ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, INSTINCTIVE

FIRST RACE

First post is 12:40 ET. Remember 12% takeout on Pick 5 wagers. Any of APPROVETHISMESSAGE’s last eight speed figures earned on dirt would qualify as the race’s best last Beyer, and he debuts on the circuit for McMahon barn that scored with newly-blinkered and newly-claimed Youngest of Five on August 1. Turning back in distance is somewhat of a concern as this will be the first dirt sprint of his now 50-race career. Hard-ridden along the inside on the second turn last time, the 9-year-old made a three-wide bid and just couldn’t put away the favorite in the lane. The fifth-finisher, 10-time winner Samicean, returned to run second for $5,000 at Lone Star with a 66 Beyer. Needs to get close to the pace. TALENT SCOUT made a three-wide bid to contend for the lead and went on to score over sealed, sloppy track here two weeks ago. Magee barn is 6 for 18 (33%, $2.04 ROI) over the past three years with older (3-year-olds and upward) last-out winners in low-level ($10,000 or less) claiming dirt sprints at Laurel. RIP RAP RILEY broke poorly from the rail in seasonal debut, rushed up to track the pace along the inside, seemed to take a bad step entering the turn and steadily tired once switched into the clear. Comes back from 231-day break for barn that is 7 for 27 (26%, $2.34 ROI) with older dirt sprinters returning from 180- to 365-day layoffs. Expect good tactical speed. HIGHER PURPOSE double-drops in class with good early foot - a potent combination - and wouldn’t be a surprise if able to grab an easy early lead.

SECOND RACE

INDIAN GHOST ended up in a tight spot tracking a slow pace along the rail on the backstretch, then was forced to alter course to the outside in midstretch en route to third-place effort at this level earlier in the month. Ghostzapper gelding has been in good form since being returned to the main track and can come with a late bid given a solid pace up front. BOOBY TRAP finished ahead of the top pick in that August 6 heat. He made a four-wide bid to the front in midstretch and looked home-free only to give the lead back up to favored winner Always Forgiven (returned to finish third with a 66 Beyer in entry-level allowance at Charles Town). Brings 15-race losing streak to the dance, but certainly fits on form and figures. Chasing BIG BOOTS has been somewhat frustrating, but perhaps he’ll appreciate stretching out to a route distance for the first time in his career. Outrun early behind some fast fractions last time, he split horses in the stretch for a piece. That race was contested over a wet track and believe that Big Boots is better on fast going.

THIRD RACE

STAND MY GROUND might have aimed too high in both starts since graduating for a $25,000 waiver condition in first start following the break. Two back, he fell twenty lengths off a blazing pace in a race that was won by consistent Singapore Flash (came back to run second in an entry-level allowance at Colonial, then won a $25,000 starter allowance at Delaware with stereo 79 Beyers). Last time out, he landed in a field that has produced three next-out winners. The winner of that race, Nick Papagiorgio, has now earned seven lifetime tallies and Stand My Ground should appreciate dropping to this true “non-winners of two” level. Runs late given some pace up front. SLEEPLESSDREAMMORE attempted a prolonged three-wide bid in first start following 162-day break and understandably flattened out in the final furlong when tackling next-out winner Up Against It (68 Beyer in off-the-turf starter-optional). Should benefit from that race from a fitness standpoint. SIN BIN another that should move forward in second start off a long layoff. Loomed boldly turning for home at Colonial only to finish in a one-paced fashion in between rivals. WAR LANCE swapped leads several times in the stretch of recent third-place effort at this level. Looks to be racing himself back into shape and might get the jump on the top three turning from home.

FOURTH RACE

NO OBLIGATION ($32,000 short yearling RNA, $30,000 yearling, $42,000 yearling, $60,000 June juvenile) breezed a quarter mile in 21 1/5 prior to the most recent auction and is a half-brother to

juvenile Grade 2-placed dirt router Splashy Kisses by a 17% juvenile debut sire (wins 15% with firstturf progeny). The dam won a couple of races on turf in England. This is the family of champion juvenile filly Tempera. Trainer Graham Motion is 4 for 11 (36%, $4.30 ROI) over the past four years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special turf sprints at Laurel. KENTUCKY COOL ($2,200 weanling, $10,500 yearling) is a full brother to two-time turf winner Domestic Vintage and is out of a halfsister to precocious juveniles Nonna Mela (won Grade 2 Adirondack) and Nonna Madeline (second Grade 3 Schylerville) from the family of Haskell winner Bluegrass Cat. ARREST ME RED is a halfbrother to stakes-winning dirt sprinter Hidden Treat out of a half-sister to Grade 1 dirt winners Daaher and Spun Sugar. Bullet work from the gate at Fair Hill. GANONDORF’s dam was a stakes-winning turf sprinter. LET US MAKE GOLD is a half-brother to stakes-winning dirt router Johnny Jump Up.

