ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, HOPONTHEBUSGUS

FIRST RACE

WAR OF DECEPTION took a big step forward when he moved to turf for his second start and his sharp work on Aug. 23 suggests he will continue to progress. He has plenty of speed to take advantage of his inside post and could be gone if he breaks on top. KING OF ROCK is clearly the one to beat off of his runner-up finish at this level two back. It’s also easy to toss his latest as he was pretty much eliminated when he checked sharply and dropped back to last just after leaving the gate. SOUL REFLECTION came back from a layoff with a solid effort on dirt and being out of a turf stakes winner he might take a shine to the lawn,

SECOND RACE

SINISTER finished behind SEMPER FI last time but he broke a step slow leaving from the rail and was stuck behind horses most of the way. Nice work Aug. 22 suggests he could take a big step forward for Dibona who the past five years has a 21% strike rate with claimed horses running back the first time. SEMPER FI has been right there in all of his sprints and once again figures to make a big impact. He also goes for a new barn and the past five years Eppler has won with 13% of her claimed horses running back the first time. ADEEB attracts Zayas and debuts for Pletcher who the past five years has a 15% strike rate but a low $1.17 ROI with 3-year-olds and up debuting in maiden claiming races. Bernardini 11% as a debut sire. This is the first foal out of an unraced mare. Her dam, a Grade 3 winner on turf, won her debut going 7 furlongs on turf.

THIRD RACE

No stars in the field but UNCLE ANDREW looked good getting his second win and was claimed by Joseph who has strong numbers with claimed horses running back the first time. UNCLE ANDREW has yet to run a bad race over this course and he owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure. He also has some tactical speed which could give him an edge over his stablemate, KEEPSAKEKITTEN, who does his best running late and will need to work out a trip. He has won half of his eight starts and he would have five wins if he didn’t have a brutal trip in his latest. VERDICT IS IN and it was guilty for Kuna who impeded this guy right before the wire in the same race KEEPSAKEKITTEN exits. VERDICT IS IN was awarded the win and it was his second straight solid effort. He has to be rated behind KEEPSAKEKITTEN who should have won the race, though.

FOURTH RACE

ICONIC didn’t win but he ran okay the only time he went this distance. His victory in a key race at this level two back stamps him as the one to beat. He certainly fits better here after being in deep in his latest and he does seem to like it here. BOLD PAYNTER isn’t the most consistent horse around but he almost took them all the way in his latest. He doesn’t need the lead and should get a nice trip from a forward position. LONG GRAY LINE finished third the only time he went this far and will appreciate the easier company after chasing a fast pace for twice the price in his latest. He could also be sitting on a peak performance in his third start back.

FIFTH RACE

SOPE was a vet scratch when he was entered for this price on Aug. 15 but he came back with a decent work so he should be ready to go. His dam won her debut and two of his three sibs won first time out, most notably Taco, who won his first four races which were all on turf. Zayas attracted and Loza can have them ready to roll first time. APACHE takes the plunge. He did show some speed before fading in his lone try on turf so he may be okay with the surface switch. No turf winning sibs to

report but his 4-year-old half-brother Embeed just finished second in a $25K maiden claimer in just his third start at Penn National on Aug. 26. VALID

EXCHANGE is a 16-time maiden who just missed at this level and distance in his latest. Not my kind of horse but he could win this.

SIXTH RACE

PRETTY LIDDIE is by an excellent debut sire and she is also a full-sister to Rebelde, a 3-time winner who broke his maiden going 5 1/2 furlongs as a 2-year-old. She looks fit enough and the past five years O’Connell has a 19% strike rate and $2.38 ROI with babies debuting in maiden claiming races. MISS ITALY is a half-sister to 2-year-old debut winner Stellamattutina and attracts Zayas. Nobody should be surprised if she comes out running. HOPE LADY wasn’t a threat in her debut but she got off to a poor start and the winner romped. The runner-up came back to win her next start for fun, too. At least she’s had a race and is eligible to move forward with the experience behind her.

SEVENTH RACE

HOPONTHEBUSGUS goes for the hat trick and she was pretty impressive winning her latest. The 81 Beyer Speed Figure she received stands out and she goes from one good barn to the other with Joseph haltering her. The past five years horses claimed by Joseph have won their first start back at a 33% clip. PASSION PLUS came from last to win at this level and distance and the runner-up won a first-level allowance race at Ellis Park in her next start, She retains Zayas and should have speed to run at. DRINKS ON ME was stuck on the rail and when it looked like she might make some noise she had to steady and got shuffled back going into the stretch turn in the same race PASSION PLUS exits. She finished pretty well when she finally found room along the rail late.

EIGHTH RACE

PALADIO has been freshened since he finished fourth against a tougher group in a $60K optional race July 5. The runner-up received a 68 Beyer for her second-place finish in the $100K Desert Vixen and a 78 for her win in in the $200K Susan’s Girl. This guy may have been telling us something when he worked a bullet 5 furlongs on Aug. 28. LAMPLIGHTER JACK won a key race in his debut and though the Beyer was pretty low, the runnerup received a 47 Beyer for his win in his next start. Jack should improve with a race behind and blinkers going on for Delgado who has strong numbers with horses wearing them for the first time. HIDDEN DREAMS took a huge step forward in his second start, has worked well in the interim, and has strong connections with Nicks and Zayas teaming up.

NINTH RACE

ROYAL SQUEEZE looks as good as any in a highly competitive event where all are capable and it just depends who shows up with their best stuff. ROYAL SQUEEZE was coming off a layoff when he finished third in the $60K Open Lead and should move forward in his second start back. He should also get a trip similar to his win in the $100K Big Drama last year. YODEL E. A. WHO has been away since he blitzed them in a $35K claimer on May 30, but he can fire fresh and could be tough to get past if he gets the jump on the other speed. BELLE TAPISSERIE makes his first start for Dobles who the past five years is 4 for 10 and has a $6.38 ROI with new shooters coming back between 61-180 days.

TENTH RACE

SPEED FRANCO seems obvious. He owns the best last-race Beyer Speed nd Figure and he was the runner-up in a pricier nonwinners of three in his second start back. He has speed but can stalk and should get a nice trip from a forward position with Jaramillo retaining the mount. DILLON ROCKS looked good getting his second win and he was not only coming off a layoff in the same race the top pick exits, but he also broke a half-step slow and then got hung out three-wide on the first turn. Easy to imagine him making a big impact with a better trip while making his second start back. Zayas abandons him to ride BUDGET BUSTER who is going for the hat trick and is making his first start for Sano who has solid numbers with newly claimed horses.