ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, CATCH A BID

FIRST RACE

PRIORITIZE never panned out after starting out with some promise on turf but has taken to dirt nicely since switching over late last year; distance could be an issue if this race comes off but he handled the wet track two back when rallying to just miss and he exits a solid effort for 2nd behind front-running It’s All Relevant (99 Beyer). BUNDIBUNAN has just one win since taking his turf debut early last year but his form has held up in some tough spots, including that game effort through some trouble when 4th in the Dueling Grounds Derby last September; good effort off the layoff last time to rally for 3rd from far back. VALUE ENGINEERING took a while to build on his promising debut while having trouble putting races together but he looked good breaking his maiden with a late burst up here last summer, and he improved again to win off the layoff last month with a strong late finish. CAN’THELPBELIEVING has plenty of back class to be tough in here and he ran well off a similar long layoff at Woodbine in September of 2018; last win came in the Grade 2 Sky Classic in August of 2017 but he has only made seven starts in that span.

SECOND RACE

DAWN’S EARLY LIGHT ran a winning race when dropped at Keeneland last October and was taken by Gargan; caught wet tracks going a mile in his first two starts for this barn but finished a good 3rd when turned back and returning to fast dirt in his final start before the break; looks like a good fit here as he goes turf to dirt. KABOB took no money when debuting in a big field early in the Belmont meet but he actually made a mild move in that spot after getting away to the back of the pack and racing wide; wound up weakening late but did some running and can improve with that race out of the way. LORENZEN failed to fire as the favorite when dropped off the layoff two back and was claimed; faced a better field of maiden claimers last time and made no impact but did earn a new top figure.

THIRD RACE

GHOST GAME improved noticeably with the class relief two back while making a strong run to prevail after having to steady back early, and he took another step forward last time while coming with a game late finish into a modest pace to fall just of short 2nd; stretches out off the claim for Servis, who has made a positive impression from limited starters so far (20% wins and a positive ROI from his first 98 starts) and who is 2 for 4 off the claim. THE ROCK SAYS has already run well over course and distance and he owns all the fast races in this field which, when combined with him being first off the claim for Diodoro, conspire to make him the clear horse to beat in this spot; perhaps not the most reliable heavy favorite in the world, with just the one narrow win to go along with seven 2nd or 3rd place finishes, but he is supposed to be tough to beat here. UNIVERSAL PAYDAY missed a lot of time after hitting the board in all three starts as a 2yo and he has shown improved form since returning for Trombetta; took over after contesting the pace in his route debut last time but was no match for Broad Street Bully (now 3 for 4 to start his career) and just lasted for 2nd at the end.

FOURTH RACE

LEAVEUWITHASMILE has had most of her success out of town but she didn’t run poorly at all up here last summer when stumbling badly at the start and only tiring late after contesting the pace, and she faced better when returned to NY in February; caught slop off the layoff in a spot where she had no chance with heavily-favored Hello Beautiful, a multiple stakes-winning sprinter who earned a 94 Beyer for that blowout win. PICK UP THE FONE made her first start for Pletcher a winning one off

the short layoff last time when getting to the lead and lasting the final furlong over favored Don’t Get Khozy, who went on to win her next two starts with Beyers of 72 and 83; there doesn’t appear to be much pace in this spot and cutting back a furlong helps. STUNNING MUNNINGS does have some speed and she can do better here after chasing a fast pace of the bench last time in a race that was won by deep-closing class-dropper Wedontbelieveher; good fit here and can do better in her second start back.

FIFTH RACE

VOLIERO 0-4 to start with figures falling in a tight range but he may have more to offer after being compromised by post position and trip in each of those starts; gets one more chance while finally moving inside, as he may have much more positional speed than he has been able to show from his outside draws. SANDRO THE GREAT prepped in that debut that was rained off the grass and he showed some potential in that first turf run vs. open company last time despite stumbling awkwardly at the start and getting outrun behind a solid pace going long; he is bred for that kind of race, and he did have a setup after that poor start, but he raced on late and earned the top figure in this field for the effort. SCUTTLEBUZZ came up short as the favorite in his turf debut last time but there is an argument to be made that he was best in that spot after breaking poorly and then carrying a sustained run into that race, only to just miss at the end; bred to stretch out.

