ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, ELLE M’A SOURI

FIRST RACE

HANDS UP has earned a series of figures in the 50s since debuting with a decent effort last November and she may have to finally take a step forward in her NY debut, even with the significant class relief; worried that she didn’t run well last time at Churchill, but her effort prior to that was pretty good while no threat to an impressive winner. SCARLET’S SONG debuted sprinting on turf at Laurel and she raced greenly in that spot without threat after breaking a bit slowly; turf to dirt with blinkers going on for a very good trainer. ASSUME the horse to beat as she drops in to face maiden claimers for the first time while turning back for Pletcher; did face good horses in her first two starts but wasn’t particularly impressive either time.

SECOND RACE

KINKY SOX began on turf with some success but she has taken to dirt pretty well since making the switch and had really improved since returning from the break in her last two starts; won easily two back while earning a new top figure and improved again in her next start when rallying along the rail and getting outfinished late by favored Big Benny’s Tribute. HOT LITTLE HONEY went back to back at Aqueduct earlier this year, then stepped up in class to try a mile in her final start before racing was halted; returned vs. better in a fast-paced race and gave way. OVERTIME OLIVIA won a two-life claimer last October when switching from turf to dirt, then made five of her next six starts vs. allowance company; missed by a nose in her return from the layoff two back now goes turf to dirt again.

THIRD RACE

VOTING AGREEMENT looked very good winning her debut over course and distance last summer as a 2yo then, unfortunately, didn’t turn up again until last month at Belmont; wasn’t sharp in that first start back but she did bump with a rival at the top of the stretch before prevailing for 3rd; giving her the chance to improve off that effort and think she’ll be tough if she does. SPARKLING SKY got a perfect trip and took advantage a bit to post her only win up here as a 2yo, then stepped up to run in two stakes races at the end of the year; returns with a trainer change and may appreciate this cut back being a full-sister to stakes-winning turf sprinter Justa Lady. PEACEFUL broke her maiden up here last summer with a strong late run and she improved to a new top Beyer in her first start off the bench last time; was only second-best in that race but a repeat of the effort makes her tough.

FOURTH RACE

BLUNT FORCE has sprinted infrequently but has arguably run her best races when entered going shorter distances, including that career-best 75 Beyer effort last time when scoring on the cut back; nicely drawn outside for a high-percentage trainer and tough vs. this crew if just running as well. STAY FOND took advantage of a heated pace and a perfect ride from Dylan Davis to close down $10k claimers off the layoff last time; can argue she got a little lucky there, but she also has the back form to be a handful in here. DIRTY BIRD is dropping after facing tougher and failing to land a blow off the layoff last time; returns quickly on the drop and is one who will appreciate this distance.

FIFTH RACE

NO MO’ SPENDING debuted vs. open company at Churchill and had little chance there after getting outpaced from a wide draw and racing wide, and she looked a little green in that race, as well; fullsister to the talented NY-bred Blewitt can improve with that race out of the way. SAMBORELLA a $500k yearling by new sire Outwork (0-10 with first time starters so far; 1 winner from his first 14 starts) and out of an unraced dam who is a

sister to Grade 2 winning 2yo Nona Mela; has a strong female family behind her and debuts for an excellent first-out trainer. BUSTIN SHUFFLE was part of an entry that got bet first time out then proceeded to break slowly from the gate, before racing on with some late interest without threatening; full-sister to multiple winners Cards of Stone (3 wins, $124k in earnings) and Keep Bustin (9 wins, $329k) can improve for having that experience. SHANES PRETTY LADY is a half to 5-time dirt sprint winner Grassady by an underrated sire; debuts for a trainer who is highly-underrated with horses like this - Gullo: past five years, 2yo, first time starter, dirt, sprint: 6 for 31, 19%, $5.03 ROI.

SIXTH RACE

ELLE M’A SOURI made her stateside debut here last summer to no avail but she improved significantly from there, despite coming up short in each of her next three starts (excluding the 1/12 race where she dropped her rider); has to stretch out but came with a game late run once getting clear to close down maidens last time. COILEAN BAWN kept coming close without winning last year while showing that she could handle distance; returned from the layoff last time and picked up right where she left off while driving down maidens going ten furlongs. EBONY’s skimpy odds on her stateside debut were partly due to the field she was facing, and she finished a disappointing 5th in that race while defeating only a rival who has broken equipment and was pulled up; did have some trouble while looking to switch clear in the stretch in that spot but she didn’t fire at all once she got out.

SEVENTH RACE

MAGNOLIA’S LADY ran better than it looks first time out when failing to break sharply and then getting into some traffic in the stretch, before shaking free and putting in a good finish without threat; didn’t run as well last time but thought she might have benefitted from a more aggressive ride in that spot after breaking toward the lead and the rail; one more chance. TOWERING GAZE ran quite well first time out and might have even been unlucky not to win there, after being forced to try to rally along the inside in the stretch; may appreciate this cut back after contesting the pace and tiring going seven last time. SNICKET has finished ahead of both MAGNOLIA’S LADY and TOWERING GAZE in her first two turf starts and is clearly a contender here; tries again after being defeated as the favorite in both of those races.

EIGHTH RACE

STRIKE THAT lands in a race here where six of his eight rivals have earned a figure that eclipses his career top, but he has more upside than most and has looked good while finishing in the exacta in each of his first five starts; won easily two back while having no trouble going shorter and he actually gets some class relief for this after bumping into graded stakes-bound Volatile last time. RUNAWAY LUTE has something to prove here, after missing a lot of time and finishing last in his return from the extended layoff at Laurel; back-classer has bounced back from poor performances in the past and he is a big threat here with anything approaching his good race. FREE ENTERPRISE may be the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff after contesting the pace and tiring at Churchill last month; ran well in both Saratoga starts last summer despite getting run down as the favorite both times.

NINTH RACE

FLAP JACK is not the most likely winner of this race as he sprints on grass nd for the first time, but he has shown some potential from the start and has been in over his head a few times since starting back as a 3yo; prefer him going shorter and he ran well in his lone turf start, which came going a mile early on. JACK AND NOAH the horse to beat as the speed of the race exiting an easy stakes win over a couple of these at Belmont last month; hard-pressed to fins the race where he hasn’t shown up and he has already defeated likely main rival TURNED ASIDE three times. TURNED ASIDE has something to find in the face of JACK AND NOAH but those losses aren’t as cut and dried as they may appear and this colt has shown plenty of potential from the start; second off the layoff after giving away plenty to the favorite and chasing to no avail in the Sir Cat. l

TENTH RACE

OPERATIVE was bothered early and then a bit conservatively ridden when finishing behind AINTITFUNKYNOW on debut in a race featured no closing, then was rated after a better start second time out and failed to make an impact; faced maiden claimers for the first time on turf and gets a positive rider change. AINTITFUNKYNOW can be considered the horse to beat as he takes the needed drop for the first time from a nice inside draw; Maker’s numbers with the MSW to MCL move in turf routes are strong overall - 23 for his last 86, 27%, $2.36 ROI - but he is just 1 for 17 in NY in that sample ($0.32 ROI). MY PRIMO has made his last five starts on dirt without success, though he earned a career-best 68 Beyer in Kentucky two starts back; fits on turf form and will be a price.