ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, HIEROGLYPHICS

FIRST RACE

DOSWELL is an imperfect top pick, coming in as a 5yo maiden off a long layoff and having finished 2nd in all four turf starts to date (at short prices in all three turf starts over here); he has also faced much better horses in those races and has run well in all of them; might get him at a better price this time as he exits the Chad Brown barn for his 2020 debut. BAY STREET MONEY benefitted from his debut over yielding ground, where he improved his position throughout after being rated early to finish a no-threat 5th, and he took a step forward last time while rallying gamely for 2nd behind a winning favorite; lasix on and a big threat if improving one more time. THE ANGRY MAN has a turf pedigree, so it was no surprise to find him improving when finally switched over for his second as a 3yo; can move forward but there is a lot going on in this race, which is tougher than that last one.

SECOND RACE

The distance is the main question in front of CREATIVE STYLE in this spot - he was entered in that 7/18 race that a couple of these exit but was scratched after falling in the paddock (was 7/2 at the time) - but his recent form has been quite good while winning two of his last four, and he was close to a quick pace going 8.5 furlongs two back, before staying on gamely to overpower that field late. LIL COMMISSIONER is part of an entry for Rob Atras but only one will run with Franco named on both halves; much prefer this horse of the two, as he has won three of his last five on dirt and exits a dominant win for $20k last time, where he kept up with the pace before putting away next-out winner Walkoff with a new top Beyer. HAMMERIN AAMER was outfinished by both SHALAKO and MUSICAL HEART in that 7/18 affair but that was a closers race and HAMMERIN AAMER kept up close before going early to challenge while they sat it out; don’t trust him but he ran as well as either of those two rivals last time.

THIRD RACE

LIGHT IN THE SKY won his first turf start up here as a 2yo over a good field and she has returned this year to run well in both races while settling for 2nd each time; needs a trip as a closing-type but she towers over these horses on form. AVA K’S GIRL has made it pretty clear now that she doesn’t want to go long, but her two turf sprints are both pretty good and she appears to have the best chance to go with the likely favorite; also broke her maiden over course and distance as a 2yo and she was gaining ground behind LIGHT IN THE SKY off the layoff two back. MZ SEB PAT is just 1 for 10 0n turf so far, with the lone win coming vs. maiden claimers last year, but she ran pretty well last time to get 4th, while no match for LIGHT IN THE SKY.

FOURTH RACE

HIEROGLYPHICS was a stakes winner over this inner turf course going this distance a few years ago and he has held his form pretty well since then, including a pair of good efforts in NY late last year where he got the better of SIDING SPRING; drops slightly for Maker after getting buried in traffic when last seen at Gulfstream. SIDING SPRING owns good speed from an inside draw and he, too, has run well over this inner turf course in the past, including an excellent effort last summer when forced to go a fast pace and just giving in late; made his first start for Morley off the claim last time and got involved in another heated pace

battle n a race that went to closers; dangerous if he can shake free early this time. GOLDEN SPEAR a closer who would benefit from some pace as he makes his second start off the layoff for an underrated trainer; won up here last summer for this tag after being given a perfect trip by Irad.

FIFTH RACE

BOTTLE ROCKET MAN a $350k yearling by hot sire Into Mischief and out of a mare who is a sister to Woody Stephens and Tom Fool winner Munnings; appears to be training strongly for Chad Brown, who sent out an impressive 2yo debut winner here last weekend. SHACKLEFORD STRONG ships up from Kentucky to debut on Travers Day for Asmussen, who also trains her full-sister, Honey I’m Good, a debut winner by over 13 lengths a couple of years ago and more recently a stakes winner sprinting on dirt; Asmussen has a good record debuting 2yos in MSW dirt sprints up here - 8 for his last 25, 32%, $4.21 ROI, including a winner last Sunday. AMERICAN GENTLEMAN debuted on turf early in the meet and veered out sharply at the start before chasing to no avail; trainer has sent out some live 2yos up here already and this colt is a half-brother to Grade 1 dirt winner Connect. MUTASAABEQ another expensive Into Mischief colt who appears to be training strongly up to his debut; Pletcher off to a good start up here and still more than capable with horses like this.

SIXTH RACE

INCITATUS debuted sprinting over yielding ground at Keeneland last month and just rode the rail from off the pace, before racing on some late without threat; bred to stretch out, being a half to multiple Grade 3-winning turf router Gentle Ruler, who is also trained by Wilkes. FIRE AT WILL a firster by Declaration of War and he is the first foal from his dam, who is a sister to top 3yo turfer Decorated Invader; tough post, and Maker doesn’t have a strong record first time out, though he is running hot right not, especially on turf. PIVOTAL MISSION debuted over course and distance earlier in the meet from a tough outside post and finished a no-threat 6th after getting spun out wide coming to the stretch; don’t love the race he debuted in but his experience gives him an edge and moving inside helps.