FIFTH RACE

SUZY SELLS SEASHELLS, listed as a vet scratch on July 30, received a favorable pace scenario when blowing away maidens despite failing to switch leads in the stretch. She might not get that setup here, but was flattered when the third-place finisher, Queen of Tomorrow (beaten 14 1/4 lengths), returned to win her next two starts by a combined 13 1/2 lengths with Beyers of 66 and 62, respectively. She’ll be running late for barn that went 5 for 15 (33%, $2.72 ROI) from August 1 to August 23. LIVE AID spurted clear to an uncontested lead when wiring maiden claimers three weeks ago. Expect her to show good speed once again, but she might not shake loose as easily with Magical Anna and Splasherstown entered to her inside. BRUT ROSE is a very interesting contender for Justin Nixon. Makes her third start of the form cycle after having to check her momentum when attempting to split horses in midstretch of most recent start. Forced to alter course down to the rail late, she was gaining on odds-on winner Tweet Away Robin. Earned field’s best Beyer when graduating by open lengths on the front at Fort Erie three back.

SIXTH RACE

INSTINCTIVE set the pace outside of an aggressive 110 to 1 shot, disdainfully dispatched that overmatched foe turning for home and gamely dug in to score in her return from a 190-day layoff. She’s been given plenty of time to recover from that taxing effort by Eppler barn that is 3 for 11 (27%, $3.07 ROI) over the past year with older last-out winners on turf. Should make use of the inside post to take the race to other quick foes like La Shirimp and Magical Luna. BIRD TYCOON enjoyed a perfect trip to win her turf debut at Parx. Enjoyed a pocket trip, was hard-ridden to keep up on the turn, inherited the lead when the leader jumped the inner rail and just got her neck down in front. Note that she’s won both route races and has the tactical speed to sit off the expected solid pace.

LA SHIRIMP bottomed out the field in recent offthe-turf score and had good turf form in California earlier in her career. She’s tactical enough to rate and finish if some of the inner speeds decide to jet to the lead.

SEVENTH RACE

BOX N SCORE has some things to prove as he makes first start following 306-day layoff while breaking from a tough outside post position. Although he received an ideal pace setup in his debut last fall at Belmont (wild scramble going into the first turn, very fast pace up front), he looked good sealing the deal after swinging six wide turning into the stretch. We’ll likely learn more about his overall quality as he steps up against winners for the first time, but like that he won fresh going a demanding nine furlongs first out of the box. CLEAR VISION looks to become the sixth nextout winner to emerge nd from the sixth race at Fair Grounds on Valentine’s Day (the runner-up, Kulik Bear, came back to win an entry-level allowance with a 93 Beyer). Bounced around at the start, he swung extremely wide into the stretch and hopped back to his left lead in the stretch. New blinkers might get him into the race sooner. MR. D’ANGELO, last year’s Maryland Million Turf hero, gave a promising performance in return from a 273-day break. He swung four wide into the stretch and finished evenly behind the two favorites. Needs pace help up front. MCELMORE AVENUE and BENNY HAVENS have upset chances. The former makes third start of the form cycle after finishing ahead of three next-out winners going nine furlongs. Benny Havens has the tactical speed to gain a good forward position in a race lacking much pace.

EIGHTH RACE

GALERIO received a heads-up ride from Angel Cruz in his return to this circuit on August 14. After the expected favored pacesetter broke poorly, Cruz sent the tactical Galerio up inside of longshot Brooks Robinson and they contested a moderate pace before Galerio put them all to bed in the final two furlongs. He’s won his last two races by a combined 13 1/2 lengths and has taken his last five starts at Laurel Park. Think he’ll work out a good trip sitting just off Ready and Rich in the early going. UNIVERSAL PAYDAY wore down favored The Rock Says at Saratoga and was flattered somewhat when that rival returned to win a restricted allowance here with a 79 Beyer. Tracked

the pace inside, was outpaced a bit on the second turn, but re-rallied three wide to score at nine furlongs. Expect a similar pace-tracking, groundsaving trip here. PAUL THE WAITER, uncoupled stablemate of the top pick, ships back from Parx after winning his last two dirt starts by a combined 14 1/4 lengths. Had difficulty defeating starteroptional company at Laurel earlier in the year and could be compromised by a lack of pace up front.

NINTH RACE

CHAMPIONSHIP ALLEY finds nice spot for circuit debut after facing an odds-on runaway winner on dirt at Tampa Bay back in late March (Tiz Approved won his next two starts by a combined 16 3/4 lengths with Beyers of 64 and 83, respectively). Tackled a couple of next-out winners in turf outing at Gulfstream on the Ides of March. Showed good speed along the rail in that two-turn route before tiring inside. Shows off a couple of bullets (presumably without blinkers) at Pimlico leading up to this start. STRAITOUTA CONGTIN is listed as a new gelding after solid performance in second start since the break. Sat a decent pocket trip, eventually squeezed his way through in between horses in midstretch and stayed on for a minor award. He chased a quick pace in that heat and can work out a similar trip here. KUKULKAN is a thirty-time maiden, but he does have good early speed and looms the one to catch once again. BACKWOODS BOOGIE’s dam was a stakes-winner on turf.