ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, PHARAOH’S FASHION

FIRST RACE

Ugh. Not much to the Monday lid-lifter. SNAGGLETOOTH was facing much better horses than this at Oaklawn earlier this year, and he has older form that could easily win this. The recent steady work pattern encourages. KITCHEN POLICE off since February but we can see he runs well fresh. Lively local drill to sharpen. MIDNIGHT GAMES is even money on the morning line, which feels about right, but here we have a horse claimed for 2.5X this price in November and who ran competitively in a $5K starter race coming back from a layoff last out. Of course the chances exists connections are just dropping to earn an easy purse, but there too many negative indicators for me to bite at oddson.

SECOND RACE

COLD HEARTED WENCH finished pretty well into a slow pace when getting back on turf, apparently her preferred surface, last out at IND. She has a touch of upside and the added half-furlong should help. NOSTALGIA faced $16K maidens last two at TAM and purportedly moves up in class now, but is this an especially solid $25K maiden? Finished solidly both those recent starts and appears to have improved. ZOYSIA is listed as the solid favorite on the line, which seems reasonable, but doesn’t appear to have a meaningful edge over at least a couple rivals.

THIRD RACE

NOTACATBUTACARD was claimed by these connections long ago for his $10K tag and remains a snug fit at the level. He can handle seven furlongs and the guess is he’s plenty ready for comeback race despite the light work pattern. THE GREAT SAMURAI might prefer 6 1/2 furlongs to 7 but fits this spot as well as anybody for a sharp claiming outfit. WINKING AT THEDUDE is on a seemingly negative drop but the owner might want to make a run at leading the CNL standings this season. BRIDGET’S BIG LUVY also a contender but seems at least a little suspect at the distance.

FOURTH RACE

FEELING MISCHIEF debuts with a couple snappy works and has the pedigree to win early. Sire Into Mischief is excellent with young horses and the dam, a sharp 2-year-old, won her career debut. SOME NIGHTS is by a strong turf sire but appeared to run her best race two back on dirt. If she could make a clear lead one suspects she can take the field a long way. INDIAN HEART debuts for barn that often brings young horses along slowly and turf could be the not-too-distant goal here.

FIFTH RACE

TANDA’S JOY ran a strong race two back firs off claim and back from a layoff, and perhaps the entry for a higher $25K tag last out was meant as a bridge to this class drop. A class drop, yes, but still above the last claim price paid. O. K. KAY drops off a win and a layoff and has raced at higher class levels throughout her career. No thanks for play on top at the short price. THUMP wasn’t very good in her most recent turf try but there’s older, better form - and only five other horses in this race.

SIXTH RACE

ZIP LINE TO HEAVEN didn’t run badly last out in the turf debut, though he didn’t run especially well, either. We do note he’s been kept out of the maiden-claiming ranks, possibly with this move into VA-restricted MSW competition in mind. The dam, for what it’s worth, was a two-time turfsprint-stakes winner over the local lawn. DREAMING OF CARATS wouldn’t need to improve much, if at all, over the last-start LRL turf-sprint showing to contend. Respect the barn. LYNCHBURG, from same trainer as top pick, is bred to like the first trip on turf.

SEVENTH RACE

PASS IT ON would have to do much better than the July 27 start at Parx, but that was the first turf race in a long time, and grass is what this horse

needs for her best. Both her CNL performance last summer look good enough to contend at a price in a spot seemingly ripe for an upset. LOST SCROLL hooked and cooked last out at LRL but has shown rate-ability in the past and run competitively in conditioned turf claimers for a higher tag than this. FLOWZANO is 3-1 on the line, which seems reasonable, and is going to take betting action she might not deserve. Questions here of her baseline quality and stamina.

EIGHTH RACE

PHARAOH’S FASHION debuts with a series of at least mildly encouraging drills and is an appealing play at anything close to the listed odds. By a young, obscure sire by Pioneerof the Nile, whose offspring often prefer grass, and out of a dam who produced turf stakes-winner Dressed in Hermes as well as the lesser known Bet on Red. That horse, from this same trainer, won nicely on the CNL turf course last summer. JIM’S BRONZE STAR has run well enough in all four starts to win this maiden turf dash. Concerns - the lack of obvious improvement, the wide draw, the likely price. LARIMAR is no sure thing to love the lawn though he looks talented enough and the barn is strong with long layoffs.

NINTH RACE

GALWAY EMPIRE, if the fractions are to be believed, dueled through a 22-and-change opening quarter mile, ruining any chance he might’ve had in his lone turf start. Down to lowest level with an encouraging work pattern for new, winning outfit. BACK CHARGE flattened out discouragingly last time after a favorable trip as the even-money favorite. Cut back from routes to a sprint and maybe the rhythm of the short race disagreed with him. Back to route and down to lowest level, but mildly skeptical. 25-race maiden YES MEANS NO has so far only answered “no” while often racing competitively in similar spots.