ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, BLUEGRASS PATRIOT

FIRST RACE

Del Mar racing resumes with an 11-race Friday card. First post normal 2 p.m. HORSE GREEDY and FABOZZI are tough to separate. HORSE GREEDY has been facing much better; his two Del Mar wins include a N2X in December prior to a pair of misfires. He takes a significant class drop to $20k claiming; his best races are simply faster than his main rival. That is FABOZZI, a turf horse most of his career. However, two dirt starts were solid. He won a $25k claiming dirt sprint two back, and now returns to a winning level while drawn outside where he can press the pace or go on with it. RICKEY B and CONCUR both have won at Del Mar, both trained by Manuel Ortiz, both have speed.

SECOND RACE

It might be folly to prefer BURN ME TWICE over PAPA TURF, who finished in front of ‘TWICE the last six times they met. But there are reasons the order can flip. BURN ME TWICE won twice at Del Mar; his main rival is 0-for-14 here. ‘TWICE drew a comfortable post near the outside; his main rival is stuck on the rail. ‘TWICE figures for a pressing trip outside his pace rivals. Perhaps he can turn the tables. Of course, recent history suggests PAPA TURF is simply a better horse. Though winless at Del Mar, ‘TURF finished in the money seven times here. He has speed to establish position inside, his best recent race is faster than the top choice. C DUB finished second in back-to-back races vs. slightly easier; he will be forwardly placed.

THIRD RACE

BORDER TOWN was favored last week in a N2X turf mile that was cancelled; he might be favored in this N2X turf marathon though the extra distance poses a challenge. ‘TOWN was in steep in a Grade 3 last out; he finished sixth. In addition to the tougher company, he also expended much energy pre-race. He became agitated on his way to the paddock, kicking and acting silly, and ran accordingly. The race was a toss. His two previous starts were stylish wins at eight and nine furlongs (MSW, N1X). The marathon distance of this race is a concern. He is by War Front, and produced by a sprint dam. But the distance is no problem for NORTH COUNTY GUY, wire-to-wire winner here last fall in a N1X at this 11-furlong trip. Off since February, he returns for a trainer whose layoff runners tend to fire. CATCH THE EYE, a filly vs. boys, scored a sharp win last out at mile and oneeighth. She acts like she will run all day.

FOURTH RACE

SMILING SHIRLEE returns to one turn as the horse to beat in this sprint stakes for Calbred 3yo fillies. She won a similar sprint two back; last time out a mile and a sixteenth was slightly out of reach. She finished second. Trainer Jeff Bonde shortens her to one turn, the same route-to-sprint pattern Bonde employed in this stakes race three years ago with winner Miss Sunset. However, the absence of pace gives BIG SWEEP a chance to steal it. ‘SWEEP finished third as the favorite last out, three lengths behind the top choice, but that was a route. A return to one turn, speed to make the lead if she chooses, ‘SWEEP has a shot up front. She won a sprint stakes two back against colts and geldings, running a fifthsecond faster than the top choice on the same card. Four-time stakes winner WARREN’S SHOWTIME defeated the top pair last out around two turns. ‘SHOWTIME is the most accomplished in the field, but while the top pair prefer sprints, ‘SHOWTIME is probably best in routes. She is entered in the G2 San Clemente (turf route) on Saturday. LOUD LOUD MUSIC has shown speed on turf; BEEN STUDYING HER will rally late.

FIFTH RACE

This N2X filly-mare turf sprint was rescheduled from last weekend; there is enough pace to set up the rally of QUERELLE. Third last out in a G3 mile, her sprint form through winter at Santa Anita includes two wins and two seconds from four starts. QUERELLE can sit, wait and blast home. MISS HOT LEGS benefits from the shorter distance of this five-furlong sprint after tiring at one mile. ‘LEGS loves the Del Mar course: a win, two seconds and a third from four starts. She has more tactical sped than the top choice, and should get a good trip positioned right behind the speed. AMUSE drops from a decent third in a G2; both previous turf races (routes) were okay. FANTASY HEAT drops after a creditable second vs. race-9 Daisycutter Handicap contender Tomlin. BULLETPROOF ONE, front-running stablemate of the laterunning top choice, is a 3yo facing older for the first time. She insures honest fractions.

