ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, NATE’S WAY

FIRST RACE

SQUOX ran evenly in her debut and then finished with some energy late. Lone sib is a multiple winner of 163K (won 2YO debut). Let’s see if this filly can improve second time racing while moving out a couple of posts. GO FIGURE is by a 15% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 3-0-0-0 and this is her first foal. This filly cost 20 grand and goes for Broberg all while working locally. WINK TEXAS didn’t have a clean trip in her debut. We bet she learned a lot. Add first Lasix today for a better try. MY ALIBI is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 9-2-1-1 and earned 52K. Both sibs won including a multiple winner of 252K. LARISSA is the first runner for this sire as a 2YO. Her dam was un-raced. Lone sib is 4-0-0-0. DIALED J is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 10-1-1 and earned 4K. Both sibs won with a one a multiple winner of 36K.

SECOND RACE

PRETTY PRODUCTION is just better versus restricted claimers something she gets back to today. Some of her best tries have come on this dirt. In a seven horse field, we don’t see how this mare is going to be near 12-1 morning line. She has some tactical speed and draws inside main pace foes. Soooooo .... if Smith guns then a forward position can be had. SHE’S TOO COOL is feeling good and has hit the exacta on this dirt in 4 of 5 starts. Dominguez and Asmussen are 32%. THE LUMBER GAL is not in good form but her last three races have come on the grass which we can agree is not for her. Now she drops in class for Broberg which seems like a good thing. Yet to try this dirt is a small knock. We don’t see this barn using this jock very often.

THIRD RACE

NATE’S WAY is fresh speed in a race without any speed. This gelding ran well the last two times that he ran off a layoff. Works are fine and DelCid often rids for this barn. Wire please. SENOR BLAIR just ran well on this dirt and is a hard trier in general (10 of 17 in the exacta). Unless something unforeseen happens, this gelding will be chasing our top early all while cutting back a half furlong

in distance (and drawing the rail). HE’S A RANGER did get a 74 Beyer only two back at Lone Star. With that track closed due to Covid, we have been seeing a lot of their shippers here. Not sure added half furlong helps this gelding but current form is still good. RIDE A SAINT exits a key race where 2 of 8 returned to win with figs of 57 and 64.

FOURTH RACE

IM NOT SHY is by a 9% debut turf sire. Her dam finished third in her only turf start and earned 2K. Lone grass sib is 3-1-1-0 and earned 13K (won turf debut). This filly just figures for team Asmussen. SMITTYS EYECANDY is by a 9% debut turf sire. Her dam went 14-7-1-2 on the grass and earned 373K (won grass debut). One of four sibs won on the green with another hitting the board. The long layoff is the X factor. CAZADORA tries maiden claimers on the turf for the first time. Plus, the blinkers go ON. SMART BUCK is by a 0 for 15 debut turf sire. Her dam went 23-4-5-6 on the grass and earned 220K (won turf debut). One of two sibs won on the weeds. DARK SARCASM is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam went 6-1-1-1 on the sod for 38K. This is her first foal to try the turf. FAST DRAW LADY is by a 0 for 3 debut turf sire. Her dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green and this is her first grass foal. BUGGELS GIRL is by a 4% debut turf sire. Her dam went 2-0-0-0 on the green. Four of seven sibs won on the grass.

FIFTH RACE

SIDNEY’S HUNCH gets in light and worked a bullet best of 44 on July 15th. He won his debut which bodes well for this return try. That try two back at the Fair Grounds was solid all things considered. OVERLYAPPEALING lures Guerrero and has some route tries last summer. This barn is 20% off this type of layoff and show a big flat bet profit. DOOLIN has some speed and tries winners for the first time. Race flow is average and he draws OK.

SIXTH RACE

MUCH CLASS has never missed the exacta on this sod. OK, it was only two starts. He goes for Broberg and is in good form. First call rider gets a leg up and he is 29% for this barn here. Versatile style is always a plus. SABER RUN just won on this sod even though it was his first start on the green and around two turns. Turf breeding is marginal. A new turf horse? The price will entice and the leading rider gets a leg up. STUCK IN VEGAS exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 65 and 60 (another finished 2nd with a 60 Beyer). A nice confidence boost last out. Those 64 turf Beyers 2 and 4 back fit here.

SEVENTH RACE

CASE’S TICKET gets class relief and likes this dirt. Lone distance try was a solid second and 66 Beyer. Where is the recent work? HANSEN’S HOLIDAY just likes it here. Is he better around two turns? Probably but he comes in fresh and lures Dominguez. LORD COLLIERY did try open foes two back. Was his most recent too short? He draws best and has some tactical speed going seven panels.