ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, TAMING THE TIGRESS

FIRST RACE

Beaten favorite both starts, TAMING THE TIGRESS meets a field of maiden-50 fillies she should handle. She had excuses her first two losses vs. state-bred special-weights. She was off slowly from the rail in her debut; second time out she raced wide over a racetrack that may have favored the inside. First-time tag, modest rivals, ‘TIGRESS looks like the most probable winner on the card. However, first-time starter ALLIE’S PAL has worked well over the track and is bred for speed. She is by Creative Cause, whose juvenile progeny won just 10 percent first out, but her dam won her career debut as a 2yo and had plenty of speed. With a seven-pound weight break under the apprentice rider, ‘PAL is likely to produce gas. COMMAS SAVE LIVES is distant third choice. Progeny of her sire rarely win first out, and the first three runners produced by her dam are still maidens, but her dam was quick. BINGOS SYSTEM adds blinkers and could improve second time out.

SECOND RACE

A career maiden with an underachieving history, MASTER RYAN nonetheless gets the call over comebacker CHIPPER. Both starts this summer by ‘RYAN were solid runner-up finishes over this course at this level (Cal-bred MSW). He finished more than three lengths clear of third last out; a similar effort should produce his first victory in the seventh start of his career. CHIPPER has not raced since December, and never on turf, but perhaps neither is an issue. He ran super in his debut last fall, runner-up with trouble. He subsequently misfired vs. stakes company, then finished third with trouble next out and was sidelined. Sired by Street Boss, the switch to turf should be fine. COALINGA ROAD returns from an eight-month layoff with a solid work pattern, plenty of speed, and an inside post. Runner-up in a similar Cal-bred turf sprint in January, she will be part of the pace brigade. R MATINEIGH IDOL is a 5yo maiden whose runner-up finish last out, in January, puts him in the hunt.

THIRD RACE

TIZ TOFFEE returns from Los Alamitos to Del Mar in sharp form, she ran well finishing second last out at 870 yards, she won three of her last five, has won twice Del Mar, and trainer Rosemary Trela has quietly become one of So Cal’s most reliable low-profile trainers. Since 2015, Trela trainees won 27 percent of their starts (30 for 110). ‘TOFFEE is drawn outside with a versatile running style, and probably will be positioned in front of her main rivals. Those include EASY GRADER, claimed from a win for $8k last out and moving up two levels to $12.5k. A lightly raced 7yo, she won 4 of 14 and will rally late. STURDY ONE was pulled up mid-race last out, but walked off the track and returned to post three works. She drops in class, and certainly knows where the wire is: 11 career wins. She has speed, and gets a weight break with seven-pound apprentice rider Alexis Centeno.

FOURTH RACE

The fourth-place comeback by MISS MOZART was better than it looks, and sets her up for a maiden-20 victory second start back from a layoff. ‘MOZART steadied in early traffic, dropped back to fifth on the rail, rallied into contention for the place spot in deep stretch, then was passed late to finish fourth. Solid comeback under the circumstances. She meets a modest field second start back; trainer Bill Spawr and jockey Tiago Pereira are 6-for-12 together this summer. SAVE THE STORY flashed speed and faded twice last summer vs. special-weight maidens. Off more than a year, she returns at rock bottom for a trainer whose comebackers are routinely ready to fire. CALIFORNIA COOL dueled and tired in her comeback last month at a higher maiden-claiming level. Class drop second start back.

FIFTH RACE

Second-time starter RUN SNAPPY can post a minor upset after a troubled fifth-place debut. She was shuffled early after breaking from the rail, angled outside in the lane, lugged in while racing greenly, and finished well. Blinkers on second time out, and

she gets off the rail. One potential flaw is progeny of first-crop sire Runhappy have underachieved so far (1 for 26 into Monday). COMMANDER KHAI finished second in the same race as the top choice. Although she benefitted by the soft pace, she did finish more than three lengths clear of third and might not need much better to win this. FREEDOM FLYER, the only filly, is a first-time starter by outstanding debut sire Constitution (25 percent wins, debut juveniles). Turf should be fine; the best foal produced by her dam was three-time turf winner Recoupe. The reason she debuts against males is she got stuck on the also-eligible list last week and did not draw into a filly maiden race. First-time starter MAC DADDY TOO is worth monitoring, his performance could influence analysis of race-8 contender Found My Ball. They worked in company Aug. 23; ‘BALL pretty much blew away MAC DADDY.

