ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, INTO CHOCOLATE

FIRST RACE

INTO CHOCOLATE has been pretty good from the start and she had really taken to sprinting since being turned back late last year, stumbling at the start at Del Mar before finishing a good 4th and then coming wide and winning easily in her final start in California with a 79 Beyer in her next start; debuted for Mott last time and once again ran well while no match for the prolific Lady’s Island. SADIE LADY looks like the clear speed in this field and that is a big advantage for this filly, who improved noticeably when brought back to dirt by Atras last year; may have needed that last one off the layoff when caving in going 6.5. FAIR REGIS may have lost a step or two but she is consistent and she didn’t run poorly in her first start for Atras last time, despite failing to find enough at crunch time; in the exacta in 19 of her 34 career starts.

SECOND RACE

COTTON is by a sire who wins with 18% of his juvenile debut runners and he is the first foal from this dam, who is a sister to the fast sprinter Dust and Diamonds; appears to be working well up to his debut and gets an aggressive rider. LOOKIN FOR TROUBLE is by the top sire Into Mischief and he is the first foal from three-time winner In Spite of Mama, who is herself a sister to dual-surface stakes performer A Freud of Mama; this is the female family of Haynesfield. BUSTIN BIEBER debuted in an open company MSW race where he bumped into the impressive Roderick and was never a factor; can do better with that race behind him and will appreciate getting in against fellow state-breds.

THIRD RACE

WEAR MY RING broke awkwardly and raced greenly in her January debut then stretched out and gamely prevailed in a slow race second time out; has more upside than her main rival as she takes a big drop for this while going turf to dirt with blinkers on. BARBARA P third off the layoff and stretching back out to a mile for the first time since her underrated effort back in January, where she made a game, four-wide run all through the turn into a pace that was quick for the level, only to flatten out late; will be a price once again. INTOXICOLOGIST looked pretty good winning first time out over a wet track going this distance and she backed that effort up pretty well in her next start; didn’t run well when dropped in class two back but those first two efforts make her tough and she also goes turf to dirt for this.

FOURTH RACE

MICHAEL’S BAD BOY improved when stretched out for his second career start late last year and he also had some trouble in that race vs. a good field; came away an unlucky loser last time after being rated behind a slow pace and then having to rally inside in the stretch, before falling just short of the front-running winner. KLICKITAT the horse to beat here as he drops in to face maiden claimers for the first time while racing as a new gelding; don’t want to make too many excuses for a horse who settled for 2nd in four of his five starts last year but he is supposed to be tough if ready off the layoff. PETRUS debuted in the MICHAEL’S BAD BOY race last month and was similarly compromised by the pace of that race after taking some money; can easily improve enough to win this but will have to overcome the far outside post.

FIFTH RACE

Hard to believe that LE GENERAL hasn’t won a race since the last two starts of his juvenile campaign, but things haven’t gone according to plan for him and he has shown that he can still run at times along the way; interested to see if Linda can get him back in form off the claim while bringing him back to the grass, where he ran well three times following a layoff late last year. ON THE WAY TO NEVRLAND’s lone turf win came around two turns early in his career but he followed that easy victory with a strong 2nd to Stubbins down the hill and a solid 5th on the Grade 3 Transylvania at Keeneland; didn’t run well at Aqueduct prior to the layoff but he held his own vs. a strong field

at Keeneland prior to that. BOURBON MISSION is a little light on figures overall but he has returned from the layoff with a pair of solid efforts over course and distance and paired up 77 Beyers; needs a little pace to develop.

SIXTH RACE

MOANA’S TALE buried maidens in her turf debut as a 2yo and when right into a Grade 3 in her next start, where she was no match for front-running Cheermeister, a three-time stakes winner who came right back to win another Grade 3 in her next start; holds all the upside as she returns from the layoff in her available condition. DANCING WTH DAFFODLS has settled for 2nd or 3rd 16 times from her first 31 starts, including that race two back off the layoff when just getting nailed on the wire in this condition; ran well over this course and distance twice last year. SILKY BLUE had her debut rained off and finished a distant 2nd in the slop before going right back to the bench; improved significantly when brought back over this distance on turf and gamely prevailed to break her maiden.

SEVENTH RACE

PRINCE OF NEW YORK dug in gamely to prevail when brought back from the layoff on dirt in January and he has also run well in his two starts since, most notably in that race two back when dueling with VIOLENT DELIGHTS and prevailing for 2nd. VIOLENT DELIGHTS took the race to the top one right away two back as the favorite and settled for 3rd, and he finished ahead of that rival off the layoff last time while settling for second-best for the 5th time from 13 career dirt starts; logical but isn’t exactly a winning-type. THE NORTH REMEMBERS broke his maiden on turf two back but he ran fine in his career debut on dirt, despite stumbling at the start, and his only other dirt race directly preceded a layoff; second off the layoff dropping in class.

EIGHTH RACE

WE GETS DAMUNNYS is a poor gate horse but she has managed to deal with that more proficiently as time has gone by, as evidenced by her return from the layoff where she overcame a rated pace to prevail in a blanket finish; went long twice late last year and ran well both times vs. better, particularly in that Long Island where she made an early, wide run in a race where the last moves were the best moves. TASS improved throughout her 3yo campaign and her best race of the year came when stretched out to 11 furlongs at Aqueduct; dangerous speed second off the layoff after getting in a useful prep at Laurel. LEMON ZIP a distance specialist who won four times between 11 and 12 furlongs last year, while also placing in three stakes over this trip; lands in a good spot off the layoff after failing to impact in a Grade 3 when last seen.

NINTH RACE

PIPPI couldn’t a turf race to go early on but finally got to the grass in her 3yo debut and she ran well there despite having to steady back at the start and then clipping heels into an early stumble on the backstretch; made a game run into that race down past midstretch before flattening out in a deceptively good performance. PAINITE cutting all the way back for this, which will be difficult to overcome, but understand why connections want to get another race into her as she had a tough trip and got very unlucky not to win two back, then endured a difficult wide trip going long last time. DEVILS RENDEZVOUS was off a long layoff when finishing ahead of PIPPI last time after an outside trip; looks like a good fit here as she makes her second start back.