ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, DIGITAL SOFTWARE

FIRST RACE

FADED ROSE the first foal to race out of the W Ward-trained Hooligan, who won the Jamestown S., a 2yo turf sprint, in second career start. Munnings heightens the grass-sprint appeal. Not appealing - the likely win odds. Indiana-bred CARIMBA, another Ward-trained first-timer, needs a scratch to draw in, but I always give a second look to horses by Kantharos trying a turf sprint for the first time. RIGHT TO FREEDOM shows a mere $35K auction price but has been working very fast for a strong 2yo outfit.

SECOND RACE

URBAN INSIGHT came back from a five-month layoff and won a $100,000 maiden-claimer last April at Keeneland. Now she’s back from a fivemonth layoff slotted in nicely at the $50,000 N2L claiming class. Two best races last form cycle came fresh and willing to believe that can happen again despite a less than perfect work pattern for comeback. DESTINY’S DARLING could be a touch of value as outside pressing speed in a race she probably fits better than her price. Off since March 20 but has been doing some fairly serious work somewhere since that 59-second 5f drill (granted IND can be very fast in the morning) didn’t come out of nowhere. What happened to the early speed JOSIE once possessed? She’s not getting any better.

THIRD RACE

DIGITAL SOFTWARE with a fine debut second beaten only by Greyes Creek, who showed stakes potential winning an N1X turf-route allowance on the KEE course Wednesday. Lands in a maidenspecial lacking serious competition other, perhaps, than PARKLAND. The latter is a brother to former turf star Little Mike and did not run like a 68-1 shot last time in grass debut, where his second of 11 concluded with a snappy final quarter mile. SUMMER PALACE off from September to June and easily could be tighter for second start of the season, and only third overall, following a competitive Indiana Grand maiden performance.

FOURTH RACE

Class droppers into maiden-claimers from maiden-special-weight who have speed are a hot commodity, and COULD YOU can make the front and lead all the way in this $50K maiden sprint. Faced much better fillies last time. Suppose the recent little gap in works could be some cause for concern. McPeek barn won two on Thursday and CURLS AND BOWS seems like a well intended MSW dropper. Just got back to six furlongs last time from routes and could do better second time sprinting this cycle. MEDIA MENDACITY had improved speed in her second start and though turf-leaning in terms of pedigree might prefer the dirt.

FIFTH RACE

Tough race. CHAPS has been facing the best competition and might make a lead going a modest tempo. Obviously the question is a two-turn mile, since he has only sprinted, but the price should be right to guess he can stay. I struggle to tell whether EMPIRE OF WAR is a hidden talent ready to break out or just very mediocre. An excuse here, a sign there, some encouraging works, but suspect he might wind up a meaningful underlay as bettors scramble to find the right horse in this race. BIRD’S EYE VIEW can stay close to a soft pace and has run well enough on several occasions to contend, but his herd instinct seems to kick in hard whenever a win is within range.

SIXTH RACE

Quite the performance from HEAVENLY SIS last out considering all her previous starts had come from the front end, and on June 20 at CD she rushed home from 11th to just miss in a one-turn mile at this class level. If anything, the two-turn mile is a better fit for a filly who nearly graduated last fall at KEE. FLATOYA was first-time Lasix last out, and maybe some combination of that and maturation (was her first start after a winter break) produced the improved performance, rather than the surface

switch, dirt to turf. Bred to get a mile, even if she seemed to tire slightly late in her lone previous start over the distance. MARKET RUMOR not far behind the top pick in their common last start, albeit with a much less eye-catching trip.

SEVENTH RACE

VINTAGE PRINT’s win over FANCY LIQUOR last out came with an assist from a shadow at the threeeighths pole, which FL saw fit to hurdle, throwing him briefly off stride. Nonetheless, I’ll guess Vintage Print, who was making only his second grass start while racing for the first time in nearly four months, has the greater upside on the day. He seemed still to be a little green in the homestretch last time while still finishing strong, and a fine trip stalking a pace that ought to be faster than average seems possible. FANCY LIQUOR the lesser regarded entrant from the Maker barn, with Field Pass the likely favorite, but this horse has done little wrong on three starts and as mentioned above nearly won last time despite making a serious miscue. Two more sharp-seeming works since the last out. BAMA BREEZE steadied ever so briefly before getting through on the inside last time, and while he did save ground, he was disadvantaged racing last behind a pokey pace that helped Field Pass get home. Post 11, however, is decidedly less than ideal. Field Pass will be overbet and one can’t help note how poorly he ran in his lone start over the somtimes-tricky KEE course.

EIGHTH RACE

MR. MONEY found a very challenging spot for his 4-year-old debut, and I can forgive him that loss, but I expected to see more from the colt in his second race this year. Didn’t run poorly, though, in the Blame, and there was too much talent at age 3 to give up quite yet, not with those very encouraging drills for this cut-back to 6 1/2 furlongs and at the expected fair odds. WHITMORE’s qualifications speak for themselves. He’s going to be odds-on, however, and while he likes KEE, he loves OP, and the quality of the competition he beat in stakes races there this winter does not, in retrospect, look especially strong. Perhaps not a foregone conclusion? TRUE TIMBER changes owners, trainers, circuits, and I’m not sure cutting back in trip is going to be especially successful. His top performances put him in win contention, but I’d guess that even if he does run well, he’s not finding one of those just yet.

NINTH RACE

ZULU ALPHA is a strong favorite I won’t try to beat. He’s a proven performer on the KEE sod and is getting a tuneup here toward the Breeders’ Cup Turf, run at the same distance on this course. Regressed at odds-on last time after two monster performances, but expecting enough of a bounceback toward the top that he just wins. Might hunt a bit of exacta-pool value trying to get someone second other than Arklow. HE’S NO LEMON ended 2019 in excellent form and began his 4yo campaign with a fine, closing third in the L’ville at CD, coming just 1 1/4 lengths behind ARKLOW. Guess you could even see him as a pricey win threat, if you don’t want Zulu Alpha. ARKLOW didn’t draw well and cuts it close even when he does manage to win. Don’t get me wrong - he’s a fine, fine 1 1/2-mile grass horse capable of winning this.