SEVENTH RACE

LETRUSKA may have to find another way to do it as she cuts back for the Ballerina after showing good speed and easily handling next-out stakes winner Nonna Madeline over a mile last time; wanted a new face to this group and she has been in good form since arriving undefeated from Mexico. SERENGETI EMPRESS is going to use her speed from the rail as she turns back for the first time since running a bang-up 2nd in the Test last summer; has often disappointed since then, and her last two races aren’t close to her best, but she is always dangerous with her speed. BELLAFINA another with ample talent but one who is not averse to disappointing in big spots, especially when she ships; ran fine last time with a bit of a trip, but that wasn’t a fast race and she had a perfect trip in winning the Desert Stormer two back and earned a 92. COME DANCING another logical contender looking to defend her Ballerina title, but she exits a disappointing effort in the Vagrancy and has now Beyered 82-76-82 in her last three starts.

EIGHTH RACE

Understand why the connections of IMPRIMIS took a shot at Ascot last summer following two impressive wins to kick off that campaign, but the trip did appear to take something away from him upon his return, both that he ran terribly in any of his last three starts of 2019; think the freshening may have done him some good and he is tough in here if showing up with his best. PURE SENSATION remains capable at this level as a 9yo and this shorter distance works to his advantage as he drops out of a disappointing effort in the Grade 1 Jaipur; hasn’t won a race in NY since the end of 2016 but he is as fast as ever on figures and there is an argument to be made that he is too good for these horses, even now. LONHTWIST seems an unlikely winner of a race like this but he is better than he looks on paper and will be a big price once again; can get a piece.

NINTH RACE

MRS. SIPPY returning from a long layoff here going 12 furlongs but she has been ready for a while, having been entered in NY at least once this summer, and more recently scratching from a Delaware Grade 3 that was rained off the turf; looked good winning the Glens Falls in her stateside debut here last summer with a perfect trip from Rosario, and she backed that effort up strongly when second-best to Sistercharlie in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. MY SISTER NAT finished close together for the leftovers with MRS. SIPPY in Frace as a 3yo then took a while to acclimate to racing over here; has seemed to really improve with distance in her last two, and may have been best two back with a tougher trip than the winner. FOOLS GOLD won this race last year with a perfect trip at a time when she was in the best form of her career; looking to bounce back after proving to be no match in the New York off the layoff.

TENTH RACE

GAMINE is facing a talented group of fillies in the Test but she is still likely to be the heaviest favorite on the card after winning her first three starts (was disqualified from one) impressively, including that fast blowout of the Acorn when last seen; hard to stand against her as she cuts back a furlong, even against fillies of this quality. MRS. DANVERS hasn’t accomplished as much as any of the other five fillies in this field but she has shown talent from day one and rates the benefit of the doubt after failing to break sharply and then not being rushed last time over a track that may have favored the inside; can pick up the running late if some of the others get involved with the favorite up front. VENETIAN HARBOR has a lot of speed and a lot of talent, and cutting back out of three straight twoturn races is to her benefit in this spot, as is the outside draw; gave up pretty tamely to Speech last time, after giving Swiss Skydiver more of a fight two back; doesn’t get any easier here.

ELEVENTH RACE

MAX PLAYER has his work cut out for him in the face of TIZ THE LAW and UNCLE CHUCK, among others, but he ran fine in the Belmont last time off the bench and he has shown ability right along in his own right, despite not being nearly as brilliant as the favorites; if nothing else, he wants distance, and the pace of this race could work to his favor. TIZ THE LAW already a three-time Grade 1 winner and he is fastest on the way in as he tries 10 furlongs for the first time; commands respect and is the horse to beat, though do think this is going to be tougher than the Belmont. UNCLE CHUCK is all raw ability and looks like he wants every part of this distance after stretching away from stablemate Thousand Words in the Los Al Derby last time (Thousand Words returned to defeat top 3yo Honor A. P. with a 104 Beyer last weekend); Baffert ships in with a purpose and he may have the goods with this hulking Uncle Mo colt.

TWELFTH RACE

BANKERS BEAST debuted sprinting on turf and was never a real threat while racing on gamely vs. a good field in a pace-dominated race; don’t mind her switching to dirt at all with her pedigree. BLITCHTON LADY was nowhere vs. a good field on turf first time out; ran better last time despite looking green over a very wet track. SWEET SNEAK has shown little in three starts vs. open company so far, two of those going long on turf; faces NY-breds for the first time while making her 3yo debut and she is not going to find a weaker race for the level than this one.