ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, BY MY STANDARDS

FIRST RACE

Paris Lights might’ve been a substandard G1 winner (CCA Oaks) but she was very much a plus maiden winner, and seeing her as the only horse to beat GLAMOUR GIRL in GG’s last start piqued the interest. Then there was the sharp recent work pattern (the filly has worked fast before, but not quite to this extent), and finally quite a stat courtesy of DRF Formulator trainer patterns: Larry Jones, last five years, maidens going route to sprint on dirt, is 12-6-1-2 with a $3.78 ROI. We’ll see if she can get up in time. Rail draw ought not hurt (provided she doesn’t duck the gap) since she’s dropping back anyway. MOVIE MOXY ran fine in both starts, seemingly preferring this 7f trip last time to the 6f in her career debut. But she still was green at KEE, and can’t decide whether long break until she worked back was about waiting for this CD spot or because of some more concerning factor. In any case, think she’ll be lower than the morning line.Trainer Chad Brown does fine worth with firsters in maiden-special-weights and FINANCIAL ONE is a sister to the excellent Close Hatches, but the Brown brand is so strong you lose in the long term on these types.

SECOND RACE

You can be pretty sure you’re getting a price on a Mott first-time starter in a dirt sprint, since the default assumption is he doesn’t win with horses like that. Generally true, but two winners from 12 2yo dirt-sprint maiden-special-weight Churchill first-timers over the last five years, and if a horse looks like it wants to win early, this barn will have the horse ready. AMUSING ANTICS, the Mott firster, is by Super Saver, who has flickered to life recently, and out of an unraced half-sister to the mighty Covfefe. Her drills, on paper, hint at ample speed. First-timer SALTY AS CAN BE has such an unusual work pattern for debut, going from the Casse farm in Florida to Keeneland to Ellis then onto Churchill. Into Mischief, obviously, is an incredible debut sire. Pricey auction buy is a sister to graded-stakes winner Salty (2nd in career debut with an 82 Beyer), campaigned by these same connections. Jury out on first-crop sire Not This Time, but he was no doubt precocious. SUPER SPORT brings an eye-catching string of KEE works for capable barn. Outside draw no hindrance.

THIRD RACE

Weak link on the card, this race. 2-1 morning-line favorite Positive Spirit never was as good as her Demoiselle suggested and almost certainly isn’t getting back to that now. Resurrection Road’s last race is an outlier, and I don’t believe it at all, and Jeweled Princess almost certainly needs a wet track for her best. Beautiful Trauma is the one shorter price who merits at least some respect. She’s working for her comeback like she might be okay, but it’s not just that she might’ve been flattered by a wet track in her sharp December Fair Grounds win, the surface that day played to her strength. Enough of the tosses. HIGH REGARD loomed and faded last out, but that was Ellis, and she has done all her best work at Churchill. Looking for a bounce-back. SARA SEA also comes out of the same Ellis race, which was a little off-key. She can do better than that. SHACKLETTE needed the CD race two back and floundered at Ellis. She likes Churchill better but could get too much of a demanding pace.

FOURTH RACE

OCEAN BREEZE at the 2-1 morning-line price would be value, though she figures to fall below that number. Got the turn-back from routes to a sprint she needed last out, only to run into Mundaye Call, 6-5 favorite for the Eight Belles. Should get a sweet, sweet setup if the on-paper race flow materializes. Same holds for SHE CAN’T SING, and if you wanted to get cute and fade Ocean Breeze, she’s usable on top to pick up the pieces in a race top-heavy with front-runners. Among those likely to go forward, MISS T TOO, who seems to only have one gear - high — is preferred.

