FOURTH RACE

DO WITH PRIDE had compromising trouble last out at Arlington and just two races ago beat likely favorite HIGH NOON RIDER. There are other races validating that victory and like High Noon Rider — and unlike most entrants here - this class level is on the low end of what Do With Pride has been facing. From a forward position while High Noon Rider comes from well back. HNR does have a positive race over the course. Surprised he’s maintained this level as long as he has. Likely underlay. OVERZEALOUS been nearly exclusively dirt-racing but the lone Fair Grounds turf start last season says turf is just as good. He’s one of several here up in class from $5K starters, however.

FIFTH RACE

ROYAL PRINCE a green beginning to career debut last out, which might have made the difference between an encouraging second and winning since the open-lengths, sharp winner of that Ellis Park grass maiden went wire to wire. Two lengths clear of third in a spread-out field that suggests the race was pretty fast. No price but looks tough. Trainer Mike Maker has started hitting much more frequently with first-time starters, and KITTEN’S FIRSTLOVE looks live. Encouraging work pattern and fifth foal from a very productive dam who already has produced two turf-route stakes winners. SHALDAG has some second-start upside coming out of the same race as the top pick. Asmussen barn, from a huge sample, has a plus ROI with all second-time starters.

SIXTH RACE

Think FIRST WAVE will like this longer turf sprint at least as much, and probably more, than the shorter ones she tried in her last two starts. Isolate her grass sprints and she has a win and two seconds, and the mare that beat her last time at CNL, who was entered for the $25K tag, is a fairly accomplished and capable turf-sprinter. MADAME OVERSERVED based on her three-start 2019 form might be a better horse on grass than dirt, and her recent dirt form itself makes her very competitive. LEA’S PRINCESS was on the best part of the FG turf course in her maiden win and faced a short field last time - I’m a little skeptical that bare form provides an accurate measure.

SEVENTH RACE

FLATOYA was an even fourth in her only turf try but failed to go the lead that day, appears to be more comfortable racing in front, and could control the pace if allowed to go out of the gate in this competitive sprint maiden. The pedigree is there for the surface switch. JIM’S BRONZE STAR has only started in 5 1/2-furlong races and looks like a horse who would better suit this 6 1/2-furlong trip around a gentler turn. Won’t hold the sub-par try last out at CNL too much against her. MORE THAN UNUSUAL cuts back from routes in her third start, but is that the answer? Lack of speed and rail draw could lead to a tough trip at a fairly short price.

EIGHTH RACE

Trainer C Clement won this race in 2018 (Miss Technicality) and 2016 (Lull) and sent out secondplace finisher Best Performance in 2017. PLUM ALI was professional and effective closing into a slow pace in a convincing debut win turf-routing in an SAR MSW and she will be formidable here at a short price. Only horse with a “logical” claim at an upset is CECILE’S CHAPTER, who looked greener in her debut, an IND turf-route MSW route, than did the top pick. LONG MONDAY listed at 30-1 on the line despite a solid enough last-start Ellis MSW win making her turf and two-turn debut. Doubt she’s that long a price but the lower-profile connections create some value.

NINTH RACE

PASSING OUT was all right last year at age 3 but has really improved in 2020 - even if she has only an allowance win from three starts to show for it. Ran into Rushing Fall two back and last out at SAR was her own worst enemy in the early going, racing rank for the better part of a quarter mile around the first turn and onto the backstretch. She settled from there, but then had an extremely traffic-filled homestretch while full of run despite over-racing early. Worked five (!) times since then and should be tough. Things haven’t quite worked out this season for VARENKA in a number of ways, nor has she yet really seemed to show her best, but she has a platform now for a jump back to her better 2019 form, which is good enough to contend. SPEEDY SOLUTION’s last-out, front-end KEE allowance-race score might’ve been a little hollow, but maybe it has more substance. She’d been racing on synthetic tracks and isn’t exposed as an older horse on turf.

TENTH RACE

SHAWDYSHAWDYSHAWDY had, to say the least, an eventful trip in his career debut, but bulled between horses and won anyway with a solid finishing time. He’s since kept to an active work pattern, keeps the jockey, and might be a fair price tackling some decent horses with higher speed figures. OUTADORE also won well in his debut at Saratoga, but that was a sprint, and one suspects he gets bet like staying the mile is a foregone conclusion. PIVOTAL MISSION made nice first to second start progress though he so far has appeared to be fairly one-paced.

ELEVENTH RACE

SNAPPER SINCLAIR is two for two at Kentucky Downs and handles this grass course like no other. The connections have kept him to a quiet summer just awaiting the rich Tourist Mile and despite winning at 10-1 a year ago, he’ll be a price once again. PARLOR comes off the very best race of his entire career but has been given two months to recover from it. Wasn’t at that level, but has been firing consistently since trainer M Maker claimed him, and he’s had previous favorable experience over the KD course. FLAVIUS has thrown hints without yet really delivering but now might be the time to guess he breaks through with the price rising to a higher level.