ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, ZIP LINE TO HEAVEN

FIRST RACE

First post is 12:40 ET. Remember 12% takeout on Pick 5 wagers. A bit disappointed that MARY’S JEWEL couldn’t seal the deal after looming boldly outside Pretty Edgy in upper stretch of most recent dirt start, but she earned a rock-solid Beyer Speed Figure for that effort and should be up close to the pace once again. Lost all chance in the opening furlong of turf sprint 20 days ago when checked and shuffled back after a furlong. There’s a chance this pace could heat up with Mary’s Jewel, Uncommon Factor and Raging Blaze entered and that could help both LANDING ZONE and ELIZABETH T. Their trainer is 5 for his last 9 (44%, $3.88 ROI) with older (3-year-old and upward) dirt runners moving from route to sprint in the third start following a layoff of 61 to 120 days and both of these fillies fit those criteria. The former did a good amount of work in recent twoturn effort at Delaware. Pushed the second choice from the outside, took over three furlongs from home, beat back favored Bossy Bride (next-out 70-Beyer winner in $50,000 starter allowance at Belmont) and finished gamely in between rivals. She’s finished second in 50% of her starts. ELIZABETH T won going route to sprint in first start of the form cycle and was wired in recent Parx route.

SECOND RACE

MAGICAL LUNA won going turf to dirt on Halloween and will attempt to repeat that pattern in third start of form cycle. Don’t think she was ready for those faster-paced turf sprints in last two outings and should be closer to the pace stretching out to a comfortable seven furlongs. Finished ahead of two next-out winners in most recent dirt performance on March 7 (fifth-finisher returned to win a starteroptional with a 77 Beyer). Must avoid an early battle with TWIRLING LIZ, who should appreciate cutting back to one-turn racing after faltering at Delaware (third-finisher from that race came back to win a $50,000 “off-the-turf” starter allowance at Belmont with a 70 Beyer). CALYPSO GHOST would benefit if the top two hook up in pace warfare. She was wired in first start following the break and believe she’ll be tighter with that race under her girth. Back to preferred Laurel surface for Gonzalez.

THIRD RACE

J BERESFORD TIPTON has been the beaten favorite in his last three races, but think he ran better last time than the running line indicates. In a bit tight in mid-pack along the rail passing the stands the first time, he tried to get into it by splitting horses four wide with three furlongs to go and ended up five wide on the final turn. He failed to sprint home with the leaders, but showed some interest on the gallop-out and think he’ll appreciate this extra distance. TOM HAGEN will really need to be fit going this demanding nine-furlong distance following a 250-day layoff, but his good speed should play well in this spot and barn scored with 20 to 1 Grateful Bred off a 279-day break on July 11. No real excuses for runner-up effort two back in a race that produced a couple of next-out winners. Ended up in behind a tiring pacesetter on the final turn, but got out with plenty of time and just couldn’t run down Rohrbacher. Can’t knock NICK PAPAGIORGIO’s form as he’s finished first in five of his last six starts and handled this distance with aplomb in most recent outing. That was a very professional effort from start to finish and he can sit another wonderful trip from close to the pace. Barn is 6 for the last 17 (35%, $2.19 ROI) with older last-out winners on turf. Want to use EPITOMIZE in multiple-race wagers as he ran sneaky-well in first start of the year for Motion. Bobbled and bumped at the start, ended up last on the rail turning for home and finished ahead of the top pick despite finding traffic in the lane. Lots of upside potential.

FOURTH RACE

This seems like a class drop for HUSHED HIJINKS as he exits a decent maiden selling group at Gulfstream (the winner returned to finish second in a $50,000 starter allowance at Saratoga with a 75 Beyer while the seventh-finisher came back to graduate for $12,500 with a 67). He was keyed up going into the first turn, but ended up in a decent spot pushing a slow pace before tiring late. He might have needed that race, his first in 171 days, and it will be interesting to see how he reacts to this cutback in distance. Expect him to be off the pace

here. HINTING adds Lasix for second lifetime start and would expect him to take a step forward after a troubled debut. He ran right up onto heels on the turn before finishing with some interest. MOSBY’S

RANGER showed good speed in his debut when second-best to Tauber (returned to finish twice in starter-optional company with stereo 77 Beyers), then might have found two turns too testing at Delaware. Turns back and will probably be in the thick of things when they turn for home. VALUED NOTION ran sneaky-well in debut going a mile on dirt. Sold for $120,000 as a yearling and is a full brother to the solid sprinter Great Soul.

