ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, SURSUM CORDA

FIRST RACE

DASH TO THE TOP is by top debut sire Violence, who wins with 20% of his juvenile first time starters, and ships in to make her debut for a trainer who is capable right out of the box - Catalano, past five years, 2yo, first time starter, sprint: 14%, $1.94 ROI. PAZZION a NY-bred foregoing his lucrative state-bred conditions to debut for $50k, but does so for Pletcher - 2yo, first time starter, maiden claiming, dirt, sprint: 5 for his last 21, 24%, $2.72 ROI; sire Mission Impazible connects with 13% of his juvenile first time starters. STYLISH RAGS is the first foal out of a dam (0-5 in her career) who is a sister to Grade 3-winning dirt sprinter Sacristy; Ward 5 for his last 10 with 2yos debuting for a claiming tag in a dirt sprint ($2.54 ROI).

SECOND RACE

O SHEA CAN U SEE was up against dynamics is each if his first two starts off the claim for Linda Rice, and he was compromised once again last time when trying to rally on a track that seemed to be kind to speed, though he did get to save ground in that race; back to the level of the claim and there does appear to be enough speed in here to give him a fair chance. GETOFFMYBACK is one of those speeds, and he is looking for three in a row at this level; tough if he can hold his form and he got the best of the draw on the outside. BRUSH COUNTRY ran well up here last summer, including a win with a 77 Beyer while catching a quick pace to run at going seven furlongs; not an easy spot for his first start off the layoff but he earned a new top figure when last seen and goes off the claim for an excellent trainer.

THIRD RACE

SURSUM CORDA will need a trip in order to break through as she stretches out again, but she has run well in her two most recent starts and she does not face the strongest field in the world for her NY debut; dangerous if just holding her current form. SENGEKONTACKET made her turf debut last time and improved in that spot while giving up the inside coming to the stretch, a spot that was immediately taken by eventual winner Lovely Lucky, who returned to crush allowance rivals with a 92 Beyer up here last week, also while stretching out to this distance; dam has dropped five turf winners so far, including a half-sister who was a stakes winner over this distance. PRAIRIE WINGS has settled for second-best in all three starts to date on dirt, though she was unlucky two starts back when getting blocked in the stretch; Tapit filly will try to stretch out on turf and she has enough pedigree to handle it, being from the female family of the great Giants Causeway.

FOURTH RACE

LADY T N T broke her maiden convincingly over this track as a 2yo while racing for purse money only and improved from there to hold her own in stakes races as a 3yo, before winning a Grade 3 in her final starts of 2019; returned from the layoff last month in a very tough spot and was done in by a very fast pace in that race. LIZA STAR has been an excellent claim for these connections, winning her first four starts while steadily moving up in class, and taking three more since then; speedy mare will have some company up front in this spot but this is her distance and she arrives in form. WHAT A FOX rallied into a contested pace to get 3rd in a stakes race two starts back then got in over her head when last seen; won four of her first five off the claim for Diodoro before heading into those stakes races and is versatile enough to make use of her rail draw in this spot.

FIFTH RACE

IMINCOMUNICADO made her career debut over course and distance last summer as a 2yo and finished a solid 4th vs. better after getting outrun

early; back to turf for her second start as a 3yo with blinkers on and she is getting significant class relief for this. SILENT EMPRESS debuts for a hot trainer/rider combo and she has the pedigree to be successful in this kind of race, being out of a dam whose three career wins all came sprinting on turf, also for Clement; won’t have to be much to be competitive here. DEVILS RENDEZVOUS ran pretty well while debuting over a sloppy track up here last summer, then tried to stretch out on turf in her second start, where she gave way vs. a much better field; returned at this level off the layoff and raced wide before getting into contention and then weakening late.

SIXTH RACE

ZEALOUS took a while to break through but went back to back when he finally did last year, with the second of those wins coming up here over this distance while returning from a nearly identical layoff; taking the right drop for this. JEROME AVENUE has struggled to win races while moving around from turf to dirt and trying different distances looking for his best game; turns back for this after taking over and just failing to last going long in the first race of the meet. EMPIRE LINE appeared to have plenty of potential early on but things didn’t break his way and he has now wound up enduring a pair of extended layoffs; came back from nearly a full year on the sidelines last month and finished a game 2n after chasing wide from the start.

SEVENTH RACE

ME AND MR. C has been solid from the start while often running much better than it looks on paper, and he is versatile, as well, which should offer Davis some options in a race that does not have a ton of pace signed on; drops to a more logical spot for a dangerous trainer. BLANKET OF ROSES has run twice for a tag so far and he won both of those races convincingly while closing into fast paces; may not have that kind of setup here but he is a nice fit here as he drops out of a strong allowance race at Churchill following a short break. DYNADRIVE had to come wide and finished gamely to just miss two back, then dropped to this level and won easily in a race that was rained off the grass; Maker has been winning races up here so far and this gelding appears to be more tactical than his stablemate.

EIGHTH RACE

RUVIES IN TIME took a noticeable step forward when winning her 3yo debut off the layoff last April, and was unfortunately forced back to the sidelines shortly thereafter; making her third start back now after taking a game run at a good winner on the lead last time, and only weakening late. JEWEL OF ARABIA ran well twice up here last year as a 2yo, and she returned with a pair of solid efforts in her first two starts of 2020, including an easy win maiden win last time despite drifting through the stretch; the horse to beat. BUSTIN

SCONES seems unlikely to ever get back to that 75 Beyer she earned off the layoff last September, but she has held her form pretty well since then and has hit the board in three of her four starts this year; needs a trip but expect her to be running late.

NINTH RACE

KARAK finished behind a couple of these same rivals when 3rd in the Stewart Manor last November at Aqueduct, but she may have run the best race that day while going after a fast pace while three-wide on the turn and then dueling down the talented Lucrezia in the stretch, before the closers came to take over; back to turf for the first time since then after running well in her first two starts of 2020 on different surfaces. nd MISS J MCKAY was an excellent turf sprinter as a 2yo, finishing first in all three starts to begin her career, including two stakes, and then finishing a good 2nd in that Stewart Manor after making an earlier move than the eventual winner; wasn’t sharp in the Lady Shipman last time but is a threat to rebound second off the layoff. SHIPPY got unlucky in her lone turf start to date two starts back at Gulfstream, as she was too late to come clear and then finished fast to just miss; a repeat of that effort won’t do vs. this field but she has plenty of ability and deserves another chance on this surface.

TENTH RACE

OCEAN FIRE kept coming up short while running well in the MSW ranks as a 3yo, including a good effort up here on Travers Day; finally broke through last time when going right to the lead, but she doesn’t need that trip to be effective and may have her mind more on business now that she has gotten there first. COME STORMING has improved with each start so far and she held her own vs. a good field two starts back while making her NY debut, before dropping and dominating maiden claimers on the lead last time; faces a more challenging pace scenario this time but she has run well from off the pace, as well. COREY SCORES spent the early part of her career sprinting without impressing, though she did finally break her maiden when dropped in class last October; has improved going longer in her last two starts and exits a very unlucky loss off the layoff last time when coming clear too late.