SIXTH RACE

GIANT SHOES closed strongly to win first time out in the slop, which prompted his connections to take a shot in that rich Stallion Series race on relatively short rest in his second start; showed improved speed going a mile two back to duel the pace and was legged up on turf last time, which seems unlikely to be his surface; cuts back with forward to go. BIG THICKET has earned two of the best figures of his career in his two starts since being claimed by Rudy; he is tactical from a nice outside post and figures to be competitive once again in his current form. MISSION WRAPITUP struggled a bit in the NY-bred stakes ranks after a promising debut win; finally seemed to turn it around when scoring from off the pace two back, though the horse he ran down isn’t much on dirt, then did his best to no avail in the Mike Lee making his first start for Chad Brown; contender but wouldn’t take a short price.

SEVENTH RACE

CATCH A BID took control on a rated pace and crushed allowance rivals off the bench at Churchill last month; had all the best of it there but as a starting off point it was just about perfect as she paired up her top figure without having to get own to serious business, and she showed plenty of potential as a 3yo last year; dangerous. CLARA PEETERS ran very well to just miss after a difficult trip in her stateside debut, then got a much better one when rallying to close down a solid field of allowance rivals at Belmont last time; stretching out should pose no problem but she will need a trip. VIADERA won three times in Europe prior to shipping over to race for Chad Brown and she didn’t run poorly at all in her stateside debut, despite having no chance to impact that Intercontinental behind Newspaperofrecord; this is easier and she can easily take the necessary step forward.

EIGHTH RACE

LOST TICKET did benefit from a fast pace, and also from the favorite Voting Agreement failing to run her best race off the layoff, when scoring on the cut back last time, but that may not be giving her enough credit as she was never outrun early and came with a strong late run to prevail; showed plenty of potential at the start and can improve again, though this is clearly a tougher spot. LADY LAWYER went 3 for 3 on the all-weather surface in England for Gosden, though her turf races weren’t bad at all; good effort in her stateside debut when tracking a longshot leader going seven before taking over, and then engaging in a game duel with stablemate Stone Tornado through the stretch, only to fall to closing Clara Peeters (see Race 7) at the end; has the speed to handle this cut back and she is going to be a short price here. TURF WAR ran well in both starts over course and distance last summer without winning then went to Belmont and rallied gamely to close down the Christiecat with a competitive figure; starts back off the layoff with a trainer change and will need some pace.

NINTH RACE

RISKY MANDATE looked good winning the first two starts of her career last summer, including an allowance win up here going this distance, then finished a game but no threat 3rd in the Prioress before hitting the sidelines; ships back in following a useful return at Churchill last month where she was away to the back of that field and wasn’t rushed early, before rallying for 2nd behind classdropping Unique Factor. INDIAN PRIDE clearly has the potential to be winning races like this, at least, and she can put her ample early speed to good use in this spot, which does not project to be run at a fast pace; easy win off the bench when getting the run of the race in a short field and never breaking much of a sweat. PLEASE FLATTER ME was never a threat to the top filly Guarana off the long layoff last time but she was game to get 2nd in a needed return; began her career with plenty of potential and is already a two-time stakes winner over this trip.

TENTH RACE

GOLCONDA never threatened while behind several of these same rivals in this condition at Belmont last month but he was conservatively ridden there in his first start off the layoff and was racing on well late after getting caught behind horses coming to the stretch and having to steady; 5yo maiden should be set for an improved effort now and he has better turf races in his past. OPERATIVE ran pretty well first time out after being bothered at the break and taken back in a race that was dominated on the lead, then was rated after a better start last time and failed to make an impact; drops. K. K. ICHIKAWA finished ahead of the top one last time while making his career debut, and did so despite getting shuffled back on the turn to lose position; lasix on for his second start and he is perfectly drawn to the inside.