ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SCRAPS

FIRST RACE

HIGH DEFF ran great in his debut even though it was two turns on the turf. This colt didn’t get any pace help that day either. Turf breeding is solid while most horses improve the second time they do anything. Oh, two of three sibs are multiple winners in Europe. PRECISE is by a 13% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. His dam went 12-3-1-0 and earned 81K (5-1-1-0 on the grass for 30K and won grass debut). Two of three sibs won on the grass. This colt cost 380K and of course his works are perfectly spaced for team Pletcher. AMERICAN PHENOM cost 340K yet was in for a maiden claiming tag of 50K in his debut where he was taken by Crichton. There is nothing wrong with first two starts but this colt is bred to love a route of ground something he gets today for the first time.

SECOND RACE

MAYSTART was fractious in her debut but still beat half the field home. She drops in class and exits a key race where 4 of 8 returned to win with Beyer speed figures of 73, 72, 63, and 66. She adds a full furlong today and draws outside. The Danner barn is 33% when dropping into maiden claimers from the special weight ranks. MISS MIKAELA ran well in her debut and was well supported on the tote. Both sibs beat winners while earning 75K and 83K. Expect some speed in this spot. BELLA SERENA beat one home in her debut but she was trying seven furlongs and that’s tough. She draws much better today. Lone sibling is 20-3-5-5 for 42K. DOITTOGETHER is by a 13% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam was un-raced. All four sibs won with three having beat winners. FEARLESS IDEAS is by a 1 for 7 debut sire. Her dam went 18-0-0-1 for 10K. This is her first foal. IRAZU is by a 14% debut sire. Her dam went 7-1-0-0 for 8K. One of two sibs won.

THIRD RACE

HAPPY CONSTITUTION gets in light and puts the blinkers ON all while adding a full furlong. She holds a double Beyer advantage and is the absolute one to beat. COCO VIN is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. Four of five sibs won with three having beat winners. Two sibs earned over 140K. One sibling won its 2YO debut. Three sibs won routing. VILLAGE QUEEN ran just fine in her debut and puts the blinkers ON for her second start. This barn is 19% with said equipment move. This filly has worked twice since her debut and we are a fan of that. CASA CHA CHA is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam went 15-3-2-1 and earned 69K. Lone sib is 1-0-0-0.

FOURTH RACE

MAKEME DREAM is bred to love the grass and has tried nothing but the green in her career. She is very consistent as she has gotten a 77 Beyer in three of her last four starts. This barn is 20% second off a medium layoff. This filly has worked twice since her return try and has every right to improve in this spot. A small knock in that there isn’t much pace in this race. KELSEY’S CROSS showed better tactical speed last out and ran great. She should be up closer and personal again. Jock switch is noted. ALWAYS SHOPPING missed a Beyer top by one point the only time she tried the grass (3 back). She did so versus stakes foes. Zayas was at the controls that day and returns today. We would not be shocked if this filly showed some speed with the blinker addition.

FIFTH RACE

FINA ran evenly in her debut and beat over half the field home. Trainer stats are very good especially 25% with 2nd time starters and 31% turf to dirt. MIAHSOLOMIAH has some speed and draws inside. Turf breeding isn’t that great so what if this filly is simply better on the dirt? There isn’t that much pace in this race. If this filly can break nicely

then that would be a huge edge. FIERY PRINCESS did run better last out. This filly might have some sneaky speed. SHE’S THE JACKPOT is by a 11% debut sire. Her dam went 48-6-8-6 and earned 109K. Lone sib is 15-4-3-1 and earned 151K.

SIXTH RACE

TWO CENTS WORTH just missed in her only turf start and it came back in March. She should be more mature now which means faster. Trainer stats are very good and across the board. We even like this outside post. COOKIE COVE looks better if you discount off the turf previously. Speed is main weapon but there is other zip to the inside and out. DINNER AT FIVE is a turf sprint specialist. We can excuse her last two starts (mile, off turf). This filly gets some pace to chase and that should make for a good trip.

SEVENTH RACE

MIDNIGHT GEM gets a second shot at this level while her most recent was more than encouraging. This field didn’t come up very tough. This barn is 20% with their claimers. UPSY DAISY DO has a penchant for less. Even so, she often gets bet. Those Beyers in the 50’s not that long ago would fit here. THE GOSPEL OF JOHN sheds the blinkers and gets in light. In this race we are looking for anything different. Class drop can’t hurt but why only one local work?

EIGHTH RACE

SCRAPS comes in fresh and ready off the long layoff. New barn is 25% off this type of layoff. Works are perfect and we mean perfect. This Arindel homebred gets a ton of pace to chase and loves this sod. He was getting very good before the layoff and we think he can pick right up where he left off. LOUDER THAN BOMBS is a deep closer that gets to save all the early ground and gets great race flow. He just missed beating graded foes only two back. The long layoff is the X factor. SAILING SOLO is pure speed. But so are a few others. Edge to him in that he draws inside all the other zip. This horse ran a Beyer top in his last two starts and both came on this sod. MORNING STRIDE is in our supers.

NINTH RACE

PRINCESS BETTY finds a logical spot to try first time winners. We like that connections want another elongated sprint. Versatile style is a plus and this filly has worked twice since her maiden breaker. INDEPENDENT MISS is another recent maiden winner but this filly took 11 tries to break her maiden. Sometimes horses that take a while to win get a big confidence boost out of it and come right back to run well again even against first time winners. That seven furlong try two back bodes well for today’s 6 1/2 furlongs. MANDAMUS is the X factor. She just ran a bullet best of 69 work. This barn is 30% off this type of layoff. Zayas gets a leg up and he is 38% for this barn locally. A small knock in that an elongated sprint off a layoff is tough.

TENTH RACE

POWER ran well on this sod only four back. Recent tries are solid but they came on the dirt and this gelding is bred for the turf (354 turf Tomlinson). Here comes a stalking trip off a legit pace. SWEET GIANT ran great 3 and 4 back on this sod. Washed off two back while most recent the same but off a medium layoff. This colt gets in light and should love a return to the green. O DRISCOLL is by a 13% debut turf sire. His dam went 4-0-0-0 on the green. This is her first grass foal. This colt tried a flat mile for the first time last out and ran a solid second. Turf breeding is actually quite good (371 turf Tomlinson).