Ny Traffic

20-1

STRENGTHS: This New York-bred has been nothing but honest and remarkably persistent since Saffie Joseph Jr. assumed his training over the winter, finishing in the money in all five starts at 3. Joseph has emerged over the last year or two as the dominant trainer on the year-round South Florida circuit, although he’s not afraid to branch out occasionally when circumstances dictate. He’s done a terrific job in reaching this stage with a colt just crying out to crash the upper crust. The horse has been reliable in showing effective speed wherever he has traveled, including in a runner-up finish behind Maxfield in the Matt Winn at Churchill and the justmiss against Authentic in the Haskell. His post-Haskell works at Saratoga have been spot-on, and he’s clearly heading into the Derby about as well as Joseph can get him.

WEAKNESSES: There’s solid speed signed on against him (King Guillermo, Authentic), so what kind of scenario could unfold to favor his forward-going tendencies? He’s been very reliable, yes, although his career win total (2) is modest in comparison to the Derby favorites, and neither triumph came in a stakes. He has yet to prove that he belongs with the very best, although he should have every opportunity to do so here.

BETTING VALUE: He’s one of a handful of 30-1-ish types who’ll come under serious consideration for the under slots on many players’ vertical tickets. However, visualizing him somehow putting away the other speed types and Tiz the Law before holding off any late comers is difficult, although it’s good to know he’ll be out there giving his all and can perhaps hold for part.

– Marty McGee

SIRE: Ny Traffic is from the second crop of the Unbridled’s Song horse Cross Traffic, who won the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap in 2013 after finishing second by a nose in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap. Cross Traffic was the leading freshman sire by earnings in 2018, when his daughter Jaywalk captured the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies to earn a divisional championship.

DAM: Ny Traffic is the first starter out of Mamie Reilley, who scored her only win in a six-furlong maiden-claiming event. Out of French Song, who scored the majority of her wins at six furlongs and had a maximum winning distance of a mile, she is a halfsister to Noir Et Bleu, who won at up to 1 1/16 miles, but in claiming company. Mamie Reilley’s granddam is Chilean 1000 Guineas winner Quilma, who was later a multiple graded stakes winner in the United States. Broodmare sire Graeme Hall has had modest success with a relatively small sample of foals out of his daughters, with six stakes winners led by multiple Grade 1 winner Curalina.

OUTLOOK: New York-bred Ny Traffic’s immediate female family is slanted toward speed, but pairing that with the Unbridled sire line should put middle distances well within his scope.

– Nicole Russo