ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, EAST CODE

FIRST RACE

VIOLENT FIGHT exits a race that has produced three next-out winners including Legendary Prince, a colt that returned to earn a 79 Beyer when beating starter-optional claiming foes. Trainerjockey combination scored off the claim with Lady Archa on April 24. Half-sibling to stakes-winning turf router Lilly Fa Pootz and stakes-placed turf router Super Dude should handle the additional distance. FAYEZ is hard to trust on the win end as he’s already had twenty chances without success, but he does have speed and the rail, and should be in the thick of things when they turn for home. MOUNTAIN BREEZE is definitely worth consideration in multiple-race wagers as he finished ahead of five of these on June 24 and hasn’t run a bad one on turf.

SECOND RACE

EAST CODE was six lengths clear of third when dropping back to five furlongs in most recent start. Think he can be forwardly-placed returning to three-quarters of a mile and might be figuring this game out. OROSCOPO is probably best utilized on the bottom of single-race exotics as he brings an 0 for 18 record to the party. It is worth noting that he has several Beyer Speed Figures that would make him competitive with these and he finished ahead of the top pick on June 21. TEN MILES HIGH drops in class with good tactical speed after finishing behind next-out 59-Beyer earner Semper Fi for a $20,000 tag. Shouldn’t be too far away when the real racing starts.

THIRD RACE

KYLE dueled Apache Brave into defeat, took over turning into the stretch and just succumbed in the waning strides on June 19. That was the second consecutive good effort for Kyle, who has apparently found his niche sprinting on the turf. Expect him to get forward once again. HONOLULU EXPRESS will need some pace help up front, but he exits a solid conditioned claimer that produced next-out 80-Beyer performer Good Bye Greg, a 13-time winner with lots of black class. Should be rolling late. NETTLETON’s lone victory came sprinting on the turf and he was then thrown to the wolves in a pair of stakes races. Wonder if he can avoid being outrun early, but can improve in second start of the form cycle.

FOURTH RACE

Not concerned with LONG GRAY LINE’s local debut as he was likely in over his head against entry-level optional claimers on turf. Back to his preferred surface for this spot, his race two back would be good enough to contend for win honors. That heat produced two next-out winners including 86-Beyer winner Bumperdoo. There isn’t much pace in this race so it is imperative for the rider to get this gray gelding a bit closer early. Want to use FORTUNE COOKIE in multiple-race plays as he stretches out after finishing ahead of next-out 81-Beyer performer Gump. He is a proven commodity at this trip and has the tactical speed to sit close to the expected moderate splits. TRAPPEZOID has been knocking on the door in recent starts. Consistent gelding has hit the board in his last six starts. BRASSTOWN steps up sharp following the Sano claim and could be tough to catch if able to set a rated pace.

FIFTH RACE

ELITE APPEAL was washed off the turf last time, but that race could serve as a good tightener for a first start of the form cycle and she might be sharper with that race under her belt. Ran well on the weeds two back when chasing a slow pace

set by gate-to-wire winner Too Much War. Three horses exited that March 26 heat to win including 75-Beyer performer Jost Sayin. Can work out a nice pace-tracking, ground-saving trip. WILD

ABOUT THIS has much to prove stepping up out of the maiden ranks and stretching out three furlongs, but she has speed and the inside post. There isn’t a ton of pace in this race and there’s a chance she can shake clear. Ran decently going two turns back on January 31. STRICT VOW didn’t have the easiest trip when shipping back from Tampa Bay Downs. One-run closer could be compromised by the lack of pace up front.

SIXTH RACE

Perhaps this is somewhat of a suspicious drop in claiming price for last-out winner SUPERHIGHWAY, but he fits very well with ‘non-winners of two’ competition after graduating in comfortable style. He took advantage of a quick pace last time and might receive a similar setup here. RED FOG isn’t the easiest to trust as a dirt ‘maiden’ with a 1 for 26 lifetime record, but he improved after being claimed by this barn. Versatile running style should serve him well here as he can get the jump on the top pick. Think SLIPPY is racing himself back into shape following the long layoff and he drops a notch in second start off the claim. Lone win came on synthetic and he might have company up front.

SEVENTH RACE

EXONERATED PREZ is a full brother to Grade 2-winning dirt sprinter Skye Diamonds, a mare that won nine sprints and $690,150 in her career. Several five-furlong breezes on the tab for Maker barn. IMPERIAL KING’s dam went 2 for 2 in her career with both wins coming at two at Northlands Park. Third dam is Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Flanders. Barn sent out juvenile debut winner Dayoutoftheoffice on May 14. BREEZE ON BY’s dam was stakes-placed going a mile on dirt. Strong female family and the second dam, Voodoo Lily, was a solid graded stakes winner. Ralph Nicks is 20 for 82 (24%, $2.08 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in Gulfstream maiden special weight dirt sprints. SO VIOLENT is by a sire that wins 21% with juvenile debut runners while HONESTO’s sire scores at a 24% rate. ANOTHER DUKE’s dam won the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks around two turns.

EIGHTH RACE

ONYX won her first three turf starts, but has been in tough in all three stakes assignments this year. Finished just behind Midnight Soiree in most recent start and that mare returned to run third in stakes company with a 78 Beyer. Should appreciate today’s slight class relief. YESTERDAYONCEMORE looms the one to beat after a less-than-ideal trip in first start of the form cycle. A stakes-winner in Southern California at two, her form lines are dirtied up by that main track race two back and the Grade 3 against males to kick off her season.

TOURNESOL handled next-out winner Toffen (78 Beyer in starter-optional claimer) back on May 3. Lightly-raced filly hasn’t run a bad one (tough trip two back) and retains upside potential.

NINTH RACE

Although FRONT LOADED was the beaten favorite in his last two races, he’s a consistent performer at this level and think cutting back to six furlongs will be to his liking. Very competitive Beyer Speed Figures on display for a gelding that might be more patiently ridden this time around. SOLDOLLIE makes first start following 246-day layoff, but has excellent early speed and should be right in the thick of things from the opening bell. He won his last two fast-track sprints over this oval. RESERVENOTATTAINED steps up in class, but he’s won his last two races on dirt and really improved with the addition of Lasix.

TENTH RACE

HEIRESSINDY is a bit of a stab play as she hasn’t shown much in two starts against winners. Thought she showed some potential in maiden score three back, however, was likely in too tough two back and perhaps didn’t like the wet going in most recent effort. One more chance at what should be a decent price. BIMINI was taken by barn that scored with newly-claimed Memorize (6 to 1 odds) on April 2. Looked good handling weaker in her last two on the lead, but could find a tougher pace scenario as she leaps up in class. RUN DEVIL could be the one to catch and beat after being in tough against open optional claimers last time out. Fits very well at this class level.

ELEVENTH RACE

LIL BIT DANGEROUS can be forgiven for her most recent race, a dirt sprint in which she chased a fast pace following a 274-day layoff. She’s back to her preferred surface here and seems well-spotted for her local turf debut. The last time she raced on grass, she faced Sedamar, a filly that has returned to go 4-2-1-1 with Beyers ranging from 81 to 89 (now stakes-placed). ZODIAC PRINCESS the one to catch after setting the pace in her last three starts. The stamina just hasn’t been there for 1 for 21 performer, but she often gets a piece of the pie. BLUES SONGS, like the top pick, can be excused for the dirt debacle. She’s shown some ability on turf, but must deal with a long layoff.