KENTUCKY DOWNS

though either of those races fits this spot. LONGPANTS

REQUIRED a grinding type who’s only been out as far as nine furlongs and might enjoy longer.

SIXTH RACE

More than strictly distance-limited LADY WORTHINGTON looks like a filly who performs better when she can establish a clear early lead. Think that can happen here with an alert break from the rail, and since she won over 6f at BEL and nearly stayed a mile two winters ago at GP in a race won by the good filly Cafe Americano, maybe she can see out this 6.5f trip. Speed-figure wise. ORIGINATOR never has run better than when she was sixth in a KD stakes race last summer, her lone start over the course. She appears to have plateaued but perhaps the suitability to the irregular racing conditions can help her contend in a muddle of a field. YES IT’S GINGER despite moving up a notch in class was 3-10 last out at Ellis, which says something about the competition, but she’s two for two since the long layoff, could get a good clean pressing trip, and as a 4yo with seven starts easily could still have upside.

SEVENTH RACE

BORN GREAT is a 4yo who didn’t debut until June, and his work pattern since then is spotty, so I’d need a fair price - 5/1 or greater - to bet him to win. That said, his race was quite encouraging, as he showed willingness racing in heavy traffic much of the way, lacking room in midstretch before finishing with a nice burst and galloping out in front once clear. Narrow call in a difficult race. Mentioned trainer M Maker’s uninspiring first-turf results in an earlier race today, and here we find another first-turfer in FUGITIVE. Dam was a solid turf performer and this horse will bring speed to a potentially relatively paceless race. Eye-catching recent works. LAUTREC finally back for second career start after a fall 2019 debut. Decent dirt debut and the dam’s side of the pedigree is all turf. Asmussen barn has a second-time starter, Tap Daddy, win a KD maiden race for Winchell a couple years ago.

EIGHTH RACE

I have to look at this race first of all through the prism of pace: the entries are heavily loaded with front runners, including need-the-lead types, and all evidence points to a strong, contested pace. Of the two most qualified off-pace entrants, SENTRY ought to be the longer price than MARZO, and value considerations aside, I prefer Sentry. This horse was seen as a 10-12 furlong kind of horse until about this time last year, and after being cut back to middle distances he ran the three best races of his life, including a recent one at SAR. Toss the off-turf showing last time and we’ve got something. Interestingly, it’s Marzo who gets the cut back now from much longer races, and I;m just not convinced he’ll appreciate it as much as Sentry has. Didn’t run a step over a boggy course last out at SAR, which can be forgiven, and does have a positive past KD race, KROY, claimed out of last by 31-percent offthe-claim Diodoro barn, seemingly with this race in mind, rates at the top of the pace players for me. He has zero history of passing horses in the stretch.

NINTH RACE

GET WESTERN holds some longshot appeal given his convincing win in a similar spot (97 Beyer) racing over the Kentucky Downs course last summer. Appeared to loathe the nd soft ground last out a Ellis and this jockey has won with him before. Quick recent KEE work. Needs to shake loose. HEMBREE apparently opting for this restricted stakes over the much tougher Tourist on Monday and should fit well. Not quite at the peak of his powers — a level I’m surprised he ever reached - but also not far from them, either. Two KD starts produced a win and a good fourth in the 2019 Tourist. ENGLISH BEE on a six-race losing streak but absolutely can win this if he comes close to his fine second behind the excellent Factor This two back at CD. Encouraging work pattern but no KD experience.

TENTH RACE

The returns lean more toward solid than spectacular, but blinkers on works for the Graham Motion barn, and on Aug. 29 he had a blinkers-on turf-stakes winner, Bye Bye Melvin, at Saratoga. BLAME DEBBIE wouldn’t need much of an equipment change boost if she needs one at all - to drop from stakes and win this long-distance allowance. If last year’s KD meet was any guide - and the weather this week is similar — her speed will be an asset. Leaning on past KD success can work well at a course that be a challenge, and CAMBELIZA’s maiden win came over this KD distance a year ago. Likely the sodden going at LRL last time compromised her comeback performance. SURSUM CORDA seems a little bit tricky and I can’t really see her improving much off the last-start SAR maiden score, but she’s far from impossible.