ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, CRITICAL VALUE

FIRST RACE

DEEP SEA is going to have to get back on one of his faster races if he is to go back to back in this spot, but he does have those figures in his past and his form since being re-claimed by Rudy has been solid; he finished a game 2nd from out of it vs. better at Churchill off the layoff, then had a trip when shuffled back at a crucial point in his next start, before getting on top of that pace last time and prevailing; can land the right trip here if STONEY BENNETT gets hooked up on the pace with the speedy MALPAIS. STONEY BENNETT obviously has issues but he just seems to run every time, no matter the circumstances; returned from a long layoff last time with a solid effort while taking pressure over that wet track and staying gamely down into deep stretch before succumbing; dangerous dropping all the way down for his second start back. MALPAIS had an excuse last time when stumbling at the start vs. a tougher group, though he did no running thereafter; concerned about his recent form, and he will likely have to race STONEY BENNETT early this time, but he’s clearly tough with one of his good races as he cuts in half.

SECOND RACE

SEASONS appears to be training well for her excellent trainer and she has the pedigree to be a runner being a full to three-time turf winner (including her debut) and multiple Grade 3-placed Winter Sunset, from a dam who won two Grade 1s for Toner several years ago - Winer Memories was also a debut winner at Saratoga. MISSPELL a firster by American Pharoah debuting for an everdangerous trainer following a series of breezes that date back to the middle of May; chestnut filly is the first foal to race from this dam, who is from a strong Juddmonte family that traces back to top horses like Empire Maker, Honest Lady, and Grade 1 turf winners Chester House and Chiseling. FRANKEL AT ASCOT debuted sprinting at Belmont and went evenly in the stretch to finish 3rd after a good trip; bred to stretch out and has drawn a perfect post on the inside.

THIRD RACE

CRITICAL VALUE ran well twice up here as a 2yo then stretched out to win the Maid of the Mist easily, before giving a good account of herself over this distance in the Grade 2 Demoiselle in her final start of the year; returned from the layoff to blow away her rivals in the Bouwerie with a new top figure while appearing to take a significant step forward. SAY MOI made a promising debut when second-best to the talented Center Aisle and came right back to deliver a clear-cut maiden win in her next start while essentially matching her first-out figure; stretched out last time and acquitted herself well despite proving to be no match for stakes-bound Spice Is Nice (95 Beyer). SMOOTH WITH A KICK goes turf to dirt for her second start off the layoff after failing to improve on that surface in her two most recent starts; can get the distance and has run a couple of races that make her tough in here, but she has underachieved overall.

FOURTH RACE

UNION GABLES may be bumping into a hot firster in FOUETTE in this spot but there are things to like about this filly, as well. By Speightstown, she is the first foal from Tonasah, a debut winner sprinting who went on to place in the Adirondack and the Marton as a 2yo; Tonasah is also a sister to the fleet graded stakes-winning sprinter Quantum Miss (5 for 8 lifetime, 104 Beyer top); Gullo 6 for his last 34 with 2yo first time starters in dirt sprints (18%, $4.48 ROI). FOUETTE a $400k yearling by new sire Nyquist debuting for Asmussen, who has a strong record with horses like this up here, and who saddled a 2yo filly to win her debut last weekend in Lady Lilly (also by Nyquist); appears to be training forwardly into

this. JOQULAR debuts for a trainer who doesn’t often crank them up, but she has a nice pedigree being from the female family of crack dirt sprinters Dubai Escapade (second dam) and Madcap Escapade.

FIFTH RACE

L’INDISCRET looked like a filly in need of some experience in her debut at Gulfstream where she was rated in and among horses early, ultimately losing position into the turn and winding up last, before racing on late; not sure the cut back was a good thing for her last time, but she improved in that spot while once again finishing with some interest and coming up just short of a placing; stretches back out. Not sure how short of a price I would want on WINDFALL PROFIT, but she seems like the horse to beta following two recent efforts for Shug; was probably best two back when making an early move to contention and then just getting outfinishing by a rail-skimming winner, and she ran fine last time to just miss again after having to rally along the rail - though that may not have been a very good race overall. BASTET would have been my top pick if I didn’t go back to L’INDISCRET. This filly ran well last time when rated away from a fast pace on the cut back, and her debut was useful while setting a solid pace going long; plenty to like but she hasn’t finished strong either time.

