ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, PLUM ALI

FIRST RACE

MR MATUSCHEK ran well as a 2yo, finishing second in his debut over the Kentucky Downs course — experience always a big plus here — and has made the improvement as a 3yo, though his season started late, one wants to see. His most recent race, his second of the year, came with considerable trouble, and he finished very well. More Than Ready on the top of pedigree, sure, bu all kinds of 1 1/2-mile leaning influences on the dam’s side. He’ll get the jump on horses like PAINTSVILLE, whom I do give a solid win chance. His finishing fraction in a strong performance last out at Ellis Park was good, but equally notable vis a vis this stretch to 12 furlongs was the sustained nature of his run. GHOSTLORE had trouble last time, and while a ninerace maiden now, I suspect the 1 1/2 miles will suit him.

SECOND RACE

Had to look twice when seeing CORRUZE entered for the $62,500 claiming price, but upon further consideration, that need not automatically be seen as a negative. Were he to win and get claimed here, the payoff would be more than $120,000, this for a 4yo with $180K in career earnings. The short turf sprints have been too sharp for him, but this longer one could really work. HIGH CRIME got bogged down (kind of literally) at the rail over a soft Ellis course last out, still running pretty well and holding his strong 2020 form. He’ll be on or near the lead and figures to stick, but I wouldn’t be betting him to win at something close to the published odds. HOLIDAY STONE’s two races this form cycle are well below his standard, but I’ll take him here in hopes he can get back to his good KD form from last season.

THIRD RACE

MOONCHILD is the first foal to race out of a sister to graded-stakes-class turf performer Dawn the Destroyer. That is, well, a very, very lively work pattern she brings into her career debut for barn that won with 2yo first-timers in MSWs both Friday and Saturday at CD. They (B Cox barn) have run surprisingly few 2yo firsters at Kentucky Downs, but guessing this one is live. Speaking of relatively few KD starters, trainer Chad Brown now has a Kentucky string. He hasn’t run at horse at KD since 2015 but will be in action opening day, starting with FLUFFY SOCKS. Paceless debut, solid enough finish, hardly anything like a standout, but a likely contender. TARA HILL another who wound up trying to rally into a false pace turf-routing in career debut, this one at Ellis rather than Saratoga. Some concern that she’ll lack any positional speed again, and that can be a real hindrance over this course.