Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
Plum Ali has right qualities
New York-based trainer Christophe Clement did not win the Juvenile Fillies Stakes last year at Kentucky Downs, but perhaps only because he had no starter in the race.
In 2016, Clement won the annual fixture for 2-year-old fillies with Lull, and in 2018 he won it again with Miss Technicality. In 2017, Best Performance finished second for Clement, and on Monday his stable stands an excellent chance of taking down another Juvenile Fillies with Plum Ali.
Plum Ali is the 5-2 morningline favorite in the one-mile race, breaking from post 6, a good draw, under Tyler Gaffalione. Eleven others are part of the field’s main body with two more entrants stuck on the also-eligible list. No wonder so many folks want to run: The race has only one starter with more than one victory, making it a glorified first-level allowance that carries a $500,000 purse, provided a horse is a Kentucky-bred.
Plum Ali, by First Samurai out of Skipping, by Stroll, was bred in Kentucky but debuted in New York, winning her lone start, which came July 23, by two lengths. It was a decisive, professional victory from an unraced 2-year-old in a turf route, and Clement has proven masterful in imparting important lessons to his young stock. His intimate knowledge of European racing helps him select the right horses for the Euro-style Kentucky Downs course, where undulations require balance, athleticism, and poise, and Plum Ali is very likely to suit the new circumstances. Her Beyer Speed Figure of 70 towers over her rivals’ numbers, and she easily could go off well below her 5-2 morning line.
Cecile’s Chapter raced with more greenness in her lone start, but she was effective, rallying from a stalking position to win an Indiana Grand maiden turf route by seven lengths on Aug. 24. Cecile’s Chapter has gotten less time to recover than did Plum Ali and probably needs a misfire from the favorite to beat her. Cecile’s Chapter is trained by Brad Cox. He also sends out Beautiful Star, who might be the equal of Cecile’s Chapter.
The race’s two-time winner is the Wesley Ward-trained Sunshine City, who probably isn’t good enough. Sunshine City went to Royal Ascot off a mere $25,000 maiden-claiming debut win, finished ninth in the Windsor Castle Stakes, and then beat five foes in an Indiana allowance race, where she was the 1-2 favorite for good reason.
Juvenile Stakes
The $500,000 Juvenile, for 2-year-olds at one mile, looks more complicated than the fillies race. Dreamers Disease, who posted a front-running, five-length win in an Ellis Park turf-route maiden last month, got top billing on the morning line at odds of 5-2. But favoritism here could fall to several different entrants, including Outadore, a sharp Saratoga debut winner for Ward. Outadore won a turf-sprint maiden race July 26 by nearly three lengths and looks like a decent candidate to stretch to a oneturn mile Monday. But the pick to win is another Saratoga maiden winner, Shaw dy shaw dy shaw dy.
Trained by Jorge Abreu, Shaw dy shaw dy shaw dy raced inside, ran into the rail at one point, and had to come between horses to post a half-length victory. It was a lot to overcome for an inexperienced horse, and with a cleaner trip on Monday, which seems likely with plenty of pace to spread this field, Shaw dy shaw dy shaw dy stands a good chance to improve.
One Dreamer Stakes
With a better trip, Passing Out might have won the De La Rose Stakes last out at Saratoga, but because she finished third in that $75,000 race, she qualifies for the $300,000 One Dreamer on Monday at Kentucky Downs.
The one mile 70-yard One Dreamer is open to fillies and mares who haven’t won a stakes during 2020, and Passing Out has faced stronger competition this season than she meets here.
After starting her campaign with a Tampa Bay allowance romp, Passing Out finished third in the Beaugay, won easily by the elite turf mare Rushing Fall. She fit much better in the De La Rose, and even after racing too aggressively in the early stages, Passing Out had plenty of run in the homestretch. What she didn’t have was room to maneuver, and a troubled trip led to a third-place finish behind a pair of Chad Brown-trained horses. Julien Leparoux has the mount Monday for trainer Shug McGaughey.
Harmless and Speedy Solution provide the pace, and if one were to shake free, she’d be dangerous. Graham Motion tries Varenka, whose best 2019 form would put her squarely in the mix after two somewhat disappointing showings this year.