ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, GALILEOS BALLERINA

FIRST RACE

EL GUAPO at first glance looks bad as he didn’t get a Beyer speed figure for those turf sprints and then got a zero figure for his recent dirt sprint. He stumbled at the start in his most recent and actually went favored. Notice there is no panicky drop and Trejos stays put. This colt might have the best speed and goes second time this dirt. BASTIEN LE BROWN had all kinds of trouble in his debut. His next two starts were both solid and now he draws outside. Versatile style goes best with this post. The one to beat? PERSPECTIVE is by a 11% debut sire. His dam was un-raced. Lone sib is 7-1-0-0 and earned 5K. This barn is 20% with debut maiden claimers. Gap in works from August 8th to 22nd is a bit worrisome.

SECOND RACE

GOLD COUNTRY is a new turf horse that goes second time two turns. Her sod breeding is OK and she has some tactical speed. This filly was 22-1 in her most recent and we expect that to carry over some today. AWESOME VIEW just ran well when on the grass. She has run evenly in all three of her career starts and that bodes well for today’s extra distance. Trainer stats are solid across the board. We don’t think this field came up all that tough. MY GLORY is by a 4% debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. This is dam’s first foal. Lack of breeding info helps the price and this filly still has the highest turf Tomlinson in the field at 350.

THIRD RACE

ST JOE VIPER draws outside and drops into restricted claimers. His last two starts aren’t so hot but we have pocket excuses for both of them. This gelding still has his speed while main pace foe draws inside. What if the 2 isn’t right? If our top pick can crack the other speed then he could be home free. RED FOG would love to see a two horse speed duel and we wouldn’t be shocked if it happened. This gelding has pressed the pace in his last two but we say he is much better with a target. A double speed duel target would be even better. AEQUOR might be too good for these off the class drop. He could even be quickest. The knocks are the layoff and big class drop plus the gap in works from August 4th to 22nd. With Zayas up, we think this horse can’t help a front end try. Our confidence level for this race is not high.

FOURTH RACE

STARSHIP ARAMIS has done little in his two return tries but they came for different barns and at different distances. We like that he still showed his tactical speed before tiring in both. Now he goes second time for new barn and drops in class. When feeling good this guy is capable of local figs in the 70’s and going this distance (3, 5, and 10 back). Recent bullet work is noted. FIRST AND THREE just ran better and might be circling around to an even better effort. He should revert to stalking ways today. DEXTER ROAD owns the best last race Beyer when checking in with an 80. As good as that way, it was still 6 points below his top. So is he still improving or are we gonna see a bounce today?

FIFTH RACE

GALILEOS BALLERINA was a step slow in her return try but still ran evenly. We think she can do much better today with a local race under her belt. She draws perfectly for a stalking trip behind a better than average pace. This filly beat special weights in her debut and did so going two turns on the grass. Oh, she did all that as 2YO. Vasquez stays put and this 3YO has the best upside in the field. AFFICIONADO continues to hit the board here while most recent a Beyer top. She wants to pass runners and gets good race flow so a new top is more likely than not. EXTRAVAGANT ROSIE drops in class and goes third off the layoff. She can pass runners so there is that. Her most recent was a Beyer top and she has improved her figure in three straight starts.

SIXTH RACE

BEYOND HEAVENLY will be a price as the outside runner will get all the attention. We like that this

filly keeps Jaramillo for a hot barn. Two of three sibs beat winners. We can forgive anyone’s debut especially with a poor break. GLADYS is by a 14% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 4-2-2-0 and earned 146K (won 2YO debut). Five of six sibs won including a debut winner. We feel as if we have forgotten something. Ah, this filly has a full sister by the name of Rachel Alexandra a multiple grade 1 stakes winner to the tune of 3.5mm. PENS STREET is by a 13% debut sire. Her dam went 21-4-0-4 and earned 208K. Lone sib is 2-0-0-1 and earned 7K. Some sharp works are noted. TOOLEGITTOQUIT is by a 10% debut sire. Her am went 15-3-2-0 and earned 100K. Lone sib is 3-1-0-0 and earned 9K.

SEVENTH RACE

GETTHE MUNY BERNIE took some time to make his debut at age 4 but we rather like that. He has done nothing but improve since. He is a new turf horse on top of everything. He draws the rail again and lures Vasquez. FULLY LOADED just figures. A huge Beyer in his most recent at 88. He got the same fig three back so we don’t think it is an outlier. A good sod might have tripped him up two back or maybe he just needed a break. The one to beat for sure. JOYFUL HEART has route speed on the cut back. That was a Beyer top in his most recent.

EIGHTH RACE

STAR JUANCHO blew the start in his turf debut last out so forget it. Second time with new barn can’t hurt and said barn is 27% turf to dirt. This horse has some back class and did win only two back. STARSHIP APOLLO has improved his Beyer in three straight. He has won going this distance and won’t be that far off whomever wants the front end. We love this guy’s will to win. SPA JAZZ loves this dirt but still returns off a long layoff. He was quite good going a flat mile here so 6 1/2 furlongs off the layoff isn’t too much different. He draws the attack post for the distance. We originally kicked around putting this guy on top as the layoff didn’t scare us while the price might entice.

NINTH RACE

SILVER SKY SMOOTH is by a 9% debut sire and a 7% debut turf sire. Her dam went 13-1-2-4 and earned 76K (won 2YO debut, 13K on the green). Lone sib is 28-1-5-4 and earned 29K (11-1-2-1 on the sod for 17K). Work tab is sharp including a bunch on the green. This barn is 26% with their debut turf runners. CAPE ELIZABETH is by a 11% debut sire and a 9% debut turf sire. Her dam went 12-3-1-1 and earned 54K (no turf). All 4 sibs won on the grass. YAFA ran great last out and has every right to improve second time routing and turfing. MS. MELANIA is by a 12% debut sire and a 0 for 9 debut turf sire. Her dam went 4-1-0-0 and earned 11K (IRE). This is dam’s first foal. V K STAR is by a 11% debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the weeds. Lone grass sib missed the board in only turf start.