ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, EASTERN OCEAN

FIRST RACE

Class dropper PRETTY SAYLEE or first-time starter TAKE HER TEMP? ‘SAYLEE flashed speed vs. special-weight maidens first out, set the pace to inside the eighth pole, then tired and finished fourth. She drops to maiden-32 for her second start and will take these as far as she can. TAKE HER TEMP makes her debut for winning connections; the meet’s leading trainer wins regularly with maiden-claiming first-time starters. AFLEET DIVA debuts with scattered fast workouts this spring and summer; RISEN LADY debuts with slow works, but this stable pops every so often with longshot first-timers (3-for-12 past five years including winners that paid $24.60 and $17.80).

SECOND RACE

Each start by the improving 3yo turf runner EASTERN OCEAN is better than the start before including a solid third last out vs. older allowance rivals. An apparent standout dropping into an entrylevel allowance restricted to 3yos, his versatile style allows him to set the pace in a field without a confirmed front-runner, or rally from behind. ‘OCEAN and MECKLENBURG were nominated to the G3 La Jolla (race 10), but go in this easier spot. MECKLENBURG makes his U.S. debut, and first start beyond six furlongs, with a once-a-week work pattern that suggests he can fire first start since January. Tough to make a case based on his European form however, off slowly both starts and one win was on synthetic. HEYWOODS BEACH might have been compromised by the race shape in the Oceanside Stakes on opening day; that race was dominated by closers, ‘BEACH was forwardly placed before backing up. He is reunited with the jockey that rode him to his maiden win three back, and this race does not have much speed.

THIRD RACE

Dubious dropper COME ON KAT won a $25k claiming race two starts back, but is now curiously entered for $8k. Horrible pattern following just one subpar fourth-place finish. The 4-for-11 mare “should” win this low-level claiming race, but she is difficult to trust due to the class plunge. This is not handicapping. Rather, it is guessing the mare’s form. COALINGA HILLS is going the other way. That is, up. The 5-for-19 veteran is not fast enough based on speed figures, but unlike the top choice, at least her form is reliable. ‘HILLS will pick them up late. EASY GRADER, in the money twice since returning from a long layoff, drops a couple levels. Her class drop makes sense. INCREDIBLY LUCKY returns from a freshening for a stable having a solid summer meet.

FOURTH RACE

LUXURY LINER stretches to a mile and switches surfaces following a promising third-place dirt debut. She lost ground four-wide through the turn, six-wide into the lane, kept grinding outside and finished okay. Good career debut. Bred top and bottom for turf (Grazen and Bertrando), and bred for two turns (dam won routes, produced a route stakes winner), ‘LINER should relish the trip and footing. The challenge is winning a route off just a single sprint prep. PAWNEE makes her career debut with a solid workout pattern and a top rider aboard. Her challenge is making her debut around two turns. MISS EVER READY ran well in her runner-up debut, then bombed second out. She is bred to run long, and bred to run on turf. WARRENS CANDY GIRL is a Clubhouse Ride filly stretching out for the second start of her career. She received some wagering attention in her debut, but merely ran around the track. Improvement likely second time out at this longer distance.