ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, PRIVATE MESSAGE

FIRST RACE

Don’t know what’s becoming more reliable at this spring-summer meet at Gulfstream — a noon ET first post (which is every day) or a long-range forecast of possible thundershowers and mid80s temps. Yep, that’s the familiar outlook for this 9-race Friday card, although we’ll go ahead as usual with the caveat of all selections here are made for turf racing ON. Will begin with the newly gelded MURRAY’S BAR as your first most likely winner; Stonestreet color-bearer was odds-on before yielding late in his June debut for Wesley; first tag and the valuable experience combine with ‘the unkindest cut’ to make him a standout here. LORD FLINTSHIRE sports an intriguing look as a first-timer for the young sire Flintshire, a grass monster in his day; NY-bred homebred comes unveiled by the capable F.Abreu when looking to split up an all-Wesley, all-Irish-bred exacta that could be ended by GENERIC JOE.

SECOND RACE

A first tag in the third start of the form cycle of PRINCESS CORO might be enough to get her to the circle. Cairo Prince filly has been seeking the right surface and distance; thinking these six furlongs on the main might be just right, along with the needed escape from the MSW ranks. YOU’RE THE BEST also has never been risked for a tag; take a look back at her first two on dirt while forgiving the MSW turf miles and suddenly she’s viable for the normally high-percent Barboza. BY HIS GRACE, like some of the others, deserves a long look going short on dirt.

THIRD RACE

Still on cloud nine from their Schuylerville coup at Saratoga last week, the SoFla dept. of the Tim Hamm barn sends out THE PREDICAMENT as their next possible 2yo to earn a win photo; gotta love the way this gelding closed in his debut 3 weeks ago. HOT BLOODED switches off to the grass when stretching out; pedigree suggests he should be well-suited to all that. CASTLE KING ran respectably in the same July 3 as the top pick; won’t be 43-1 today.

FOURTH RACE

In a virtual replay of the 8th race on July 3, VERDICT IS IN will be looking to turn the tables on KEEPSAKEKITTEN simply by finding a length here, there, or maybe somewhere in the couch cushions; that was a noticeably improved try in his 2nd crack off the DiBona claim; hardly an implausible turnabout being proposed here. UNCLE ANDREW was third in the key 7/3 race and can be part of the tricks again.

FIFTH RACE

Dating all the way back to her runner-up tries on Tampa Bay Derby Day and behind Guarana at Keeneland, PRIVATE MESSAGE has seemed to be a filly with a future; took her a while to finally win one, having done so in her first Pilotti trip on the original Ky. Derby date, but yep, there it was; latest turf dud seems to amount to a failed experiment, as she now returns to a dirt sprint when realistically spotted vs. N2L-$25k fillies; call her the day’s best. REGGAE REVOLUTION can loom the top threat when loading-and-going from her open-air outer box; perhaps more early quicks than ever when fresh from the 4-month layoff. CHEZ PAREE can sit a pretty stalking trip from her rail slot.

SIXTH RACE

Been more than a year since GRAND NENUCO last had his picture snapped, but now that he’s had 2 races since the layoff, he’s ready to turn in his best; was right with the leaders in midstretch in both of those ‘20 tries before flattening out; no excuses now when perfectly spotted right back for this ‘beaten’ condition. Right alongside, WINGMAN drops precipitously for Hess after middling $35k types; everybody needs a wingman, don’t they? SON OF OAHU comes well-drawn on the hedge after finishing a solid 2nd in this same type of spot 3 Fridays ago.

SEVENTH RACE

Been nearly a year since GREAT SISTER DIANE has competed in anything but a stakes, so the class relief she’s getting in this N2x turf mile can hardly be understated; stretch-running type gives them a head start before she comes calling on serious business. MIDNIGHT SOIREE was third behind the top pick in the In The Breeze, which was won by a suddenly untouchable Belle Laura; another with the credentials to do this. ROSA STAR, like the top two, exits the key July 5 stake; was nearly 80-1 when keeping them honest from flagfall to that’s all.

EIGHTH RACE

Not expecting much price on R U LUCKY, given how he’s been favored in all four of his starts for Frank and Saffie, especially now that he comes cozily drawn in the open-air outer box from where Zayas can measure up the competition for as long as he wants; stalks ‘em into submission as a confident single on many a Rainbow ticket. Just to his inside, INGREIDO can provide a race-long target; April/May romper clearly has found his stride at 4. SEPTEMBERTEN and/or ALLURSTRA can help fill the verticals.

NINTH RACE

ZIP IT JESS outran her 39-1 odds when chasing a 43-and-change pace in her last-of-June return and is deserving of considerably more respect this time in what shapes up as a very unwieldy Friday finale; good as any in an oversubscribed lineup lacking a real standout. DANCINGWITHJIMMIEB still has yet to win on grass and has that unattractive 1-for-17 for all to see; still, her overall form is somewhat encouraging, and she does get an excuse for her latest; part of the tricks, quite possibly. DINNER AT FIVE, finally a maiden no more, surely will attract some action in a real scramble, as should PRINCESS AVRIL.