ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, KILL SWITCH

FIRST RACE

BRIDGE TO BROOKLYN has only run on the turf once and it was a deceptively decent effort, as she was against the race flow yet closed some ground in the lane; wouldn’t mind a surface switch, either, as she closed nicely in her latest to get the show in her seasonal debut on the main track. PASSION-FOR-TREASURE has tactical speed and an inside post, and though she shortens up to a sprint for the first time she has to be respected based on her last couple of figures; needs to stay close from the start. DREAMER’S GETAWAY was routing prior to the layoff but she has sprinted in the past, and she ran well enough to get the show in two of three such races; lack of speed leaves her with a lot to do in the lane but given some pace help she may be able to pick up a share.

SECOND RACE

GREELEY’S BANKER benefited from a perfect trip in his latest but he could well get a similar set up today, as he draws inside and there are several speeds to his outside; this is a hidden rise in class, as his latest was for a higher tag but restricted to non-winners of three, but he can handle it if he can run back to that last one. MISTER STORM is one of the confirmed pacesetters in this field, and he comes off a sharp score at Tampa, also against non-winners of three; may be best of the speeds. CURRENCY CHROME makes the jump from non-winners of three after scoring at that level at Delaware last time out; he has speed but can rate, which could mean he falls into a nice stalking trip, possibly behind MISTER STORM, C’ERA UNA VOLTA and RIDE ON FAITH.

THIRD RACE

JUAN PABLO lost any and all chance when forced to check along the rail in the lane when a stricken foe came over on him last time; he’s back in at the same level he was at when he was claimed two back, at Tampa, and he looms a handful here if he’s able to run to his best grass figures. NOBLE HOPE is the main threat, as he has solid Beyers of his own; he’s at his best coming from off the pace but he has the speed to get position and figures to be well spotted from the start from his inside post under Paco Lopez. NICKI DE NEPHEW comes off a sprint and will be amongst the early leaders, and could perhaps be the one to catch; best recent Beyer came in his win over this course last year.

FOURTH RACE

MISS PARFAIT is out of a dam who won three of eight career starts, all sprints, and she has a couple of breezes that suggest she may have some speed in her first start for trainer Chuck Spina, who got off to a fast start at the meet; board tells more. KIRTAN is one of three fillies in this field with racing experience and she was game in defeat in her latest; 1st starter from the dam was hurt by a slow start in her debut but if she gets away cleanly perhaps she’s able to shake loose. SHE’S CLASSY gets Lasix in her second career start for trainer Jane Cibelli, who doesn’t win often with firsters; dam produced Looking At Beauty, a six-time winner who was best routing, but Orient Shopper herself posted her lone win in a sprint.

FIFTH RACE

WICKED MERCURY makes her first start since April, and horses coming off this type of layoff win at a high rate for trainer Jane Cibelli, who hit the ground running at the 2020 Monmouth meet; this filly has some of the better Beyers in the field and she’ll be tough to stave off in the lane if she’s able to run to them. SACRED UNION doesn’t have much pedigree power when it comes to turf, sire Union Rags never trying this surface and dam Derwin’s Star 0-for-1 on the green, but she has to be respected given the connections and the solid last try; could make an impact late. ACTING CHIPPER races for a tag for the first time and tries turf for the first time; dam won the Black-Eyed Susan

Stakes but never raced on the grass.

SIXTH RACE

FIORE has speed in a race that is light on same, and she could even prove to be the one to catch if she’s able to outrun PRINCESS JANET in the opening stages; if that rival does in fact shake loose she should get first run at her. PRINCESS JANET makes her first start off the layoff and claim by Skip Einhorn and she lands in a seemingly good spot in terms of pace; big threat if able to get loose and back down the fractions. SHANGHAI SHUFFLE went to the sidelines last year after a dull try in the slop at Penn but her prior Beyers put her in the mix; also has the speed to stay close, which figures to be an edge.

SEVENTH RACE

IF NOT NOW is kin to one runner, Ever Changing, who posted her lone win to date on the turf, and his dam was a multiple graded stakes winner who won her own debut on the turf; this gelding has a couple of works that strongly hint he’s ready to roll, and trainer Jonathan Thomas wins at a solid rate with debuting maiden claimers. SOUPER COHIBA will make his turf debut if he’s able to scratch in off the AE list; dam was a multiple stakes winner on dirt but the barn is always a threat with runners switching to the turf and this gelding goes for a tag for the first time. BIG RED ROCKS is out of a dam who won on turf and this colt has been working well enough toward his debut; trainer Michael Stidham does well with debuting turfers and this colt has been training steadily toward this first start.

EIGHTH RACE

MISS LIANA is easily forgiven for the failed turf try in her first start off the short rest and her best dirt tries do give her credibility vs. this field; she has proven speed and she meets a relatively paceless group, and that should give her an edge, as jockey Paco Lopez figures to try to exploit that possible tactical advantage. BRAMBLE BERRY also switches from turf to dirt in her second start following a freshening and she fits well on the strength of her most recent dirt figure, eared in her maiden win at Tampa; she came from off the pace there but she has the early foot to stay closer in the opening stages if need be. CHARGING RENEE, yet another going from grass to dirt, just missed two back at Tampa, albeit with the aid of a favorable trip and race flow; should find herself closer to the pace today if the fractions are indeed controlled.

NINTH RACE

KINGPIN gave way only in the late stages last time in a race rained off the turf but if this My Frenchman Stakes stays on the turf today, as expected, he will be tough to reel in, as this certainly does appear to be his best surface; there are others in here with enough early zip to stay close but it’s not a field bursting with speed and he figures to take advantage of a forward trip and mild fractions. ANOTHER MIRACLE lost his best chance at the start of the Texas Glitter Stakes at Gulfstream, as he was knocked around immediately as the latch was sprung after he banged into the gate; clean getaway will make all the difference today, as he has proven himself as a turf sprinter against top competition. MERU’s pedigree offers few clues as to his ability to handle this surface, as sire Sky Mesa never turfed and his dam was 0-for-five on the grass, but trainer Jorge Duarte Jr. excels with turf sprinters and this colt is a talented sprinter; almost certainly the one to beat if this race is switched to the main track.

TENTH RACE

KILL SWITCH is widest of the seven entered for this finale but he may also be the quickest from the gate, as this sprint lacks an obvious race flow and pace candidates; expecting him to be pushed to make the lead in the opening stages and he’s dangerous if he is in fact able to shake loose and control the tempo on a loose lead. SULTRY SAMURAI may be the main threat in the lane, as he has some of the better Beyers in this field; will likely spot position to the top pick but may be too good for these regardless if he’s able to run to his best figures. GONE ASTRAY KISS doesn’t win often but he does have steady Beyers and he comes off a decent try in his seasonal debut; tough to take as a win candidate given his overall record but eligible to grab a late share.