ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, MEMOLOTSAMISCHIEF

FIRST RACE

OMEN OF CHANGE is in good form, gets in light, is often a price, and loves this dirt. That turf try two back was actually better than it looks. Race flow is fine and connections find a good spot. ZOE’S DELIGHT is better of late and it coincided with the move to two turns. This gelding has marginal turf breeding yet ran great on the sod only two back. Perhaps he is just a natural two turn horse that is also in good form. TAPSOLUTE was cross entered as an MTO at this level for the 26th. Class drop for Mac can’t hurt and a new jock is named.

SECOND RACE

OUT OF PATIENCE finds a good spot. He has improved his Beyer in five straight starts. He gets good race flow and draws inside. In other words he just figures. SLICK AS ICE chased a good Blue Bomber only two back. He needs a fast pace and might get it today. This race didn’t come up very tough. KELA BREW drops in class and draws inside where he can save all the early ground. That try two back wasn’t half bad and then he was washed off the green last out. The speeds are the 3 and 7. We found it difficult to get excited for this race so take note.

THIRD RACE

EL TIZAR is a new turf horse. He found the front end and won in his last two starts but who is going to press him and prevent a third? We don’t see anyone. You know that his turf breeding is very good. Why can’t he keep improving? JACKS OUTLAW goes for a very good turf barn. This colt has tried two turns on the turf twice and ran great in both. Now he goes third off the layoff. He actually went favored in his most recent. NORTHCUT was 44-1 on this sod only two back. He was only 3-1 in his most recent so bettors have caught on to his turf ability. This guy could be fourth choice on the tote and that means value.

FOURTH RACE

VICTIM is a new route horse. She finds a good spot today and gets an OK pace as long as the 1 and the 7 stay in. What if this filly just hated Tampa? It is good to see Chirinos keep the faith. CITY GONE COUNTRY didn’t run poorly in her most recent but it still better on the dirt which she gets back to today. She has good tactical speed in a race without that much pace. Does she stalk the 1 around the track? We could see an effort like her wining one from three back. MADISON’S QUARTERS draws the rail and has some speed. She sends, right? Class drop is tempting but do we even know whether she likes the dirt? We do like that she gets in light as that could help her front speed.

FIFTH RACE

LADY PALOMA is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam missed the board in only turf start. Lone grass sib won its only turf start. This filly has tactical speed in a race with little pace. Second off the break might help and we like that Butler stays put. SPITFIRE SUZIE drops in class and has turf experience. Does she get enough pace to set up stalking trip though? The Padilla barn is only 5% route to sprint. GRADED ATTITUDE gets in light and might have some sneaky speed. Lone turf start came three back versus better at Lone Star. GIVE EM SHADE is by a 5% debut turf sire. Her dam went 2-0-0-0 on the green and this is her first grass foal. MINI WHINNY is by a 12% debut sire and a 11% debut turf sire. Her dam went 20-8-3-1 and earned 101K (no turf). This is her first foal to race. ESTHER is by a 9% debut turf sire. Her dam went 4-0-0-0 on the green. One of four sibs won on the grass with another two having hit the board.

SIXTH RACE

MEMOLOTSAMISCHIEF is by a 31% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam went 42-14-8-6 and earned 124K. This is her first foal to race. Works are perfect. ULTIMATE KNIGHT is by a 5% debut sire. His dam was un-raced. Of 7 sibs to race, 5 won with 4 having beat winners. Homebred draws nicely and we like longer works. DRIED PEPPER ran well in his debut and draws outside for his second start. We like that he has worked

between starts. He has every right to improve in this spot. MAGIC TIGER is by a 13% debut sire. His dam went 28-5-5-4 and earned 102K. This is her first foal to race. BREXTON is by a 0 for 4 debut sire. His dam was un-raced. Three of seven sibs won.

SEVENTH RACE

WARRIOR BOSS is the value. We like the combo of third off the layoff and a return to the turf. This barn is very good on the green. This horse should love two turns. We like how he puts three races together off the long layoff. STITZY just figures. He loves this sod and draws well for upcoming stalking trip. We even like the jock switch to Eikleberry. YEAH YEAH is as good as anyone. He just ran a Beyer top and goes for a 19% turf barn. Hernandez gets a leg up and he often rides for this barn (23%). WESTONS WILDCAT is by a 0 for 1 debut turf sire. His dam never tried the sod. Two sibs failed to win on the weeds but one did hit the board.

EIGHTH RACE

DELIA O’HARA ran OK in her last two but her turf breeding isn’t that good so her return to the dirt is what we like best. This filly draws outside and did show speed three back when breaking her maiden by over 5 lengths. Oh, she ran a Beyer top that day. The Davis barn is 33% turf to dirt and 19% route to sprint. BRECHIN’S COMMAND is feeling good but also unlucky when losing back to back photos. New barn in Broberg and he is 26% off the claim. MIDNIGHT EMMA did try tougher off the layoff and notice that she didn’t get much play at 12-1. Then she stumbled at the start in a race that she probably needed anyway. Class drop is the next logical step and Arrieta does get a leg up (29% with Silva).

NINTH RACE

BLUE LIZZY has some solid figs as she tries the dirt for the first time. Her turf breeding was only OK so maybe this filly will like the surface switch. The leading rider gives it a go. CAUSIN MISCHIEF just missed at this level only two back. She tried two turns for the first time last out and ran OK.

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This barn is 19% HEAVENLY ARCH is by a 0 for 10 debut sire. Her dam went 6-2-1-0 and earned 72K. Lone sib is 17-3-4-1 and earned 34K.