ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SYNCHRONY

FIRST RACE

First post is 12:50 ET. IF NOT NOW finished ahead of three of these in his career debut here last month and goes out for a barn that is 5 for 10 (50%, $3.78 ROI) over the past four years with older (3-year-olds and upward) second-out turf routers in maiden claiming races. Benefited from a fitness standpoint from that race and should be right there with normal improvement. BIG PERM looks set for best effort in third start of the form cycle after finishing just behind the top pick in turf debut. Worked hard that third quarter pushing the winner’s quickening pace before understandably tiring late. FEISTY KITTEN ran pretty well against winners considering there wasn’t much pace for him to attack late. Needs help up front, but should appreciate today’s class relief.

SECOND RACE

GROOVY TALE needed a couple of starts before reaching the winner’s circle here last year and will attempt to repeat that pattern in third start of the form cycle with good early speed. No real excuse last time out as he controlled a moderate pace, but have a feeling the winner of that race, Delaware invader Smithwicks Spice, is a promising New Jersey-bred. Shouldn’t be too far away when the real racing begins. GREEN GRATTO won the Grade 1 Carter Handicap in 2017 and returns from an 843-day layoff as a new gelding after an aborted stud career. On his best day, he would simply be too quick for these, but who knows what we’ll get off this protracted layoff? The last time LOVE IS YOUR NAME moved from route to sprint, he ran away and hid in gate-to-wire fashion. The pace might be a bit stronger in this spot, but he gave it a good go against open foes in his first start of the year (a race won by favored Growth Engine) and is a snug fit at this class level.

THIRD RACE

CONFUSION BABY BOY was running late in a $25,000 seller won by favored Miami Crockett and seems well-spotted as the first starter saddled by ex-jockey Elvis Trujillo (668 lifetime wins at Monmouth including the Grade 1 United Nations with Presious Passion). Originally conditioned by Trujillo’s uncle, Jose Corrales, Confusion Baby Boy has the tactical speed to sit closer to the pace this afternoon. RED MULE might be a bit dressed up at a short price as he received a picture-perfect trip to graduate at Gulfstream for the controversial Jorge Navarro. Sat a dream spot saving ground behind a three-ply pace battle and shot up an opening on the hedge without a straw in his path. Ran on a bit in recent off-the-turf outing at Laurel. LAWYER ROY drops precipitously in class and distance after being overmatched in recent “two-other-than” at Parx. He pushed the winner’s pace before faltering and deserves an opportunity at this level.

FOURTH RACE

FIRE’S FINALE, a son of three-time stakes-winning dirt router Exchanging Fire, adds Lasix in first start for the red-hot Kelly Breen barn after racing a bit greenly in career debut at Gulfstream. Perhaps that experience will give him a leg-up on some of the first-time starters he’ll face this afternoon. IT CAN BE DONE is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning synthetic router Stand and Salute (stakes-placed sprinting on dirt in his first lifetime start). Plenty of speed in this family as another half-sister, Huntress Helena, was the queen of the two-furlong sprint races at Mountaineer a few

years ago. HEIR PORT is a half-brother to stakesplaced dirt sprinter Dial Operator (99 Beyer top) and attracts Lopez for his debut. TIMED OUT is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Point of Reference (eight sprint wins, $328K in earnings).

FIFTH RACE

SPIKES SHIRL was claimed by Maryland’s leading trainer following good-looking return to turf here last month. He battled early with Pool Winner, a ten-time winner with plenty of back class, repelled that foe turning for home and gamely held off Duncastle’s late bid. Expect him to get right up close to the pace once again. PAGLIACCI was steadied a bit early in recent Delaware sprint, swung widest turning into the stretch and was making up some late ground after failing to switch leads. Rock-solid from a Beyer Speed Figure perspective, but needs pace and race luck as a one-run closer from the back. SNOWDAY was thrown to the Wolf Hill Stakes in his first start off a February layoff and gained fitness after tracking the speedy American Sailor (entered in Saturday’s Troy Stakes at Saratoga). Finished ahead of nextout 89-Beyer winner Dubini (optional claimer at Parx, won the Laurel Dash last year) in that race and should be a strong pace presence here.

SIXTH RACE

Think PSYCHIC ABILITY faced two very promising babies in Flight to Shanghai and Takingtimeoff in her career debut over sloppy track and now gets Lasix while dropping out of the special weight ranks. Greg Sacco does good work with 2-yearolds and wouldn’t be surprised if this horse is a bit better from the gate this time around. EMPIRES FIRST LADY goes out for trainer-jockey combination that sent out juvenile debut winner Windy Nations (also by Soaring Empire) at 33 to 1 odds in a maiden claimer here on August 1. MISS WILD, by first-crop sire Mshawish, shows some quick drills for career debut and the dam won a couple of sprint races for this outfit. TIZ HERSELF’s dam was multiple stakes-placed on turf and she has already foaled juvenile Grade 3-placed dirt performer Sweet Candy Dance.

