ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, ROSE FLOWER

FIRST RACE

POSSE CAN DISCO a firster out of Laura Can Disco, a four-time sprint winner in her career who was also trained by Gullo, and she showed big speed in her races while proving to be effective on both turf and dirt; threat on debut if he can get to the lead vs. a field that has already had their chances, for the most part. AFTER PROM PARTY has made four well-spaced starts so far without success, including two at this level; didn’t run poorly the first time he dropped in class up here last summer, and he was off the layoff last time when contesting the pace around the turn and tiring in the stretch. IMPERIO D has already failed eight times in the maiden claiming ranks while hitting the board in five of those races; has speed from the outside and his typical race makes him a contender once again.

SECOND RACE

PRAIRIE WINGS switched to turf and stretched out in distance early in the meet off a bit of a layoff, and she just failed to hold off favored Sursum Corda after making all the running in that spot; cuts back slightly and may be meeting a slightly easier bunch this time. FORTY ZIP showed some potential on debut when getting away slowly from the gate and racing in last early, before putting in a game run through the stretch to gain ground on the leaders; took a step forward last time while showing improved positional speed and is a big threat here if she handles the added distance. ALL OTHERS FOLLOW looked like she needed her debut run at Tampa while racing greenly and staying one-paced in the stretch, then didn’t improve with added distance in her second start; improved at Monmouth last time while only second-best to her stablemate, Capital Structure, but still must prove that she can get the distance and she might go favored once again.

THIRD RACE

VALUE PROPOSITION was once again his own worst enemy while trying to get in through the stretch and just getting outfinished in the Poker; prior to that he had taken a big step forward in his 4yo debut and he has more tactical speed that his main rival, SEISMIC WAVE. SEISMIC WAVE took a tough beat in that Poker after making an early run to contention in a race that went to to the last mover; never had much chance in the pacedominated Baruch last time and is the horse to beat as he steps back out of stakes competition. MONARCHS GLEN is 0-9 since arriving stateside early last year but he has been competitive with solid company right along and his last two starts have both been good vs. quality horses Breaking the Rules and Digital Age.

FOURTH RACE

TACTICIAN made his NY debut over course and distance for this tag off the claim last time and never made his presence felt in the stretch after keeping in range of the pace early on; he is hard to trust off that effort for a trainer who has been unusually cold up here, but he has better races that then to get to and is in the right kind of spot if he just needed one following that short layoff. HEIGHT ran a much better race than TACTICIAN at this level last time while making a three-wide run at the winner on the lead and staying gamely to the end, before ultimately settling for second best; can be considered the horse to beat off that effort, which was his first-ever dirt route attempt. JUDICIAL RESTRAINT showed no speed and never factored in his MSW debut early in the year; got some time off and returned on the drop last time, where he once again failed to make an impact from off the pace; stretches out around two turns with the pedigree to handle it and adds blinkers for the co-leading trainer.

FIFTH RACE

GHOST GIANT made four starts for his prior trainer going longer, including both so far this year, but he was an effective turf sprinter prior to that and he may appreciate getting to go this shorter distance for the first time since last summer up here, where he ran well while twice finishing behind Dowse’s

Beach. DIRTY made his 5yo debut off the layoff at Belmont in June and he was no factor in that race while riding the rail throughout, though he did appear to bobble in the upper-stretch; drops for his second start with plenty of back races to be hard on this field. DOWSE’S BEACH did not run close to his best off the layoff in June, but he has done better in two starts up here; got shut off at a crucial point two back and lost all chance, and he finished a good 2nd last time after tracking in behind the lead and then switching out for the stretch to prevail for 2nd at this level.

SIXTH RACE

BELLA ROSE got herself into position and narrowly prevailed to upset maiden claimers in her turf debut as a 2yo, and she improved off the layoff last time while making a game run to challenge around the turn, before getting caught late going seven furlongs; tough post but she has run well in both turf starts to date and still has upside. MORE MANGO made all the pace and just held on to break her maiden last time, earing a field-best turf Beyer of 72 in the process; draws a perfect post on the inside and looks tough right back for top connections. MOSIENKO ran some good turf races in California early in her career but bombed in her lone race over that surface after arriving in NY; has turned things around on dirt lately and can have another chance on this surface as she makes her second start off the claim for a hot trainer.

SEVENTH RACE

ROSE FLOWER arrived from France with strong sprint form last year and ran well in all three starts over here, defeated a good allowance field impressively in between a pair of solid stakes tries, including the Autumn Days last November where she got buried in traffic in the stretch and lost all chance; gets a pass for the 2020 debut against Newspaperofrecord. GETMOTHERAROSE finished behind ROSE FLOWER in that allowance race last October, though she had an excuse that day while never getting room to run in the stretch; went forward from there and ultimately won a Grade 3 around two turns at Gulfstream, and she had an excuse in the Caress last time while getting intimidated in tight in the stretch and ultimately steadying out of contention. SARATOGA TREASURE didn’t factor in the Caress last time after a wide trip but she had run better in her prior start while closing into a slow pace, and she was really coming forward late last year while winning three of her last four, including the Autumn Days with a 92 Beyer; deserves another chance.

EIGHTH RACE

TEXAS SWING broke his maiden first time going long with an 86 Beyer, and did so as a February 3yo, then took a shot in the Tampa Bay Derby where he finished a no-threat 3rd, but improved his figure again; lightly raced colt has all the upside and he returns for an excellent layoff trainer who has already won seven dirt route races at the meet. WILL SING FOR WINE has made his last two starts over this distance on turf, but he is equally proficient on the main track, which is where his lone win occurred, and he also earned a Beyer of 80 that day; closer needs some pace but he is legged up for this. DANNY CALIFORNIA a NY-bred who consistently shows up with a solid effort and he handles this distance without issue; exits a win under similar conditions last month and his trainer has sent out some very live horses at the meet.

NINTH RACE

ROBIN SPARKLES switched to turf for her second career start and blitzed that field right on the front end en route to an impressive 90 Beyer; going to be tough right back if she runs anything like that as she takes the next logical step. SECURE CONNECTION dropped in class and turned all the way back to sprint early in the meet, and she rallied gamely through the stretch to close down next-out winner Aunt Nadine while matching her career-best Beyer; comes right back sprinting and will be running late. BIG BENNYS TRIBUTE has run some good races on the dirt and returned from the layoff recently to easily defeat restricted claimers from off the pace; switches to turf for the first time off the claim and he has some pedigree to handle this surface as his second dam is Ready’s Gal, a multiple graded stakes winner on the grass.