ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, LILA’S LUCKY LADY

FIRST RACE

DINNER AT CRUMPIES was getting better at Oaklawn where he improved his Beyer speed figure in every start. Then he came here and tried two turns on the grass which just didn’t work but no harm trying. We thought his most recent was going to be better and it was as he ran a Beyer top of 55. He did so even though he hopped at the break. How many points did that cost him? 5 or 10? Now he goes third off the layoff and gets an extra half furlong to work with. HI HO CHEERIO just ran better and now goes second time this dirt. Arrieta is riding great and is now your leading rider (by one over Eikleberry). Expect those two to battle all meet long. As for this gelding, he adds a full furlong and draws outside. The main knock is that this barn is 3% with special weights. FLORIDA TWO STEP just ran a Beyer top and now jumps in class. He draws the attack post and has some tactical speed.

SECOND RACE

LETS PARDI MARTI has run well on the grass twice now. Second time this sod can only help and we like that Arrieta stays put (29% with this barn overall). A good post and solid turf breeding round out the appeal. BLUE LIZZY ran well in her debut and is more likely than not to improve second time everything. A better break would help as she broke dead last in said debut. CYNICAL GIRL continues to burn chalk players. Second time turf snaps streak? There isn’t much pace in this turf sprint if this filly sits back early so maybe today is a good day to gun. HOT BRANDI is by a 7% debut sire and a 1 for 14 debut turf sire. Her dam went 14-3-3-3 and earned 45K (no turf). Lone sib is 4-0-0-0 with one turf start. GOTHAM CITY QUEEN is by a 8% debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. Lone turf sib is 3-1-0-0 and earned 37K (won turf debut).

THIRD RACE

PAPA’S ISLA DOLL draws best with outside draw. She has speed and adds a full furlong along with Arrieta. Hers is the best trip, right? She has won two of three at this tricky distance. A ROZE AND

WINE won nicely in her debut and did so going today’s distance which is especially tough for a debut. She has a recent work and goes for a barn that is 18% with horses that won their last race. BINDING TIME can pass runners and gets good race flow if the 2, 4, and 7 all gun. Form cycle hints at better and you get Mac in your corner.

FOURTH RACE

CHAMPAGNE AFFAIR is very unlucky in that this race is quite good for the level. Trainer Karl Broberg is having a good meet and placing horses in the right spots is a lot of it. This filly has some speed but can stalk just as easily. First time this dirt is the smallest of knocks. The one to beat. DAT GIRL has a couple of good tries at Oaklawn where the racing is always good. We like that she showed speed in her local debut even if she tired late. A return to sprinting is fine with us even if this barn is only 5% route to sprint. STUNNED is a horse we originally picked on top. Sire only gets 3% debut winners but this filly is a 4YO. Her dam was un-raced while lone sib is 1-0-0-0. July 8th work was 3rd best of 39. MUWAAN MAT is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam went 6-0-0-1. Three of four sibs won with two having beat winners (99K and 41K).

FIFTH RACE

KID’S INHERITANCE did cost 80K which is a lot for around here especially for state-breds. Sire gets 14% debut winners. Dam is 9-1-1-1 and earned 11K. Four of five sibs won with three having beat winners (two best earned 160K and 216K (won 2YO debut)). Works at CD are well spaced. We think there is no way this colt goes off anything near 8-1 morning line. PASS THE CAT ran well in his debut. All 6 sibs beat winners. FITZPATRICK is by a 16% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam went 28-3-1-4 and earned 51K. Lone sib is 24-1-6-1 and earned 42K. THE ALLIGATOR HUNTER is by a 15% debut sire. His dam went 10-1-4-4 and

earned 43K. One of three sibs won but it was a multiple winner of 209K. CAUSEIMCHOCOLATE is by a 1 for 6 debut sire. His dam went 43-8-5-5 and earned 153K. Lone sib is 4-0-0-0. STAY MY FAYVORITE is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 32-8-4-9 and earned 246K. This is her first foal to race.

SIXTH RACE

LILA’S LUCKY LADY is feeling great and draws well today. Trainer stats are good across the board. Race flow is solid. All of that is fine and dandy but not what we like best. Jockey Francisco Arrieta is 3 for 3 when riding this filly (31% for this barn overall). The class jump is icing on the cake. DREAMING BIZ is bred to like the grass and just won on it. She could improve second off the layoff, second time turf, and second time two turns. Many like this jockey on the green. TRENDY NEVE just missed on this sod and ran a Beyer top in the process. GREY WAVE is by a 5% debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. Three turf sibs failed to hit the board.

SEVENTH RACE

Wow, here is another maiden claiming race that is very good for the level. Two in a single day is something we don’t ever remember seeing here. HUNTER’S HELLCAT ran well two back and then broke last in most recent. Now she goes third off the layoff and draws outside which is the place to be going 6 1/2 panels. UNBRIDLEDMOONLIGHT has speed and draws outside main pace foe. Class drop is noted. SPEEDING LADY is the other main speed. Back to back at this tricky distance helps and her form cycle hints at better. PILOTS STAR is by a 5% debut sire. Her dam went 53-3-8-11 and earned 93K. Two of six horses won but only once each.

EIGHTH RACE

MISCHIEVOUS MO did get a 48 Beyer in his debut as a 2YO and it came in a turf route at Hawthorne. He beat over half the field home that day. His second turf start came before the layoff and it was poor but perhaps something went awry hence the layoff. Turf breeding is very good and this gelding did cost 240K. Works are longer. HOIST YOUR GLASS just ran a Beyer top and it came first out on this sod. Now he goes third off the layoff. Race flow could break in his direction if some inside runners decide to gun. SLIGHTLY CRAFTY should be a price. He gets in light with Harr up. Those OP tries versus special weights going two turns were OK. His last two local turf tries resulted in Beyers of 44 and 47 and that isn’t too bad. With a better effort today maybe this guy blows up the tote Joe exotic-wise. YOUWONDERWHYIDRINK is by a 5% debut turf sire. His dam went 21-6-4-4 and earned 89K on the green. One of three sibs won on the turf with another hitting the board. SEMI CHARMED DAY will take money just not ours.

NINTH RACE

WINTERS RUN broke his maiden going a flat mile last summer and did so showing tactical speed. There isn’t much pace in this race so a good trip is upcoming. Sprint to route is a nice touch. YOU SAY SO has some speed and gets back to the dirt. Class drop is noted and we like this inside post at this distance where the first turn comes up quick. BRANDY CHASER got a 53 Beyer going two turns at Tampa only three back. Previous tries from the rail have been poor but the sample size of two is small.