FIFTH RACE

OFF WE GO, unlike many here, has no holes in the work pattern, with a fairly typical Amoss threequarters in 1:13 in change suggesting all has gone as planned breeze-wise into the first start. Looks quick enough for 6f, and first foal to race out of dam who won her career debut sprinting, albeit on turf. Almost has to be a decent price. PEACE BROKER out of Coin Broker, who has two other foals to race, the last of whom is Donna Veloce, who runs in the Oaks and was an awesome firstout winner last year at 2. This filly RNA’d for $290K at a yearling sale. Trainer Calhoun has a healthy ROI from a large sample of 2yo starters. What would you guess trainer Brad Cox’s record is with first-time starters in dirt-sprint maiden-specialweights over the last year? OK - I’ll tell you: 6-58 wins with a 79-cent ROI. TRAVEL COLUMN looks like she might be a runner, but suspect she’s getting heavily bet.

SIXTH RACE

STRIKE THAT got the softest trip imaginable winning last out at Saratoga - and he’s in line for a similar journey! Where is the pace in this N3X alw / $80K sprint? There is none, really, save Strike That, who is drawn outside to control the race from the start. Clever claim out of debut has run well in every start for these connections. First pass through this race and MUCHO was a hard pass. Fifteenth or so pass through it and he was looking better and better. Decidedly meh last out at Ellis but second and third starts back make him competitive, and there are times when he’s shown enough zip to race close. Zero upside. Feel like NITROUS is set to run a peak race, but the flow will be against him and he’s just not especially fast.

SEVENTH RACE

MORE GOOD TIMES was held up, patiently ridden, behind a slow pace, and once moved out and tapped for run before the quarter pole, she came with a instant acceleration and a big, sustained finish. Keeneland race looked like a getting-toknow-you kind of start, and I’ll guess she can continue on an upward trajectory for the Maker barn, which just took over training duties this summer. FLABBERGASTED was a solid, steadypaced course and distance winner when last seen 11 or so weeks ago. Nobody behind her in that race seems better than average, and while she’s a very likely win contender, suspect the odds are going to drop considerably below the line, and that she’ll be negative value. ELLA BRILLA took a step backward in her most recent start but returned to the work tab just 14 days later and has contending CD form going this trip from May.

EIGHTH RACE

Watching MUNDAYE CALL come through the homestretch of her last two races, it looked like someone had sped up the video to 1.5X real speed, so quickly were her legs turning over. She was in hand, leading on a strong pace last out at Ellis, and came home her final quarter in 12.25 while never asked for anything! It was, dare I say, Covfeveesque. Brad Cox has unlocked something in this filly, and the form of her KEE win two back, another romp, has held up well. Worked back twice. Draw, price not appealing, but hard to stand against. FOUR GRACES had the one flat race at Gulfstream but otherwise has done nothing wrong in her career, her most recent start, an easy in in the Beaumont, the best of her career. Yet for all the good she’s done this year, she probably needs the top pick to take a step back to win the Eight Belles. SCONSIN’s only chance is if Four Graces proves fast enough to keep up with MC and those two cook one another.

NINTH RACE

SHARING, short price or not, is too strong. She has three wins and a second in turf races at or about one mile, and the defeat was every bit as good as the wins. That came at Royal Ascot to Alpine Star, one of the best 3yo fillies in Europe, who just finished second, albeit getting weight, in the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois, a straight mile open to older horses. Her course and distance win this spring was measured, her first race off the shelf, and she should be set for something stronger here. HENDY WOODS finished fastest in the G3 Regret, her chances undone by a wide draw, the distance perhaps longer than ideal. That was a good win last out at IND over a sticky, tricky course, and she appears to be the main danger to the favorite. For an exotics boost, consider LUCKY BETTY, whose speed figure from her winning turf debut last out is modest in great part because the slow pace prevented any sort of decent final time. She finished very fast and showed plenty of ability on dirt this spring.