SIXTH RACE

SECONDARY MARKET debuted up here last summer as a 2yo and ran a deceptively good race while in traffic at the back early and ultimately having no choice but to send around wide to the stretch with little chance to catch; improved in her second start with a better trip and earned a figure as a juvenile that makes her tough here if she is ready to build upon it right away. POP A CHOC made her first two starts in turf to no avail but she looked like a different horse when switched to dirt last time, showing good speed and then settling that race quickly when asked in the stretch; tough right back if that effort was for real. HENRYS DEAL debuted over a wet track at Lone Star and was a clear-cut winner despite breaking slowly from the gate; facing tougher here but he can run a little base on that evidence; trainer is struggling up here so far. I’m not against likely favorite TIMELY TRADITION, a 10-time winner coming in here off the three best races off her career, but will take the upside horses.

SEVENTH RACE

In a race where the shorter prices just don’t do much for me, I’ll try TEMPERANCE here hoping she can use her speed on the cut back to get the right trip; I don’t love herm but she’s going to be a price in here and the shorter prices just may not be very good. AUNT NADINE dropped to this level last time to make her turf debut and she ran fine in there to prevail for 2nd with a competitive figure; I didn’t love that race overall but she was closed down by a class dropping favorite late. MO ME MO MY is taking significant (and needed) class relief for this after running a poor race in her NY debut last time while chasing a modest pace; fits on figures and the class relief helps.

EIGHTH RACE

VENEZUELAN HUG may be up against it in a race that lacks for early speed but this colt improved significantly for Gargan in Florida and gets the right drop after proving to be no match for Decorated Invader last time; has overcome slow paces in the past and Saez can save ground from his inside draw. CITY MAN is a stakes-winner on dirt but he has run quite well in both turf starts to date, while facing better each time; a little worried that nine furlongs may be pushing it a bit but a repeat of his effort in the Transylvania last time will make him tough in here. SHAMROCKET was run over by VENEZUELAN HUG at Gulfstream in April but he has improved in his two starts since then, closing strongly into a good pace to break his maiden going longer two back, then rallying gamely last time to fall just short of heavily favored No Word.

NINTH RACE

There is an argument to be made that ENDORSED is better going a bit shorter than this, but he has actually run some strong races around two turns and the class relief he is getting in the Alydar is significant; he is not a slow horse early, but there should be a solid pace setup in front of him here. The mercurial BODEXPRESS is a dangerous speed horse when he behaves himself, which happens infrequently these days - was force to scratch at last month at Monmouth due to his bad behavior; faster than the only other speed in the race and a real threat to wire this field if on his game. TENFOLD came a long way in a short time as a 3yo, finishing a close 3rd in the Preakness in just his fourth career starts, and winning the Jim Dandy over course and distance two starts later, but it has been a struggle for him since then with a lack of early speed often putting him up against it; getting class relief for this but needs a trip.

TENTH RACE

PIER FORTY has already had 13 chances without breaking through, but this will be his first start vs. maiden claimers on dirt and he is supposed to be tough in here as he goes turf to dirt and turns back making his second start off the long layoff; has earned three Beyers in the 70s on dirt, a level that none of his rivals have come all that close to. BOSTON BILLY will have to improve to be competitive here but he is eligible to do so after only two starts and he ran a little in both of those races; interesting shipping in for an underrated trainer. BANK GALA at least has one race that puts him close to the likely favorite, that coming back in March while in improved form for a different trainer; has not run as well in his three most recent start but is clearly a solid fit in this race.