ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, WHERE’S OLIVER FIRST RACE

GATITO fits at this level and now goes third off the layoff in current form cycle. If the 3 and 5 hook up early then this gelding could trip out best. We like this outside post. Obviously, this horse responds well to Arrieta. DOUBLETURBO did win when last seen off a layoff and it was only two back at Delta. We can excuse recent stakes race where he only beat one home. Velazquez often rides for this barn. MAY WE ALL has speed and gets a weight break today. We think they gun. If not, then this gelding has passed a runner before. Keep this in mind: if they do stalk then they will have to go around the other speed in the 5 whereas if drawn outside then they can sit off the flank in what is a more comfortable spot for a horse.

SECOND RACE

This race is tough mainly because we don’t know what Mac Robertson wants to do. AZUSA ST. flips flops riders with the rail. Why? Does the class drop have anything to do with it? We like this barn off this type of layoff. WORN A BIT is by a 6% debut sire. His dam went 86-18-15-12 and earned 202K. This is her first foal to race. We don’t see very many T-breds for this QH barn but to make things more confusing the leading rider gets a leg up. HENRY O’HENRY is by a 9% debut sire. His dam went 10-2-1-1 and earned 17K. All 5 sibs won with 4 having beat winners. Gap in works from June 6th to the 23rd. Every horse in this race is a gelding.

THIRD RACE

Someone has to challenge the 4 on the front end or this race is over. That someone is TOUR DE FORCE. He comes in fresh and that should sharpen his tactical speed a tad more. This horse showed speed in New York and that is good enough for us. We like that bullet work on the 15th. Second time with new barn is another plus. Finally, the leading rider gets a leg up. GATO GUAPO has won two straight here and done so with something in reserve. He also got an early breather in both and that might not be the case today. He is still a horse for course and goes for a barn that is 38% with horses that won their last

race. UNLEASH THE BEAST is just a solid horse. He goes for Diodoro and draws well all with Arrieta up. THETRASHMANSCOMING exits a key race where 3 of 7 returned to win with figs of 74, 82, and 73.

FOURTH RACE

DIXIE BLUES did little off the layoff but it was going short on the dirt. Now he drops in class and gets back to two turns on the turf which we think is a better fit for him. This gelding got a 65 Beyer on this sod only four back and did so from the rail. BYE BYE BENNIE has some tries last summer that fit. What if he needed his return try? Arrieta stays put. DERBYS MONEYMAKER ran third the last time that he tried this sod and did so at 56-1. His recent dirt sprint was an even effort and he gets in light once again with Harr up. YOU SAY SO is by a 7% debut turf sire. His dam went 3-0-0-0 on the green. Lone grass sib is 10-1-0-2 and earned 52K. GOPHER GOLD is by a 3% debut turf sire. His dam went 10-12-2 and earned 28K on the green. Lone sib is 2 for 2 on the grass and earned 52K in the process.

FIFTH RACE

OH LARRY gets a positive rider switch and drops in class. He actually ran OK on the dirt around two turns seven back. All of his starts since then have been on the grass. Some are decent. What if he is just better now and it wasn’t the surface switch that caused it? Let’s face it, his grass breeding isn’t very good. WHISKYFORBREAKFAST just figures. He ran well in both starts to date and now goes second off the layoff and second time this dirt. DON’S FINAL FINAL is the other obvious runner. Twice he has gotten a Beyer speed figure in the 40’s. VOOMERANG is by a 7% debut sire. His dam went 9-1-2-2 and earned 33K. Four of six sibs won.

SIXTH RACE

WHERE’S OLIVER beat special weights on the grass at Tampa four back and that is never easy. He then finished second when facing first time winners. Off the grass two back so there is your excuse. In his most recent, he faced a full field on the Churchill lawn and was sent off at 28-1. While 8 wide, he only lost by 5 lengths. We say that this gelding is still improving and that easier foes will put him over the top. PINE GROVE ROAD is a horse for course that just won at 4-1. This gelding has hit the exacta in 16 of 30 starts. OFF THE MEDS just ran better when first on this sod. He draws inside and figures to improve second time here all while Eikleberry gets a leg up. WHERE’S JORDAN is in our supers. DAZZL’N MISCHIEF is by a 13% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green. Two sibs are a combined 3-0-1-1 on the weeds.

SEVENTH RACE

GOTTA LIL CAPTAIN has improved his Beyer speed figure in every start to date. He might be even better as a 4YO. Works are fine and regular rider along with weight break tag along. SIOUX VALLEY actually ran evenly off the layoff and now adds a full furlong. This gelding just missed versus special weights multiple times last summer. PURPLE MONSTER just figures. He seems to prefer this dirt.

EIGHTH RACE

MISS PERFECTA is three for three on the grass. She has tactical speed and comes in fresh so know her early. We like this post, barn, and jockey. AFTER RED SUN ran well off the layoff but she was claimed. Broberg is 27% off the claim and the leading rider stays put. Notice how connections find a spot where they can’t lose this horse. MIZZEN AIR looks better on the green. The Davis barn has been money all meet long. Watch out when Arrieta gets a leg up as they are 2 of 5 here. STORMY MUSIC is someone we originally picked second.