TENTH RACE

Five-horse field in the Whitney, but BY MY STANDARDS still didn’t manage much of a trip, the issues beginning with a poor break from the fence. Was in chase mode as Improbable galloped (almost literally, given the crawl of a pace) around, never threatened, and two back, in the Foster, Tom’s d’Etat got the jump on him. Now, finally, there is real speed, Bodexpress, and a more truly run race will help BMS. Have not found video of his recent work, but fastest of 94 half-mile says something, and this is one of the best work horses in the country, so it’s good to see a fast clocking. Cutting back a half-furlong isn’t going to hurt at all, and with McKinzie in, positive value is possible. To round out the exacta at a price, BMS’s Bret Calhoun-trained stable-mate SILVER DUST, whose work pattern suggests he is thriving after a freshening. 8.5f here is more his trip than 9, and think he could quietly hit another little peak on the day. OWENDALE’s year hasn’t gone the way his camp really hoped, but the Foster race shape was against him and he can get back to his best. Just don’t know that his best is quite good enough. The 2019 McKinzie would be formidable, but we haven’t seen that horse this year. He skipped an intended spot last month in SoCal. The recent works look better than earlier in the summer, but I’m betting he’s still not the old McK.

Hard to believe MONOMOY GIRL really is all the way back to her 2018 self after missing all of 2019, but all indications are she really is. Her physical appearance at Fair Grounds this winter really stood out - she’d filled out considerably from her 3-year-old self. The Ruffian win was pretty damn easy, Vexatious really flattered the form of the race beating Midnight Bisou last out, and the progression is perfect for at least a repeat of the last performance, if not a step forward. Got a good draw and despite her odds-on status, I can’t side against MG. SHE’S A JULIE should be the value among the plausible players since she enters after a real clunker at MTH. She’s bounced back before from a poor performance, won this race at year ago, shows lively drills. HOROLOGIST loves herself some MTH, where she’s 5-5, so view the Molly Pitcher with that — and her perfect trip — in mind. Still, she packs some upside making second start for Mott. The concern is that in beating Midnight Bisou last out at SAR, VEXATIOUS might have somewhat emptied the tank.

TWELFTH RACE

SWISS SKYDIVER had a target on her back in the Blue Grass, Art Collector following her around the far turn and getting the run of the race, and in Art Collector we’re talking about the horse who was going to be second choice in the Derby until injury forced him out. Other than that - total domination of her class by Swiss Sky — look, for instance, what she did to Speech at Santa Anita. Sure, the trip could turn tricky with the rail draw, but I see her getting outside Gamine on the first turn, rating behind G, keeping her in range, and attacking in upper stretch. SS is the longer price of the two and, to me, the more likely winner. I’ll take DONNA VELOCE as an exotics booster, and would even consider playing her to win at something close to the listed odds - which I don’t see her being. I think it was too much, too soon for her last fall, going into G1 route stakes off a debut sprint win, and she performed admirably nonetheless. The stumbling start in March didn’t keep her from bossing Speech, and the works for this long layoff comeback hardly could be more impressive. Speaking of impressive work, GAMINE has just been lighting it up. She seems spot on for this and has the most raw talent in the field, but there’s no comparison between her lone two-turn try and her one-turn bombs, and now she has to run even farther. Honorable mention to SPEECH, who nearly beat Gamine at Oaklawn and crushed talented Venetian Harbor last time.

THIRTEENTH RACE

EXTRAVAGANT KID got buried from his rail draw in a full field at Keeneland last out, still ran well, and has a better post this time over a course where he’s 3-2-1, with perhaps the two best performances of his career. Nice freshening, four recent works, should be set for something competitive. With Bound for Nowhere coming out, WELLABLED becomes the speed of the speed, and he is dangerous cutting back to a shorter sprint from the 6f he raced last time. Little worried that this is his fifth start of the form cycle, as he’s never held up this long before. DIAMOND OOPS will need a lot of luck since he breaks from the rail, is dropping back, and will have to negotiate heavy traffic. He might be slightly better dirt sprinting, but he is sufficiently talented on turf and brings an eye-catching work pattern north from Florida.