ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, PRIZED WARRIOR

FIRST RACE

LOWCOUNTRY is out of a dam who won three races on the turf, including her own debut as a 2-yearold, and she went on to place in a couple of stakes races; this colt has been working well toward his debut for trainer Mike Stidham, who is always dangerous with debut runners, and he lures Bravo. DAISY’S DOC showed some late interest in that debut sprint at Colonial and now joins the barn of Jane Cibelli, who does well with new faces; half top Grade 2 grass winner Channel Cat, who earned nearly $950K. DEMOCRATIC NORMS makes his career debut for trainer Chad Brown, which means he’s a threat by default; dam started only twice, winning once, and her first starter is 0-for-3.

SECOND RACE

BIG CITY RALPH ran well enough in his first career start, also a route, and though he was off the board in his latest he did have a pace excuse in that sprint; stretches back out for a barn which is currently clicking at 33% with same. SUPER SHOES didn’t break well in that debut, against better, and he has lots of upside here with a clean getaway; note the sharp work in the interim. RUBENSLEGACY benefited from a favorable race flow — and perhaps he liked the wet track — when 2nd in his latest, which was easily his best race yet; regression candidate off that line but he has to be respected based on the Beyer.

THIRD RACE

ECONOMIC POLICY ships in from Saratoga and drops in class for his third start off the layoff for Chad Brown, meeting a seemingly average field for the class level; he hasn’t shown much speed thus far, even with blinkers added last time, but he should get enough pace to chase, as there are a couple of established speeds to his inside. WICKYDIDIT is one of them, and he’ll take them as far as he can on the lead; off the board in his first start of 2020 last time but he likely needed the race, and a protracted early duel didn’t help his cause. LUCKY STRIPE merits a look based on the one turf race, where he closed with interest and posted a representative Beyer; didn’t get much pace help in that last one, a race switched to the sloppy main track.

FOURTH RACE

PRIZED WARRIOR has the tactical speed to get early position and that’s a big reason for his recent success, as he has run 1st or 2nd in four of his last five starts; latest was a good effort, against an above average field for the class level, and he could be the one to beat today on the strength of that running line. BRIDGETOTHEFUTURE gets back on the main track and this does seem to be his best surface; he’s had his chances but he does fit with this field in terms of his Beyers. COMBAT RIBBON stretches out for the first time but he may be able to make a late impact given a contested pace up front; dam was winless in three starts, all sprints, but his sire won the BC Dirt Mile.

FIFTH RACE

COMPETITIVE RATE doesn’t boast a lot of pedigree power from the dam’s side — Rufus Ruth was 0-for-19, and this is her first foal — but sire Competitive Edge is currently clicking at 19% with is 2-year-old firsters, and this filly does have a couple of works that hint at ability; note trainer Tom Clark’s record with turf sprinters. CHATELET is clearly going to be tough, coming off a sharp debut where she just missed despite dueling for the lead from the start; kin to no less than seven winners, including turfer Smart and True, and she has very strong connections. ORBS BABY GIRL is the first foal out of the dam, who posted her lone win on the main track, but this filly seems to have some speed, based on her works; board tells more.

SIXTH RACE

THE RIGHT PATH may be overlooked some in the wagering after two sub-par efforts in his last pair but he’s back at six furlongs and this is his best game at this time, if his recent Beyers are any indication; he’ll be looking to come from off the pace but there is enough speed to his inside to set him up for a late run. ABSENTEE, from the same barn

as the top pick, is another who stands to benefit from the expected race flow; game in defeat in his latest, and his Beyers have been steady. WENT

WEST came back running from the layoff and he makes his 2nd start off the bench today for Kelly Breen, who wins at a high rate (25%) with such runners; dangerous if able to take a step forward here, and his back figures obviously suggest he’s capable of just that.

SEVENTH RACE

BIG PERM made a mid-race run at the leader and eventual winner in his first and only try on turf to date, weakening some late but holding well enough for the show; he was flattered when the runner-up returned to score in his return, and though he gave way in his latest that was on a wet main track. MAINE has the speed to get position from the start, and his turf Beyers put him in the middle of this; this is the lowest level he’s tried yet, and is in fact his first try against maiden claimers on the grass. MILLIES PARTY BOY makes his 21st try on the turf as he seeks that elusive first career win, which makes it tough to use him on top, but he’s an exotics contender off his last pair — he ran deceptively well in defeat against similar, enduring a wide trip two back and he made a premature move last time.

EIGHTH RACE

LIGHTS DOWN LOW overcame a speed bias to win from off the pace at a big price on the Haskell undercard last time out, and the resulting Beyer gives her strong credibility vs. this field; that figure was much improved over her usual 2019 Beyers, perhaps suggesting she’s a much better filly since returning from the break. LITTLEBITALILY makes her first start off the claim and win in her latest, and though she’s widest today she does have the speed to work out a trip from the start, as she did in that last one, when she rated effectively; given that same kind of trip she has to be considered a threat. BEE’SNBEE’S rises off a game win against non-winners of three in her latest, posting the best Beyer of her career; logical enough, though she could have trouble running back to that figure on this class rise.

NINTH RACE

MARKSMAN was off the board but wasn’t far off the winner in his latest, which was at this same level but against a much better field of AN1X turfers than this one, which is made up largely of lastout maiden winners or horses exiting claimers; he was far back two back but that was his first start off the layoff and he wasn’t pushed hard once clearly beaten, yethhe showed some interest through the lane. IDLE TIME moves into the allowance ranks in his first start off the claim by trainer Mike Dini; lone “bad” try was two back, when he broke through the gate prior to the start and then ran into traffic trouble in the lane. LIL COMMISSIONER gets back on the green, and though he’s been racing exclusively on dirt since the fall he has solid and consistent back turf figures.