ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, POPPY’S PRIDE

FIRST RACE

No clue what effect these latest tropical storms might have on this week’s racing programs at Gulf, but nonetheless we’ll hope for the best when starting off another 4-day week by making all selections here for turf racing staying ON. Pretty wellmatched noon ET opener for Thursday has MORE DIAMONDS as one of the more logical contenders in what should be a full field; was a solid third in lone prior turf try while having been frustrated in all dirt attempts; seems as good as any. QUEEN LETIZIA resurfaces for the high-percentage Barboza barn after getting a 3-month respite; quite possible they’re angling for a switch today to the main track with her, huh. AUNT IRENE has already amassed 6 thirds from 10 starts and is an obvious ‘under’ for the verticals.

SECOND RACE

Nice displays of speed in both prior efforts make POPPY’S PRIDE strictly the one to beat in this $55k MSW dash for 2yo state-breds; ought to go all the way, unless either of the first-timers in capable hands, LOST A LEGEND or DOO WOP DON, can really motor. No surprise if one of the beginners registers a mild upset, but yeah, ‘Poppy sure seems to have done enough so far to rate as the day’s best.

THIRD RACE

The 33-percent strike rate (16-for-48) with firsttime claims for Zerpa quickly becomes an overriding factor when you sit down to dope out this N2L-$12.5k claiming mile; runner-up effort by THREE DEEP in basically this same kind of spot for prior connections last out makes this a pretty simple call. SENZAZIONE also was haltered from his last and now goes for a barn (A.Velazquez) with a positive ROI with new claims; he, too, is in fine form. STRONG ENDING can end the tri behind the two faves, unless EL ZEUS (50-1-6-7) feels like tacking onto a record deserving a double-take.

FOURTH RACE

Load-n-go strategy by MOZANO from his open-air outer box in this bottom-rung mdn.-claiming mile might be enough to get him a loooong overdue breakthrough; gelding with a number of decent efforts to his credit seems to bring a real edge over these moribund rivals; a lucky 13th try upcoming. BIG TREASURE also has reached the double-digit level in attempts while somehow remaining a maiden despite a few heady outs; helps with the tricks here. CONSILIUM was better earlier in the year than he seems to be now.

FIFTH RACE

Seems there’s an overabundance of early speed in this N3L-$16k dash scheduled for the grass, so a bit of early restraint from Berrios aboard GOT GLEE would seem helpful toward a favorable result; the 6yo mare surely needed the race 3 Thursdays ago when outrunning her 11-1 odds; Klesaris tends to do his best work with turf sprinters such as her. SAY ADIOS and SUGAR BOLT both are among the quickest of the quick; both figure into the mix a long way.

SIXTH RACE

Weighing the benefits of having had a race when tabbing MARIA’S MIRAGE ahead of a number of first-timers in this high-end mdn.-claiming sprint for 2yo fillies; no, the 16 Beyer will rarely win any sort of race at Gulf, but not illogical to expect improvement from her following the runnerup finish 5 weeks ago; outer post can help with an alert getaway. FLYING BLACK (Barboza) and VENTITIVE (Pompay) both are in highly capable hands and show solid local work slates.

SEVENTH RACE

Some Boynton regrouping by Sweezey precedes the return of TONY’S ROSE to racing action, so we’ll look for this filly to be fresh and fit when lurking a real danger from her rail slot in a wideopen N2L-$25k dash scheduled for the grass; fairly encouraging late-May comebacker among the reasons to like her here. CAT LADY STEPH initially appears to stand out with that last-out 82 Beyer, but hey, that was from January; swift recent

works, yes, but still have to wonder how ready she’ll be. ROYAL JEWEL has faced tougher in all 3 priors at this spring-summer meet and could loom a late factor given a decent trip.

EIGHTH RACE

Gonna go ahead and accept KALU and that gaudy 84 BSF from his latest at face value when calling him the one to beat in this open-$6,250 maintrack sprint; clearly the aggressive drop following that winning race for $12,500 makes you ask just whyyy his connections are essentially giving him away, but yeah, that’s how some folks win races while rotating their stock; more power to ‘em if it works here. KAREN’S COVE makes his 2nd start for Crichton, whose meet has been marked by an inordinate number of 2nds and 3rds; might just be one to further pad those stats. STARSHIP APOLLO, like the top pick, flaunted his recency with the lastout win over some of these same rivals for this same $6,250 tag.

NINTH RACE

Thinking that R NINJA J K being dropped back in for a tag by the Averill-Baxter axis ought to make him double-tough in the Thursday finale, especially after that solid first-turf try versus MSW types; team enters them where they can win, period. CONCORDE’S DREAM comes a very interesting unknown for Joey O. when exiting longer races; ought to be mowing down all weary ones late. ROCKET BLAST was even-money at this same level last out when checking in second; clearly a consideration when logically spotted.