday’s Beaumont as an option until SS was committed to the Blue Grass. They might not want too much of Venetian Harbor, either, but that’s TBD. Strong suspicion that

Speech, in addition to chasing loose-on-lead Swiss Skydiver, regressed after the strong run at Gamine, who came back to run one of the best races of the year in the Acorn. I see these more as a 7-5, 8-5 matchup than the 6-5, 2-1 the morning line lists.

ENVOUTANTE’s last race was incredible from the half-mile pole to the quarter pole, when she cruised past everyone impressively. Then she failed to change leads and left an observer a little cold in the late stages. Still not impossible she steps up.

EIGHTH RACE

The head to head matchup stands at 1-0, TOINETTE over RUSHING FALL. Yes, we’re talking about the Edgewood in May 2018, but Toinette did beat Rushing Fall on the square and is a very underrated mare. I don’t think the two races in which JULIET FOXTROT beat her last year are entirely definitive - 1 1/8 miles, distance of the Mabee, where JT was 2nd, Toinette 3rd, is a half-furlong too far, and Toinette was much farther back than she prefers in the Matriarch, albeit in part because of a hot pace. Loved Toinette’s comeback run last time as well as the video of her subsequent works, and she could get a really good trip with cover from one horse while two paths from the rail. At the respective prices, she’s the play. Don’t have to go on about Rushing Fall’s overall wonderful quality, love of Keeneland, success at the trip. Her nagging injuries that led to the sub-par KEE showing last fall seem fully behind her and she’s a formidable favorite. JULIET FOXTROT pulled too hard, likely more because of freshness than anything, in her 2020 debut and is capable of a much better performance. She could nestle right into the pocket behind the inside speed and get a lovely trip. Hat tip to JOLIE OLIMPICA, SECRET MESSAGE, and LA SIGNARE, all of whom are capable of an upset if things shake right.

NINTH RACE

SHIVAREE is listed at 8-1 on the line, which seems both a reasonable guess and a fair price to take. This colt has quietly come around very nicely through the year and probably is under-rated right now. He did the dirty work in the Florida Derby, putting away Ete Indien, as he did again in the June 10 allowance race, before succumbing to a talented closer, in the former case the top-rated 3yo in America, Tiz the Law, and more recently to the very talented Sole Volante. The removal of blinkers appears to have made a major difference. Rail draw can be negative in many cases but here it’s ideal - leave running, try to control the pace, see how far he takes them. Devoted SWISS

SKYDIVER fan here, but she’s gone from sweet prices at 9-1 and 16-1 in her spring wins to the favorite facing males over a distance she’s yet to

try. Very impressive in SA Oaks, but was able to dominate that race on the front end, which isn’t happening here. I see her as a serious win player at a deflated price. MR. BIG NEWS did get a fine setup at Oaklawn but was very progressive in that race and his trend line could still be pointing up. We know he stays. ART COLLECTOR was flattered when the runner-up in his last race, Shared Sense, won the IND Derby Wednesday. RUSHIE’s draw + expected odds makes him marginal for me.

TENTH RACE

SUMMER IN SARATOGA did get through along the inside turning for home, which was to her favor, but before that point in the race, she’d trailed a slow pace and when attempting to gain position past the half-mile pole was shuffled back to last. Easily the fastest finisher in that N1X over one mile, and going 1 3/16 miles, a trip she ought to be able to handle, she can stick much closer in what looks like a paceless heat. Should offer fair win odds with ROMANTIC PURSUIT taking plenty of money. RP looks at first glance like she could lead or stick right off the pace, but TimeFormUS pace figures suggest that impression is more a mirage, and indeed, she has been in nothing but slow-paced races. Comes off a career-best performance, where she nearly defeated the high-class, long-distance performer Gentle Ruler on that mare’s favorite course. That said, you can see she’s got a hint of herd instinct to her with the ratio of second-place finishes to wins. If there’s one horse whose connections might get ambitious and try to steal this on the lead, it’s SPEEDY SOLUTION, who should go straight to the front from this outside draw. W Ward at a price.