SIXTH RACE

BLUEGRASS PATRIOT drops from Calbred specialweight to Calbred maiden-50 and faces a field void of speed. ‘PATRIOT pressed or dueled on fast fractions two previous startsa; he might shake loose against this easier group. Trainer Mark Glatt’s last nine maiden-claiming favorites produced eight wins and a second. Second-time starter IRREPROACHABLE merits longshot consideration, dropping in class and switching to dirt. He reportedly showed speed in works prior to his debut on turf, but could not keep up. He worked fast since, maidens from this stable often improve second out, and the race he exits already produced three next-out winners. SUMMER FUN shortens up after he set the pace and tired the final furlong at a mile on turf. His pace rival from that race (Foothill) shortened up Sunday and won a maiden sprint. Similar pattern with SUMMER FUN, dropping in for a tag for the first time.

SEVENTH RACE

Third last out at this Calbred N1X turf sprint level, OFFSHORE AFFAIR should get a great trip positioned second behind the speed. If and when the pacesetter falters, ‘AFFAIR would get first run. Likely winner if he runs two alike. SMOKIN BLACKJACK is the one to catch. The speedball always sets the pace; he was claimed for $20k from a win last out. The runner-up returned to win a claiming race. This is his first try on turf. PREACHING TRAINER finished second last out, in front of the top choice. ‘TRAINER will rally late.

EIGHTH RACE

Second-time starter SEPTEMBER SECRET gets the call despite a dismal debut in which she broke slowly, failed to show any run whatsoever, and finished ninth. Disappointing. But she reportedly trained well prior to her debut, she drops into a maiden-claiming race second time out, and gets Flavien Prat. Tab for a second-start wakeup. Firsttime starter BIG MAMA SUE is by Mr. Big, whose juvenile progeny won 9 of 31 first time out. ‘SUE is a sibling to one runner that won first time out. Bred to win early, seemingly working well, ‘SUE looks “live” first out. MUCHA WOMAN finished a creditable second in her debut vs. similar. STARS OF BLUEGRASS drops in for a tag and will rally late. SPICY SOMMELIER, stablemate of the top choice, is pure speed.

NINTH RACE

This turf sprint stakes is rescheduled from last weekend. Nine of the 10 original runners re-entered, and STEALTHEDIAMONDS is the one to catch. She finished third last out in a strong G2: winner Jolie Olimpica returned to finish second in a G1, and the runner-up Oleksandra returned to win a G1. ‘DIAMONDS drops in class and shortens to five furlongs while returning to the course on which she won twice. Long gone? TOMLIN looms an upset candidate; she switched to turf last out and ran the best race of her career. She sped to the lead, took heat, smoked the opening quarter in 20.72 seconds, and won clear. The mare she dueled with finished last, then won her next start. TOMLIN arrived at Del Mar nearly two weeks ago, and if the inside post (2 of 9) does not compromise her, she could upset. She has speed, but also is versatile. JO JO AIR arrives from Kentucky in top form; her fourth in an allowance last out was better than it looks. She pressed the pace, shook off her early rivals, led in deep stretch, then got swallowed by 1-2-3 finishers that rallied from the back. Good effort against the grain of the race flow. She could tuck into a cozy trip positioned third or fourth behind the speed. ARTISTIC DIVA and 3yo LIGHTHOUSE add speed. Late-runner STORMING LADY gets a ready-mare pace scenario for her kick.

TENTH RACE

This maiden-20 scramble is a good spot to take a shot with first-time starter FOXY CARMELA. She has shown a competitive spirit in team workouts, and though a career debut at the bottom class level does not signal confidence, there really is not much here to beat. It is a race tailormade for a first-time starter. ENRICHED BY DEB adds blinkers and drops in class after a disappointing fifth at odds-on. SOLITAIRE also debuts in a soft spot.

ELEVENTH RACE

Tough outside post for lightly raced MADMAN, but he ran better than looked finishing fourth as the favorite in his recent comeback, and can make amends in this N1X turf mile. MADMAN was keen and hard-held racing inside in the slow-pace race, pulled much of the trip, then finished well (23.24second final quarter) to miss by four. The race produced two next-out winners. Assuming he is more settled early, MADMAN can win from just off. LINCOLN CITY finished second last out under similar conditions. ‘CITY should get another pressing trip positioned just behind the likely pacesetter on the rail, and get first run. REPROBATE switched to turf and rallied from last to score a sharp maiden win. Lightly raced, much promise. STORM THE BASTILLE won here in fall; he can improve second start back from a layoff. DARK PRINCE is speed. Come and catch him.