ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, ARCELOR

FIRST RACE

GAME ON GIRL is the first starter out of a dam who was winless in eight starts but sire Kantharos, who wins at a solid 19% with his firsters, won his own debut as a 2-year-old, and this filly debuts for a barn that’s solid with juveniles; lures leading jockey Paco Lopez, who is winning at a 50% rate when teamed with trainer Jorge Duarte Jr. PINK SHOELACES is out of an unraced dam and Brown Lace’s first starter but Haskell winner Paynter does well enough with his firsters (12%) and this filly has a couple of works that hint at speed; barn also represented here by TWIN BRIDGES. MISS PARFAIT is one of only two in this opener with racing experience (INERTIA) and she lost her best chance at the start in that debut, as she didn’t break all that sharply; dam won three races, all dirt sprints.

SECOND RACE

POSTINO’S SECRET comes off a strong effort in defeat at Charles Town, where she closed with interest to just miss in a solid effort; she didn’t have much luck in prior tries at Monmouth but she does seem to be much improved in 2020, and given an honest pace up front perhaps she can make the last run. PERSPICACIOUS is the one to beat despite the layoff, as she has the best Beyers in the field and Paco Lopez rides, but she could be overbet for the same reasons despite the fact that her first try off the layoff last year was her worst 2019 effort in terms of Beyers; clearly capable but perhaps not the right value. STAY SMART has the rail and some speed and figures to be put in the game early by jockey Joe Bravo; sharp works for this return, always a good sign for runners from trainer Kelly Breen.

THIRD RACE

LOVELY BROWN could be overlooked some today if she is able to scratch in off the AE list, as her Beyers are a little light compared with the top contenders in this field, but she fits the race flow nicely as a closer given the presence of several speeds to her inside; working steadily toward her first start sine January. TEMPERANCE has speed

but can also rate, as she did in her maiden win three back; she didn’t have the easiest of trips in her two losses since and the steady Beyers she posted there make her easy to like. STONEY’S

MONKEY was off the board in her first start vs. winners but she ran well in defeat, closing some ground late, and the resulting figure gives her strong credibility with this group; should benefit from the expected race flow today.

FOURTH RACE

ORPHEUS was no threat in his seasonal debut last time but he had little chance in that paceless event, which featured a two-speed exacta keyed by the favorite; his back figures are much better than that and he has license to run to them given an improved race flow and on this clear drop in class. CHIEF KNOW IT ALL has some of the better Beyers in the field and he comes out of a race against open claimers at Belmont; barn looking for first win of 2020 but this gelding is perhaps the one to beat wit the right trip. REFUSEING ran 2nd in each of his last two at Parx, against open claimers and vs. starter allowance company, and he should make his presence felt in the lane given a contested pace up front.

FIFTH RACE

MARKSMAN proved no threat in his first start of 2020 but it could well be he needed that race off the eight month layoff; the relative lack of pace in that field did him no favors but he should be expected to take a step forward today with that one under his belt and given a quicker, perhaps contested pace up front this afternoon. FLOWMOTION is obviously going to be tough right back after beating similar in his latest despite breaking from post 11 in a 12 horse field, using his tactical speed to his best advantage; does figure to be overbet, however, and he could does seem at his best at a flat mile as opposed to this 1 1/16 mile distance. BELGRANO was only a length behind FLOWMOTION in that last one and he may be one who improves with a little more ground; positional speed should mean he’s well spotted just off the leaders once again.

SIXTH RACE

ARCELOR makes her first start off the claim for trainer Kelly Breen, who wins at 19% with such runners, and though she was a beaten favorite in that last one she ran a solid race for the place in a race that came up fast for the class and distance; big Beyer edge makes her very tough to go past despite the expected short price. LITTLEMISSBUSINESS loves to win, and she comes out of races against better at Parx; she has some early zip, too, and that could enable her to get the jump on the favorite. PRANK CALL has steady figures and some tactical speed of her own; figures to be prominent from the start, an edge if the pace is controlled.