ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SECOND GUESS

FIRST RACE

FLASH COPY puts races together for the first time since August of 2019 so that is a plus. Her return try was solid and at a not so easy 6 1/2 furlongs. If all stay in, then race flow is fine. Once again, this mare draws more outside than inside. IRISH PRIORITY just didn’t fire last out even though she went favored. It happens and more so with the girls. Class drop as meet ends is a favorite angle of ours. SECRET PRINCESS has speed and goes for a solid barn. Forget most recent as this filly found herself off the pace something she didn’t care for.

SECOND RACE

WIDOW OF NAIN should love the grass but has only

run OK in two turf starts. We can forgive her debut but not sure what happened last out. A new jock for this combined with the class drop equals .... one more shot. HIGHTAIL RUNAWAY did get a 46 Beyer in her debut at Oaklawn but then went downhill after that. Regroup with recent turf sprint and we thought it would have been better. Maybe that was a simple prep for today’s stretch-out. Second time grass is the key as turf breeding is quite good (343 turf Tomlinson). TWO SKIES has matching 44 Beyers in her only two turf starts. No one can beat that. Layoff muddies the waters though. This barn has a flat bet profit on the green.

THIRD RACE

SUSAN JONES won her debut and it came here. We can forgive turf try off the layoff two back. Not sure what happened last out. Class drop makes sense but more so the return of win rider in Dominguez. BELMAR BEAUTY just got a Beyer top. Class drop is big but makes sense in this spot. Is this the money run? MILLIE’S AN ANGEL might sit a nice trip and goes third off the layoff. All of her Oaklawn tries were good. What if this filly just didn’t like the turf?

FOURTH RACE

TRUE FRIEND goes third off the layoff and gets back to the dirt all for Asmussen. This is the easiest field that this filly has ever seen. Trainer stats are good across the board and of course there is a recent work. The absolute one to beat. MARIPOSA D’ORO has some sneaky speed and draws outside main pace foes if the front end is tried. Second time with new barn can only help while team Faucheux is 33% turf to dirt. A better price than our top pick. G’S MINE ran better just before the layoff. She had to need her return try while most recent another Beyer top of 47. Added distance is fine and this filly gets a weight break. She shouldn’t be too far off the early pace. ARMED MISSILE is by a 0 for 25 debut sire. Her dam went 34-3-4-3 and earned 47K. Lone sib is 15-2-1-1 and earned 14K.

FIFTH RACE

MAKATI PHIL is by a 16% debut turf sire. His dam went 2-0-0-0 on the weeds. Lone grass sib is 3-1-1-0 and earned 11K. A better break would help. This barn is 16% on the grass yet 0 for 17 with first turf runners. They are 36% with their 2nd time starters. This gelding is bred to love the green. DREWHUSTLE is by a 2 for 6 debut turf sire. His dam went 4-2-0-2 on the green and earned a nice 71K (won sod debut). This is dam’s first foal. This colt dwelt in his debut so that is certainly an excuse. This colt did cost 45K and is bred to like the grass. WISE ANCHOR makes first start on the grass for this sire. Dam is 11-3-3-1 on the green for 58K. This is dam’s first foal to try the weeds. Evangeline starts were promising.

SIXTH RACE

LIL PEASTOCH was never asked in her debut win but was claimed. New barn is 17% off the red tag. This filly has worked thrice since debut and new connections find a spot where this filly can’t be taken. Would be surprised to get double digits as morning line suggests. FLASH HANDS has hit the exacta in 13 of 22 starts. She cuts back a half furlong and drops in class. She has won from an outside post before. AFLEET MOON got a solid Beyer in debut win. Plenty of time between starts even if not a lot of works. New jock is noted as Flores continues recovery.

SEVENTH RACE

VINYL just wins. Horse for course doesn’t need a fast pace for best but gets good race flow anyway. This gelding has improved his Beyer in four straight. This post is a bit out there but not enough to deter us. NOBRAG JUSTFACT might have the best back class. We thought he found a good spot for return try and picked him on top only to watch him falter late. Second time this sod can only help plus second off the layoff. Expect a more patient ride today. PURSUIT OF A DREAM reared at the start in his return try and that should have been it. It wasn’t as he rallied to beat a few home. This guy has always liked this sod. Connections could have found a claiming race and probably avoided being taken but they opted for this instead. We like that confidence shown.

EIGHTH RACE

SECOND GUESS is slowly but surely improving. He has improved or tied his Beyer in six straight. He caught a wet track two back but still ran well. He tried 9 furlongs last out but still ran well. He is often a good price and is double digits on the morning line. One more time before the meet ends. SOCIAL MISFIT just won nicely and goes for Broberg. Cross entered on the 23rd though. Mora gets a leg up but is only 5% for this barn. KING PTOLEMY is a proven router that was running just fine before the layoff. He is a 9YO and sometimes these older horses need more than a few races to get back into the swing of things. Most recent was a tad better. Rail draw might help. Green is 3 for 9 for this barn locally.