SEVENTH RACE

FLOWMOTION and BELGRANO ran one-two in quick starter handicap here on the Fourth of July and have been given plenty of time to recover from that race. The former is in excellent form with three wins from his last four starts and his good tactical speed allows him to adapt to any pace scenario. Belgrano worked out a nice pace-tracking, ground-saving trip before just falling short to the top pick in first race over the circuit. Last two turf Beyers put him squarely in the mix. PUGILIST showed big speed in a starter stakes race at Gulfstream on February 17 and just missed to Bareeqa, who returned to win a starter-optional with an 84 Beyer. Figures up close to the pace once again. TRAFFIC PATTERN would be no surprise after winning his career debut in New York for Chad Brown. The runner-up from that race returned to be nosed out against maiden special company at Saratoga with an 80 Beyer.

EIGHTH RACE

CLASS FACTOR showed improved speed in second start following long layoff and did a good amount of work chasing favored New York invader Always Alright through solid fractions. Although she tired in the stretch, believe she’s gaining fitness startby-start and might be the one to control things up front this time around. AWESOMENEWYEAR finished well clear of the top pick when dropping to the $10,000 ranks for the first time. A repeat of that 53 Beyer Speed Figure would make her very tough to beat. Like Class Factor, DRIVE IN was no match for Awesomenewyear in that July 25 heat. She has run some competitive races in the past, however, and can get closer to the pace with a cleaner break. HAZYHEE is very logical shipping in from New York and removing blinkers for the always-dangerous Asmussen barn.

NINTH RACE

SYNCHRONY won this in 2018 and enters the 2020 Oceanport following a good try in a solid edition of the Grade 2 Fort Marcy Stakes. That race has produced four next-out winners with three of them (Instilled Regard, Somelikeithotbrown and Social Paranoia) returning to earn triple-digit Beyers in graded stakes races. He runs well fresh, is firing bullets at Fair Hill and will be charging late given a fair pace up front. SACRED LIFE hasn’t raced since the Pegasus World Cup Turf, but Chad Brown is one of the great layoff trainers in the game and his charge has shown flashes of true ability in his five stateside appearances. Think that World Cup distance was a bit far for him and the cutback works in his favor. EMPIRE OF WAR has some price potential after receiving a nice closers trip at Keeneland last time out. Got the right pace setup against a weaker field, but held his own against stakes company at two and three, and might be rounding back into form for Maker barn that is 16 for 61 (26%, $2.81 ROI) over the past two weeks.

TENTH RACE

TRIBECCA will have to earn this if he is to score his thirteenth lifetime victory as there are other speedtypes in this field, but he was in raging form (seven wins from his last nine races) before the twomonth layoff. Too fast for the quick Amundson last time out and that one returned to finish second with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure against “two-otherthan” optional claimers at Belmont. AWESOME ANYWHERE came to hand for Jerry Hollendorfer at Oaklawn over the winter and showed those races were not flukes with a good runner-up effort in the Oceanport Centennial. Involved in a pace duel with eventual fifth-place finisher Chateau, he won the battle but lost the war to good-trip stalker Laki (came back to run second in a salty Laurel allowance with a 97 Beyer). Figures to be pushing the top one from the opening bell. EPIC DREAMER might be the one to benefit if the top two hook up in a protracted duel. Finished behind Admiral Lynch in the Grade 3 World of Trouble Stakes on February 22 and that foe has returned to compile a 3-1-1-1 record with Beyers ranging from 92 to 104.

ELEVENTH RACE

PRICING EXERCISE disappointed at short odds in both Gulfstream tries, but takes a substantial class drop as a new gelding for Chad Brown. In against Bear Alley last time and that one returned to finish second against maiden specials on dirt at Churchill Downs with an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. THE MORMON MAULER ran a competitive Beyer after setting very fast fractions over Gulfstream sod for $32,000 two starts back. Gets back to preferred surface in second start of the cycle and figures close to the pace alone with New York shipper Loaded Joe. POWER BOSS has limited upside as a fifteen-time maiden, but the 5-year-old could get some pace to run at in this spot and seems well-placed shipping down from Saratoga for his third start of the year.

TWELFTH RACE

DO WHAT IT TAKES must prove recent 69 Beyer wasn’t an aberration, but she beat three next-out winners in that Tampa start and is interesting stretching back out in distance in a race lacking much pace. She has a half-sister that won at this mile distance and might try to utilize that stretch-out speed with a pace-prompting journey. BIG BASE is very comfortable around two turns and, unlike the top pick, is extremely consistent from a Beyer standpoint. Think that recent sprint against two next-out winners will serve as a nice prep as she stretches out in distance, and she can make the front with an aggressive early ride. LUCY’S TOWN missed the break before running on for second in local debut. Should go better with that race under her girth.