ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, ALLEY OOP JOHNNY

FIRST RACE

BODES WELL won both handicap starts last upon arrival from England and has run well in both starts so far this year; game effort on the lead in the Kiser last time vs. Snap Decision. IRANISTAN has struggled a bit since getting off to that highlypromising start to his jump career a couple of years ago but the class drop did the trick last time as he fought back gamely to defeat favored Must See The Doc with five of these same rivals behind him. NEW MEMBER tired behind IRANISTAN last time but is now third off the layoff for top connections and he jumped well up here a couple of years ago before missing a lot of time.

SECOND RACE

BUILD TO SUIT makes just his second start of the year after apparently missing some time training following the Commentator; cuts back to a better distance for this with the back form to be hard on this field and not looking at his being offered for a tag as a huge negative as he is a 6yo without conditions who has already endured a lengthy layoff. FORT WORTH holds the upside that the top one lacks and he is clearly a talented colt for top connections; nice return from the long layoff last time when easily handling a pair of solid rivals who returned to run 1-2 here last weekend. THE CARETAKER is in tough in the face of the top two bug his recent form is solid and he goes off the claim for a top trainer.

THIRD RACE

THREATLEVELMIDNITE debuted sprinting at Monmouth and chased the pace four-wide before tiring in the stretch; bred to stretch out for a trainer who has excellent numbers with horses like this: maiden, second career start, turf: 17 for his last 38, 45%, $3.48 ROI - 2 for 4 going sprint to route in that sample. EDITOR AT LARGE was purchased in Europe as a yearling and, as expected, has a distance and turf pedigree, being out of a winning dam who is a full-sister to stakes winner and Group 1-placed runner Southern France. DOMAIN EXPERTISE is a stablemate of EDITOR AT LARGE and also has a big turf pedigree being by Kitten’s Joy and a half-brother to Sombeyay, who won the Grade 3 Canadian Turf at Gulfstream earlier this year, after just missing in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame up here last summer as a 3yo.

FOURTH RACE

REVENIO has one win from his 12 dirt starts to date, and he otherwise has not come close to finding the winner’s circle, but that one win came in his most recent start over a fast track where he showed improved speed while cutting back and was clear to the wire with a 74 Beyer; cuts back again, this time while switching from turf to dirt. KABOB isn’t as fast as some of his rivals yet but he has the upside that they lack and exits a nice win over maidens claimers earlier at the meet; can easily improve enough to factor here. LIAM’S FIRE ran a race vs. better horses two back that would make him tough here should he repeat it; drops with blinkers going on and he has enough speed to be involved from the start.

FIFTH RACE

PER CAPITA ran well in both starts last year without winning and he has come back to finish first in both starts so far as a 4yo, though he was disqualified from the maiden win the first time; has the distance question to answer as he stretches back out in his first start for Pletcher. CANDY TYCOON is also trainer by Pletcher and he has a Grade 2-placing in his recent past; was no real factor despite getting 2nd over course and distance last time but he has clearly improved since being stretched out in distance and fits here with his typical race. HUNT THE FRONT finished just behind CANDY TYCOON in that last one after making a late run from out of it; has been facing better and will have no trouble with the distance, but his lack of speed is an issue.

SIXTH RACE

TOPPER T showed speed and tired in his first start off the claim last time when bumped up in class; can revert to rating tactics here with a ton of pace signed on, which could lead to a trip more like the one he pulled two back when finishing a game 2nd to Reed Kan. LIFE IN SHAMBLES will also appreciate having some pace to run as he goes off the claim for Rob Atras - 3 for 6 off the claim so far at this meet, with two others finishing 2nd; ran a race three back at Gulfstream that would contend in here. WEGOTOLDYOUGOTSOLD was scratched from a cheaper race here on Saturday to await this spot to make his first start off the re-claim for Rudy; has a layoff to overcome but his typical race makes him tough in here.

SEVENTH RACE

NO ORDINARY TIME debuts going long on turf with some pedigree as a half to Current, a Grade 3 winner routing on grass, from a dam who is a sister to turf stakes winner Filimbi; draws a good post on the inside for Shug, who is plenty capable with a first time starter under these conditions. JULIE BIRD is a sister to four winners and he dam is a sister to Desert King, who was a multiple Group 1 winner and champion 3yo in Ireland during his career; expect her to be ready as she debuts for top connections. LOVESTRUCK a Godolphin homebred by top sire Tapit and a half-sister to Scat Daddy, who was a multiple Grade 1 winner in his racing career before going on to become a top turf sire.

