ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, KATIESDREAMGIRL

FIRST RACE

A new four-day race week starts Thursday with a weather forecast of mostly sunny skies and a high temp near 90, so of course all selections here are made with a premise of turf racing staying ON. A pretty well-matched field presents itself for the noon opener of a 10-race card; will give MORE DIAMONDS a slight edge amid a lineup from which a good half-dozen or so would qualify as no big surprise; top jock Zayas and the turf-to-dirt angle piled atop the decent form makes this NY-bred filly as capable as any. COMMANDING LADY was 2nd as the favorite for this same bottom-level tag in her latest; sneaky rail trip on order with journeyman jock aboard. AUBURN merits consideration, as do a pair of comebackers, IRISH THUNDER and HARTS N FLOWERS.

SECOND RACE

Relying on the special touch Larry Pilotti has long shown with 2yos in tabbing CHOIR BOOTS in this way-wide-open mdn.-$16k dash overflowing with one-timers and beginners; speed-bred chestnut got his early lessons on the farm before posting a few moves over the local course; outer post and a quick getaway puts him in the mix. SAVATIANO is another whose trainer (Spatz) is adept with the babies; tote action would be a helpful clue. DREAMING THOUSAND ran OK first out for a slightly higher and tag and figures as one of the logicals for a high-percent barn.

THIRD RACE

WITCH HUNTER literally has been unbeatable since Barboza took her from Saffie in April, although it’s worth noting that both of her triumphs have come for lower tags than the $12.5k purchase price; up the condition ladder for $6,250 again, she should be able to knock out this N3L before having to dive into the open waters. LA TRES JOLIE can be forgiven for her latest when making a failed foray onto the turf vs. open 3yos; 2 of her last 3 at essentially this same level over the main were solid. BLOSSOM BOW was the beaten fave behind the top pick in the key June 20 matchup; has revenge on her mind after the latest confidence-builder.

FOURTH RACE

A couple of double-digit uglies from last winter precede this, and yet DON’T EATTHE APPLE stands to reverse that trend when dropping in for this low-level tag after taking nearly 5 months of Ralph regrouping; anything close to those first 2 career starts makes her tough here. CABRINA has been 2nd/3rd/4th in 4 of 5 starts and has been favored in 3 of 5; if ‘overdue’ applies in racing (hint: it almost always does not), well, she’s your gal. GASPARILLA BLAST comes well-drawn in the outer box when debuting for a top barn (Fawkes).

FIFTH RACE

Pounded down to even-money in her debut last month, KATIESDREAMGIRL was something of a disappointment as a distant runner-up; should make amends, however, in a big way today when loading-n-going from the open-air outer box with that valuable experience behind her; another live one for Ralph, and this one as the day’s best. DARK BLUE FLAME seemed to run pretty well (despite the single-digit Beyer) in her debut 3 weeks ago for the flyin-high Hamm barn; expectations of improvement are reasonable. PRETTY RACHEL debuts for Saffie, whose numbers with first-timing mdn.-claimers are far above average.

SIXTH RACE

Beyer-wise and race-shape-wise, SHARM EL SHEIKH sure seems to bring a sizable edge to this hybrid starter for turf routers; careful rating from Zayas should have this one in command down the backside before they let out another notch or two. MY POINT EXACTLY hasn’t won since early in the championship meet but nonetheless seems