ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MARGARET’S JOY

FIRST RACE

JORDAN’S KITTEN’s best race the last two calendar years came last season at Kentucky Downs in a race at this class level and about this distance where he missed by a nose. Has struggled in his last two, but those came after the IND grass course got soaked with rain over several weeks and became tricky for many horses to handle. FWIW, this jockey rode him to victory three starts back. FOUR K’S had a wide trip from well off a ridiculously slow pace last out at GP in a performance that under-rates his chances here. Previous race fits this spot and trainer W Ward is not running him for a tag after a freshening. FUN PADDY finished eighth last summer in his lone start over the KD course while facing considerably stronger competition than this. Improved during August with switch to turf and HOF owner-trainer moves him out of claimers and into a starter allowance, a positive sign.

SECOND RACE

KNIGHTS KEY looked like a lost $40K claim from December in his first several starts of 2020 but has popped back into surprisingly good form. The stretch back out to middle distances from sprints was part of that, but the move to turf last time produced a notably strong run, a last-to-first romp punctuated by a 23.02 final quarter mile. No works since, which is fine, and a positive class hike. Not like the turf form came out of nowhere - summer of 2017 he won a $40K turf claimer at CD, and after a subsequent, lesser turf race at SAR, he didn’t work again for several months, suggesting he was injured during the race. Slightly concerning was the flat performance he delivered in a KD 6.5f N1X alw back in Aug 2016. We’ll live with that. Basically, you have three “logical” contenders here, then chaos. I’ll stick with the logicals. SNIPER KITTEN priced at 7-2 on the line but I suspect he’s favored over Knights Key. Lots of layoff lines followed by a steep drop in February, then a long layoff, which is not good. On the other hand, he showed a fondness for the unusual local course last season. Doubt INFINITE can stay the trip but he’ll be prominent from the start & one can’t rule it out.

THIRD RACE

Lots of 2nds and 3rds, and he’s 16-29 third or better, but Wesley Ward over the last five years in Kentucky Downs 2yo maiden races has only three winners. Still, in a very tough race to figure, siding with the Wardtrained ROYAL APPROVAL, who was a solid enough second in her debut to stable-mate Campanelle, since then a winner of the G2 Queen Mary and the G1 Prix Morny. Softer ground and a poor start likely ruined Ascot chances. Figure she has enough speed to get over from wide draw. Trainer Brad Cox won with a pair of 2yo firsters last week at Churchill, though his record with such horses at Kentucky Downs is modest. Still, DEMETER, whose dam is a sister to multiple gradedstakes winner and successful broodmare It’s Tricky, looks well prepped for unveiling. FLUTISTE had what looks like a useful debut at Colonial, while none of the other first-timers here stand out to me.

FOURTH RACE

No Kentucky Downs first-time turf winners the last five years for trainer M Maker, but we’ll see if that trend ends with WELL CONNECTED. Big maiden win three back came at this 6.5-furlong trip, and maybe he disliked chasing two back and a wet track last out. Figures to make the lead from the rail. Deeper female family implications suggest turf would be fine. SMILE BRYAN’s top race three back came around one turn, albeit over one mile, and he was less effective in subsequent two-turn starts. Have to take into account only four of 16 career starts have come on grass. UNCAPPED has been struggling and not progressing but did run the best race of his life last summer in lone start over the KD course.

FIFTH RACE

MARGARET’S JOY’s return from an 17-month layoff Aug. 9 at Ellis showed she came back from the break capable of the same performance as before, and if you assume she was less than 100-percent fit for that start, which seems fair, there should be more to come. The stretch from middle distances to 10.5 furlongs seems a distinct plus since her full brother, Spooky Channel, won the 1 1/2-mile McKnight this past winter. Probably well below morning-line odds, unFORTUNAtely. FORTUNA listed as the 3-1 favorite and she’s fine, but I wouldn’t want to play at that price. Looked like she was still figuring out the object of the activity in her last two,