EIGHTH RACE

BREAKING THE RULES went the wrong way after a highly-promising start to his career on turf and had the plug pulled last summer after disappointing in a pair of graded stakes races; has returned from the layoff with a pair of solid efforts vs. allowance rivals and he has the tactical speed to pull the right trip in this short field that lacks for pace. LARGENT can take advantage of that lack of early speed and will likely find himself on the early lead here; got in an easy prep at Colonial last time and he was earning competitive figures earlier this year in Florida. OLYMPICO is getting a little class relief here after facing stakes rivals in his first six starts since arriving from France; the lack of pace in this race works against him, but perhaps the addition on blinkers will keep him more involved early,

NINTH RACE

TEAM MERCHANTS broke from the outside post in his debut in early August and wound up chasing the pace while four-wide around the turn, before tiring in the stretch behind an impressive winner who will be one of the favorites in the Hopeful later on the card; can put that experience to use as he makes his second start and a sharper break would go a long way toward improving his chances. TEN FOR TEN by new sire Frosted and from a strong female family that includes graded stakes winners Creative Cause, Vexatious and Destin; threat if ready. SPEAKER’S CORNER is by a versatile sire in Street Sense and he is the first foal from this mare, who didn’t race but is a sister to the talented stakes winner Long River and out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Round Pond.

TENTH RACE

THE BIG S does not land in the easiest spot for his return, but it’s not exactly the toughest either, and this colt showed potential as a 3yo while perhaps being rushed just a bit too much; eligible to improve if he is ready to fire off the bench with blinkers on. CUCINA switched back to dirt for the first time since last summer up here in his most recent start and finished an even 4th in a very tough race for the level; versatile 3yo doesn’t face as strong a group this time and he is likely to be a fair price in here. BINKSTER also ran in that 7/18 race for the level where he bumped into subsequent Amsterdam winner Yaupon, and he ran back in another tough spot when 3rd in the Tale of the Cat; consistent gelding hasn’t won a race in nearly a year but he has speed and has landed in a much better spot here.

ELEVENTH RACE

ALLEY OOP JOHNNY was holding his own vs. some solid competition over the winter in Florida and he ran a winning race when contesting a solid pace from the start and just failing to last when dropped in class last time; looks like the main speed here as he steps back up into a protected spot. MR. KRINGLE dropped to this level out of the Pennine Ridge last time and was defeated as a heavy favorite, but that win is looking much less disappointing lately with Winning Factor returning to win for the third straight time with an 83 Beyer in his next start; nice fit. ELUSIVE RULER won his turf debut earlier this year with a 77 Beyer then bumped into a pair of talented Chad Brown-trained runners in his next two starts; looking to rebound off the claim after disappointing as the favorite when dropped in class earlier in the meet.

TWELFTH RACE

LONESOME FUGITIVE had a little trouble coming clear from behind a wicked pace in his most recent start, before finishing up well for 2nd behind the talented Don Juan Kitten; puts blinkers on and appears to be training forwardly into his second

start vs. other winners. MYAMANOI made an underrated debut behind subsequent Pilgrim and Breeders’ Cup winner Structor up here as a 2yo, then took a big step forward to easily overwhelm weaker in his next start; held her own in stakes company back in February and now moves back to turf off the layoff. SUCCEEDANDSURPASS appeared to have some potential while winning early and then placing in a Grade 2 upon his arrival from Ireland as a 3yo; hasn’t run up to his best in his first two starts of the year but is third off the layoff for a new trainer with blinkers off.

THIRTEENTH RACE

JACKIE’S WARRIOR overcame trouble to win in his better-than-it-looks debut, and he defeated a very talented colt in the process, then returned to easily handle that same rival in the Saratoga Special last time with an 88 Beyer; faces a pair of talented colts here but has an experience edge and draws outside of both of them. REINVESTMENT RISK debuted early in the meet going six and could hardly have been more impressive while looking comfortable tracking from the rail, and then blowing through to quickly take over en route to a commanding win with something to spare; steps right up with the top figure in the field. MUTASAABEQ was also an impressive debut winner early in the meet as he readily overpowered his field despite not being quick from the gate; Into Mischief colt is the kind of 2yo the Hopeful is made for.

FOURTEENTH RACE

GUNMAN draws out wide but is getting the right drop in class for his second start as a 3yo after doing his best with a decent trip vs, better off the bench last time, only to come up short. MOHJESTIC hasn’t been seen since going evenly in debut way back in March of 2019, where he broke a bit slowly; returns as a new gelding for a dangerous trainer. STARE DECISIS has failed to factor vs. better in his first three starts so takes the logical drop in class for top connections; leaves the Brown barn his new trainer has been making a name for himself up here during this meet.