SIXTH RACE

The inside post is a challenge at six and a half furlongs, but PRINCIPE CARLO gets the call nonetheless in this Cal/bred N1X/optional $20k claiming sprint. He already won three times at this level or higher, including his last two vs. Calbred allowance rivals. ‘CARLO is entered for the optional tag while dropping from a tough N2X. He faces a difficult pace scenario from the rail, but he has survived pace duels in the past and enters as the “best horse.” QUICK FINISH ran super last out, runner-up in a highly rated Cal-bred N1X. He missed by a nose, while nearly four lengths clear of third. Super effort by a sharp gelding. The knock is he lacks the killer instinct: in the money four straight without winning; he has two career wins and seven two-three finishes. LIGHTNING FAST lost a lot of ground last out finishing third with a wide trip in a stakes race for Cal-bred 3yos. This race has plenty of pace to set up his late rally. Offthe-pace upset candidate.

SEVENTH RACE

SABINOS PRIDE returns to her preferred turf surface, and gets the call in a wide-open turf mile for 3yo claiming fillies. She is facing easier than she met in two recent starts against older on dirt; either turf start this spring would probably be good enough. The tepid pace scenario suits ‘PRIDE just fine; she led wire to wire three back and both career wins were accomplished on the front end. Conversely, LITTLE BIRD might be at the mercy of the pace, because she rallies from behind. But she is facing significantly easier for her second start back from a layoff; she tried the G2 San Clemente last out while returning from a layoff of more than four months. The 3-for-8 filly may fit for this $50k tag. A G INDY makes her first start of 2020, firsttime claim tag. Her pressing style should play well in a race likely to unfold at a tepid pace.

EIGHTH RACE

This stakes for Cal-bred 2yos is a do-over for TOUCHDOWN BROWN, last at even-money in a similar Cal-bred stakes last month. He had a legitimate alibi. He checked early, lost position while shuffled, then stayed there. The debacle does not reflect the ability he showed in his debut two back when he crushed by more than five lengths. ‘BROWN trained well since his last, adds blinkers, and gets a rider switch. Amends forthcoming. First-time starter FOUND MY BALL makes his career debut in a stakes race, which seems ambitious. But maybe not. The large-sized colt, nearly 17 hands, looked super in a team workout Aug. 23 (viewed on video); he crushed race-5 entrant Mac Daddy Too. ‘BALL is a full sibling to stakes winners Ralis and B Squared; two years ago owner-breeder Paul Reddam won this stakes race with first-time starter Listing. Drawn near the outside where he can steer clear of trouble, ‘BALL figures as a contender first time out. SCOOBY finished a closing third in the Graduation, then second in a turf route. He shortens back to one turn, and will be rolling late. GOOD WITH PEOPLE set a blazing pace and hit a wall at the eighth pole to finish second in the Graduation. Six furlongs is a challenge, but ‘PEOPLE certainly is fast and probably the one to catch.

NINTH RACE

SWEET SONNY was compromised by the race shape both recent turf sprints; she set the pace to deep stretch and then was swallowed by laterunners. Now she is entered for a claim tag for the first time, switches to the meet’s leading turf rider, and can win this maiden-50 with an up-front trip if she rations her speed just a little. SIENA SILK makes her career debut with fast works for a trainer who won with three of his last six first-time starters in turf sprints. Also-eligible KAELY’S CANDY is fast and bred for turf (by Twirling Candy). BELLA CHICA returns to her preferred sprint trip and will be running late.