FIFTH RACE

Perhaps the long layoff coupled with the lousy return race coupled with the precipitous drop in class indicates that BELFOUR can’t run anymore, but he can’t go any lower on the class ladder than this “beaten” nickel and he ran very competitively against stakes-horses like Senior Investment at this time last year. Cal Lynch-trained horses usually do better in the second start following a long layoff. Could be a now or never situation. MCLEAN HOUSE received a beautiful pace setup in recent Delaware victory as the pace was hot and he rallied from the back of the pack. Traveled comfortably while in behind horses at the quarter pole, then split rivals decisively in midstretch to score. It’s questionable whether he’ll get that same setup here. DEDICATED is another late-kicker at the mercy of race and pace luck. Had a big look at it last time out before flattening out just a bit and can move forward in second start of the form cycle. GREEK GOD might receive a nice comfortable trip on the lead.

SIXTH RACE

ZIP LINE TO HEAVEN had the misfortune to tackle potential freak Fiya (next-out 98-Beyer winner of a restricted allowance) in turf debut. City Zip gelding stalked that moderate pace three wide and in between horses on the backstretch, angled widest turning into the stretch and couldn’t sprint home with the top ones. He only finished a nose behind next-out 63-Beyer dirt winner Artistic Reason, drops in class and has lots of turf breeding (dam a multiple stakes-winner at 5 1/2 furlongs on grass). NEXTSTOP POKIPC seems well-spotted for return to this circuit after runner-up effort with solid Beyer at Delaware. Tracked a moderate pace that day, took over turning for home and was kicked down by the favorite. The pace might be a little quicker and he’ll stretch out a half-furlong. HOSTILE WITNESS gets class relief shipping down from New York after tiring badly going nine furlongs against special weights. Best Beyer to date came in lone turf sprint.

SEVENTH RACE

Been waiting for TOUGHEST ‘OMBRE to get back to the turf and he does so at a reduced level after chasing good dirt horses like black type-earners Bobby G, John Jones, Tybalt, Senior Investment and Tappin Cat. There isn’t much pace in this race and he has the tactical speed to get up close to the lead. Hasn’t been on the grass since last summer and he gave a good account when second to oddson Salute the Colonel in a restricted stakes race. Farrior barn is 4 for the last 13 (31%, $3.43 ROI) moving from dirt to turf. It’s a shame that UNO EMAYO went to the sidelines for 420 days as the gelding had won three of his last four starts with the only loss during the streak coming when in over his head in the Grade 3 Appleton. He’s won over Laurel turf in the past and underrated barn sent out Regal Romance to win following a 491-day break last year at Gulfstream. Definitely want to use LUCKY RAMSEY in multiple-race exotics as the gelding finds a good spot to notch his first win since 2018. He’s made solid four-wide turn moves in both starts for Gonzalez only to fall just a bit short in the stretch. Very adaptable to the pace situation and can get closer here.

EIGHTH RACE

Perhaps BULL SHARK is a “trap” horse making first start off 382-day freshening for barn that is 1 for the last 36 (3%, $0.10 ROI) with dirt runners following layoffs of six months of longer. He looked good winning both of his starts here last year, however, does not drop into the claiming ranks and looms the controlling speed. Beat two next-out winners in that 7/7/19 heat including eventual Maryland Million Sprint winner Taco Supream (2-1-2 record from next seven starts with Beyers ranging from 83 to 97). POPIZAR was likely compromised by a slow pace and a sloppy track when returning from short break at Parx. Last early, he altered course outside in the stretch and was up for second late. Finished ahead of Deal Driven, who returned to Beyer 87 when second in a $12,500 starter allowance at Parx. Nine-time winner graduated for Vega barn here in 2017 shipping in from Parx and switching to Lynch. DAY THE MUSIC DIED has been knocking on the door and sports the tactical speed to be close to the lead when the real running begins. Up from the starter-optionals, but performed well at this level two back and might be set for best in third start of the form cycle with improving Beyers on display.

NINTH RACE

JAGUAR POZ is still a “maiden” on turf, but he earned a stakes-placing sprinting on the sod back in 2017 with a good late-running second behind odds-on Pay Any Price in the Turf Dash at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s been racing himself back into shape against solid company on dirt and believe he’s always been slightly better on synthetic and, perhaps, grass. Chased a fast pace last time out at Delaware in a race won by closing 12-time winner Arch Cat, think he’s a good fit at this class level and can factor at a nice price with a late bid. TEMPT ME TWICE wheels back on eight days rest for the important third start of the form cycle after bang-up runner-up performance at Delaware. Got right up close to the pace that day and finally made the front in deep stretch only to be overhauled by favored Battle Station. Stakes-placed gelding exceeded the Beyer par for this level in that start, but might face a faster pace here. EASTERN BAY wired them on dirt in first start off the Claudio Gonzalez claim and he won twice over the Laurel turf in 2019. Has a tendency to break a beat slow, but has enough tactical speed to find a nice spot in the early stages. Note that excellent barn is 0 for 26 over the past five years with last-out winners moving from dirt to turf. Listed as a vet scratch here on July 4.