ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, EVERY MINUTE

FIRST RACE

TONAL VISION drops for her turf debut after putting in a game late finish behind a rated pace in the mud two back, then getting in against stakesbound Spice is Nice last time; has the right running style for this surface switch and is a half to three turf winners from this dam. SUGAR FIX ships in to make her NY debut and brings five turf wins with her into a spot where her six rivals entered for grass are a combined 0-8 on the surface; has won three in a row and owns competitive figures to go along with a tactical running style. LITTLE RED FROG was claimed by Maker late last year, apparently with turf in mind as she had her first start for the new connections rained off, then finished 2nd to a better horse in her first start on the surface (Evil Lyn won three turf starts in a row earlier this year, and just finished 4th in the Grade 2 Appalachian after also being claimed by Maker); stretches back out after rallying for 2nd going seven last time.

SECOND RACE

UNRELENTING FORCE caught wet tracks in his first two starts at this level and gained too late in those races; stepped back up in class and stretched out to a mile off the claim last time, where he finished 2nd once again, now cuts back and returns to the right kind of spot following a bit of a layoff. MAJESTIC VIEW kept after a good pace over a wet track on debut, and weakened in the stretch as longshot Copper Chalice closed that race down from far back; drops in to face maiden claimers for the first time after once again chasing a fast pace on turf most recently. ROYAL SUSPECT was claimed by Roddy Valente in February at Santa Anita and shipped to NY, a move that was once very successful, though this horse wound up proving to be no match vs, MSW rivals going longer; cuts back and drops in class looking to do better.

THIRD RACE

TULA dropped her rider at Keeneland last April but surrounded that unfortunate event with three straight wins, two of those on turf while putting differing running styles on display; returns on the drop for an excellent layoff trainer. ROSEBUD’S HOPE was last seen in April taking part in a fast and contested pace at Tampa, before ultimately getting run over late by the talented Passing Out; there does appear to be some other speed in this spot, but she may just be fastest early, and she has run well in NY in the past. VIP NATION may be most compromised if ROSEBUD’S HOPE speeds off in this race, as she does prefer to be forward in her races; had a big excuse off the layoff last time when hitting the gate at the start and almost unseating her rider.

FOURTH RACE

OUR LADY OF LORETO ran well first time out when bumping into the talented Spanish Point (returned to win the House Party at Gulfstream and most recently dominated a field up here with an 80 Beyer), then blitzed a field of maiden claimers in her second start; sped off on a fast pace off the layoff last time and understandably tired late. ROUSEY and ENOUGH LOVE ran in the same race while returning from layoffs in mid-June, where they settled for 2nd and 3rd to the in-form Kinky Sox, who has since won again up here. ROUSEY also finished 2nd in her next start, behind class-dropping returnee Flashpackinbarbie, and switches from turf to dirt for this. ENOUGH LOVE prevailed on the class drop two back in an effort that was more game than anything else, but she can still improve for an excellent trainer.

FIFTH RACE

RINALDI was a two-time NY-bred stakes winner last year as a 3yo, winning one of those Stallion Series races up here over this inner turf course, and he exited that win to finish and excellent 4th

vs. tougher in the Grade 3 Saranac; nearly bolted at the start off the playoff last time, and appeared to need that race after moving up to track the frontrunning winner on a rated pace, before settling for second-best. OPT was compromised by that rated pace when behind RINALDI in that 6/26 race, which was his first off the bench; finished a good 2nd to Cross Border up here last summer, before coming right back in his next start over this course and distance to outfinish a couple of these same rivals. EVALUATOR also ran well behind Cross Border when last seen, though that was nearly a year ago now, and he will be making his first start following a long layoff in this spot; talented runner on either surface, but he needs pace.

MORE MANGO raced greenly while appearing to need that first start Tampa in March, and she improved last time while chasing heavily-favored Ocean Fire on the lead to no avail; puts blinkers on making her first start for Maker off the claim. CHECKSANDBALANCES went favored in her debut vs. a better field and raced a bit greenly early while pulling against her rider, before just going evenly in the stretch behind repeat winner Lovely Lucky, who crushed allowance rivals up here last week with a 92 Beyer; drops for her second start. MALIBU ANTHEM has run pretty well in both starts to date in Kentucky while settling for second-best each time; moves to turf for an excellent trainer and has enough pedigree to handle the switch.

SEVENTH RACE

MY MAN FLINTSTONE is 0-5 on dirt so far, but he enters this spot with some of the best figures in the field after last being seen dueling with fellow class-dropper Edgemont Road and coming away second-best; has speed and appears to have found a likely spot. MISTER BOBBY has never finished first in a race but he owns figures that are comparable to the top one and he also ran well in his most recent start while chasing the speedy Riken to no avail; perfectly drawn on the outside with tactical speed. FED FUNDS caught a wet track in his late-season debut as a 2yo and was never a threat after having to steady early; returned on the drop at Belmont last time and rallied inside to pull clear in an improved effort; upside.

EIGHTH RACE

MYHARTBLONGSTODADY won just 1 of 5 for Chad Brown as a 3yo in 2018, though she got unlucky more than once while showing potential; managed only one start following a long layoff last year and she made it count while holding her position in traffic from behind a solid pace, and ultimately working out a run in the stretch to close that race down easily; starts back from another layoff, this time for the underrated Abreu. BARREL

OF DESTINY didn’t have the clean trip the top one ultimately managed in the 11/23 race at Aqueduct, but she has now won three in a row, including a career-best effort first off the claim for Maker last time; has shown improved positional speed recently and that makes her dangerous going forward. OUT OF TROUBLE was in good form last summer in NY while finding wins hard to come by; did not run well in her return to this circuit last time but got herself too far back early in that spot, especially considering that she has fine tactical speed, before rallying some late.

NINTH RACE

FUNNY GUY was an underappreciated 3yo who won a Stallion Series race sprinting before finishing a good 2nd in the Mike Lee, placed in two stakes races on turf. and won the Albany, all while never being favored in a dirt race; returned from the layoff looking stronger than ever while overpowering a good field in the Commentator and he is going to be tough here if just maintaining that form. MY BOY TATE may not be quite as good as he was prior to enduring that long layoff at the end of 2018, but his return to the races last November was strong, snd he ran better than it looks when second-best in the Hollie Hughes; needs the right trip as he cuts back, and may prefer a wet track, but he is far from impossible in here. PAT ON THE BACK was no match in that Commentator while making his first start off the bench; this cut back doesn’t hurt him and he has enough speed to get forward from his rail draw; threat to rebound and may be too good for these if he does.

TENTH RACE

EVERY MINUTE debuted vs. MSW rivals at Belmont and raced very greenly from the start while outrun early, before catching up through the turn, and then going greenly again in the stretch while drifting over to the rail instead of racing on after the leaders; drops and can take a step forward with that experience behind him. DISCIPLANARIAN ran well in each of his first two career starts on turf late October going seven vs. MSW rivals; finally returned to grass at this level last time and was racing on too late behind a pace-pressing winner. BOOM BOOM KABOOM had a bit of trip in his return from the layoff two back, then chased and failed to find enough late vs. MSW rivals last time in a race from which the 2nd and 3rd finishers returned to 1-2 in a similar spot up here last weekend; gets class relief while putting blinkers on.